Weather & Climate

1. Weather & Climate Dr. Dave DuBois NM State Climatologist http://weather.nmsu.edu Presented to PHYS110 students, April 22, 2010

3. Precipitation from Radar

4. What is Climate? • Climate is the average, expected value for a specific time (of day, year, etc.) • Weather is what actually happens • Climate is defined over long periods, typically more than 20 to 30 years time spans • Climate is not just about temperature • Climate change is not just about global warming

5. Predicting Weather • What is the current weather? • Observations of weather at surface and aloft • Does the current weather fit a pattern? • Fair weather ridge, stormy trough, monsoon, etc. • First guess from experience and education • Consult forecast models • Global to regional to sub-regional • Compare with statistics from the past • Look at both models and observations • Refine forecast • Repeat every few hours

6. AWIPS workstation

7. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) • Basic physical laws converted into a series of mathematical equations • Physical laws of motion (e.g. Newton’s 2nd law) • Conservation of energy (e.g. 1st law thermo) • Basic prediction • If we know initial condition of the atmosphere, we can solve the equations to obtain new values of variables at a later time

8. Basic Weather Prediction Model • A model in its simplest form

9. Parameterization • Simplify calculations to put into model • Example: cloud optical depth (how much solar radiation penetrates clouds)

10. NCEP Supercomputing • IBM Power6 p575 • 69.7 Teraflops Linpack • #36 Top 500 Nov 2008 • 156 Power6 32-way Nodes • 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz • 19,712 gigabytes memory • 170 terabytes of disk space • 100 terabyte tape archive Slide adapted from a talk by Ben Kyger, Director, NCEP Central Operations

13. Still Forecasts miss Storms • Hail storm in Boulder, Colorado • Lasted 20 minutes, 1-km wide path • 2 inches deep of hail, stripped leaves off trees • Before storm T=81F, after storm T=39F • NWS issued large hail warning only after seeing the radar as it was falling and reports from weather spotters

14. Schlatter et al., (2008) Monthy Weather Review

15. Demonstration http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/geog390_wxbrief.html http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/weather.html

16. Tipping Bucket Rain Gage Funnels precipitation into a bucket mechanism that tips when filled to a calibrated level. A magnet attached to the tipping mechanism actuates a switch as the bucket tips. The momentary switch closure is counted by pulse counting circuitry. NM Climate Center weather station at Leyendecker Farm Inside tipping bucket

17. Temperature/Humidity Sensor Combined temperature and relative humidity probe With cover off

18. 4” Diameter Rain Gage The rain gauge is composed of three parts: a funnel, a measuring tube, and a 4-inch diameter overflow tube, and a mounting bracket. The funnel directs the precipitation into the measuring tube and magnifies it by a factor of 10. This allows observers to report rainfall to the nearest 0.01" (one hundredth of an inch). The measuring tube, when full, will hold "one inch" of rainfall. When it rains more than one inch, the excess water collects in the overflow tube. This is rain and snow data is collected for this: http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=nm

19. Satellite Based Near Surface Temperature In the bulk troposphere, March 2011 was the 14th coolest in the past 33 years http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

20. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenhouse_Effect.svg

21. CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data 1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica 1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica 2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature Graph Sources: 2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data 1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data 1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

22. CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data 1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica 1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica 2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature Graph Sources: 2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data 1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data 1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

23. CO2 Graph Sources: Temperature Graph Sources: 2001-1958: South Pole Air Flask Data 1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome, Antarctica 1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor Dome, Antarctica 2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data Temperature Graph Sources: 2000-1979: Satellite stratospheric data 1979-1871: S. Hemisphere ground temp. data 1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice Core Data

24. The Historical Temperature Data vs. Carbon Dioxide & Methane http://www.durangobill.com/Swindle_Swindle.html

25. http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/600px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.pnghttp://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/600px-Temp-sunspot-co2.svg.png

26. http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1003/1003.6045.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_global_warming_theory

27. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas I searched and did not find an equivalent graph of non-athropogenic changes.

29. Polynomial curves fitting points generated with a sine function. Red line is a first degree polynomial, green line is second degree, orange line is third degree and blue is fourth degree http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curve_fitting

31. http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.htmlhttp://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.html

32. http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.htmlhttp://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.html

33. http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.htmlhttp://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/Nr_7_March_2__6_Climate_modeling/C__How_climate_models_work_5iy.html