Extreme Heat and Human Health Richard B. Rood and Marie S. O’Neill

1. Extreme Heat and Human HealthRichard B. Rood and Marie S. O’Neill Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood December 17, 2010

2. Funding Acknowledgments • Reducing social disparities of heatwaves impacts in a changing climate • Grant from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Sept. 2008-August 2011), Grant R18 EH000348-01 • Investigators: M. O’Neill, E. Parker, R. Rood (U of Michigan); S. McCormick (George Washington U.); M. Stults, X. Manarolla (ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability); J. Schwartz and A. Zanobetti (Harvard U); K. Ebi (ESS/LLC) • Climate change, heatwaves, and health: Local tools for sustainability, equity, and prevention • Grant from Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of Michigan, (2008-2010) http://www.provost.umich.edu/gesi/funding/esmrt_2008-1.html • Investigators: M. O’Neill, R. Rood, E. Parker, D. Brown

3. Approach of this study • A team of people with a range of skill sets and interests • Epidemiology • Environmental health • Health behavior and social science • Geographical information • Statistical analysis • Meteorology • Systems analysis

4. What do we want to tell a union of geophysicists? • What does the problem-solving space look like? • Where does physical climate sit in relation to other elements of the problem?

5. Background: Extreme heat is already a problem • Extreme heat impacts human health, and more deaths are attributed to heat than any other environmental parameter. • Relation between heat and impact on health is difficult to quantify. • Physics of heating and cooling • Attributes of local environment • Physiology of individuals / acclimation • Attributes of personal environment • In fact, extreme heat that impacts health is hard to define. • Sheridan and Kalkstein (2004) • EPA Guidebook

6. Extreme Heat and Climate Change • There is observational evidence of increasing episodes of extreme heat (for example, Gaffen and Ross, Nature, 1998) • There are predictions of increases in extreme heat events by climate change projections (for example, Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004) • See IPCC, 2007 for a more complete assessment. • Climate projections do not necessarily link to human health.

7. How do we use this information in a public health application? • Consider another form of model study (Diffenbaugh and Ashfaq, 2010) • Using a regional climate model resolving North America they focus on the next 30 years. • This period is expected to be well below the putative dangerous climate change threshold of a 2° C • What is the change in events that look like historical heat waves in the next 30 years? • Result: In 2030-2039 see 6 extreme events per decade as compared with ~ 1 per decade in 1950-1990. Heat risk, potential danger to human health increases, even if there is aggressive adoption of mitigation policies. See Philo. Trans. Roy. Soc., Jan 2011 (4 degrees warming)

8. Schematic of System SUN Ability to Cool HEAT STRESS WATER

9. Schematic of System SUN Ability to Cool STRESS HEAT Built Environment Amplification Accumulation WATER

10. Rational Paths of Using this Information Calculation of parameters that link heat to human health. Persistent Daily Highs Persistent Daily Lows Incorporation of humidity (apparent T) Incorporation of clouds, wind, etc.

11. Paths of better defining “heat extremes” Strenuous exertion Regional Acclimation Persistent Daily Highs Accumulated Heat Built Environment Persistent Daily Lows Ability to cool Sultriness Dehydration Incorporation of humidity (apparent T) Incorporation of clouds, wind, etc. Information?

12. Improved representations of heat and humans • Can we do better than just saying that it is going to get hotter? • What is value of nuanced calculations of heat extremes and stress? Is it usable information? • What is the balance between having to study each case and the ability to aggregate information and develop general strategies? • What is the minimal level of complexity that must be accommodated?

13. Rational Paths of Using this Information Consideration of people who get in trouble when it is hot. Exertion Exposure Urban Heat Compromised Health

14. Paths of considering how people get in trouble High temperature Exertion (August football) High temperature Low temperature Exposure (Crossing the border) Built environment Accumulated heat Hot buildings Built environment Accumulated heat Hot buildings Urban Heat Urban Heat High temperature Accumulated heat Inability to cool High temperature Accumulated heat Inability to cool Compromised Health Compromised Health

15. Quantitative Analysis Detroit Imperviousness  built environment  best predictor Oswald et al. (2010) J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. (submitted) Zhang et al. (2010) Environmental Research (submitted)

16. Rational Paths of Using this Information Identification of vulnerable people and reducing the risk Population Characterization Warning Education of Public/First Providers Adaptive Capacity/Design

17. Summary: Heat, Humans, Climate Change • Extreme heat is already an important public health risk. • Projections of future heat events that are similar to dangerous heat events of the past suggest increased risk. • Increase in temperature does not easily transfer over to actionable information by public health officials.

18. Summary: Heat, Humans, Climate Change • Important considerations for making climate information more relevant to human health • Persistence of hot spells • Daily lows and highs • Accumulation of heat • Overlap with cities and built environment • Thresholds related to physiology • Extension of heat threats to cities and regions where heat-related risk is unexpected. • Responses: • Education of at risk public \ What to do • Education of first responders • City planning • Materials

19. Summary: Take Away Message • Responses to address extreme heat de-correlates the details of the physical science from solution. • It is important to identify regions, hence cities, where heat is likely to become a risk. • The cogeneration of knowledge by all disciplines represented on the team contribute to successful solutions. • Learning the language • Learning the priorities • Learning the compromises • Learning the possibilities