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Applying Six Sigma to Software Development: A Practical Guide

Applying Six Sigma to Software Development: A Practical Guide. Dr. Bill Eventoff ESTM Associates, Inc. 8 Morningside Drive ♦ Toms River, NJ 08755 (732) 341-2951 ♦ bille@estm.biz. © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc. Motivation. Six Sigma Well-defined improvement approach

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Applying Six Sigma to Software Development: A Practical Guide

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  1. Applying Six Sigma to Software Development: A Practical Guide Dr. Bill Eventoff ESTM Associates, Inc. 8 Morningside Drive ♦ Toms River, NJ 08755 (732) 341-2951 ♦ bille@estm.biz www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  2. Motivation Six Sigma • Well-defined improvement approach • Impressive track record of achievements • Adaptable Software Development • Large Opportunity for Improvement • Approximately 25% of software projects are canceled • Average project exceeds • Costs by 90% • Schedule by 120% • Risk of project failure increases with size www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  3. But Software Development is Not a Typical Application • Process Oriented, but • Inputs often ill-defined • Outputs often difficult to fully evaluate • Performance highly influenced by human factors (e.g., knowledge, skills, experience, etc.) • Significant natural variation www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  4. Key Factors in Software Project Failures www.estm.biz

  5. Applying Six Sigma to Software Development www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  6. Fuzzy Front End Six Sigma DFSS www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  7. Balance the VOC and the VOB Voice of the Customer Voice of Business www.estm.biz

  8. VOC – Voice of the Customer • Understand Internal and External Customers and Target Environment www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  9. Building a Customer Matrix Types of Customers Lost Lead Lead User Had But Lost Demanding U.S. Europe Segments Asia www.estm.biz © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

  10. VOC – Voice of the Customer • Understand Internal and External Customers and Target Environment • Identify, Characterize and Verify Critical to Quality (CTQ) Requirements • Interviews, focus groups, use cases, etc. • Preference surveys and Kano analysis www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  11. Kano Analysis • Dissatisfiers (or basic requirements) • “Must be” requirements • These features must be present to meet minimal expectations of customers • Satisfiers (or variable requirements) • The better or worse you perform on these requirements, the higher or lower will be your rating from customers • Delighters (or latent requirements) • These are features, factors, or capabilities that go beyond what customers expect, or that target needs customers can’t express themselves www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  12. Satisfied, but I expect it this way Neutral I can live with it Very Dissatisfied The Kano Model Delighted Delighter Satisfier How the Customer Feels Must-Be Low to None High Level of Functionality Deliveredfor a particular requirement www.estm.biz © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

  13. VOC Output: Prioritized CTQs www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  14. VOC – Voice of the Customer • Understand Internal and External Customers and Target Environment • Identify, Characterize and Verify Critical to Quality (CTQ) Requirements • Interviews, focus groups, use cases, etc. • Preference surveys and Kano analysis • Establish measures for CTQ requirements www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  15. VOC Output: Fully Characterized CTQs www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  16. VOB - Voice of Business • Analyze Design Options • Estimate customer satisfaction • Level of effort • Capability to deliver • Balance VOC and VOB www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  17. Analyze Design Options Design Options Level of Effort www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  18. Analyze Design Options = F(Kano, Priority, Feature Level) www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  19. Analyze Design Options = ∑ Effort Estimates www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  20. Concept Selection www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  21. (SLOC) Size = PP 1 / 3 é ù Effort ( StaffYears ) 4 / 3 * Duration ( years ) B ë û Computing Productivity Historically, for each project we should know Size, Effort, and Duration www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  22. Schedule Compression Manpower Buildup Index, MBI Effort ( StaffYears ) MBI relates to Duration ( years ) 3 www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  23. Rayleigh Curve www.estm.biz © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

  24. Balancing VOC and VOB www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  25. Balancing VOC and VOB www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  26. VOB - Voice of Business • Analyze Design Options • Estimate customer satisfaction • Level of effort • Capability to deliver • Balance VOC and VOB • Select Concept and Approach • Flesh out concept • QFD • FEMA • Verify and refine approach • Defect analysis • Schedule simulation www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  27. Capability to Deliver on TimeProbabilistic Scheduling • How much confidence should we have in the schedule? • … At a 95% confidence level • latest mid March, 2003 (+ 43 days) • earliest mid January, 2003 (- 15 days) Upper Spec Limit(USL) Forecast: F52 1,000 Trials Frequency Chart 4 Outliers .028 28 .021 21 .014 14 .007 7 .000 0 250.00 262.50 275.00 287.50 300.00 Certainty is 94.90% from -Infinity to 289.17 days www.estm.biz © 2002 Six Sigma Advantage, LLC

  28. Process Improvement Standard Six Sigma DMAIC Process www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  29. Application to Software Prerequisites: Processes must be well defined X www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  30. DMAIC Example • Problem Statement • Post release maintenance has increased by 30% since the end of last fiscal year and is now limiting new product development. • Goal Statement • Reduce post release maintenance by 40% by the end of Q4’2003. www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  31. Measure – Data Collection • Total Problems Fixed Prior to Release Per Project • Pre-Release Defects: defects found and fixed during development and testing • Total Post Release Problems Per Project • Released Defects: defects reported by customers • Types of Post Release Problems • All projects • Per project www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  32. Analysis Pre-Release Defects = f(Size) www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  33. Analysis • Escaped defects proportional to pre-release defects • No significant variation in Defect Containment Effectiveness • DCE = Pre-Release Defects/(Pre-Release Defects + Escaped Defects) www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  34. Analysis • Most Escaped Defects are Code Related www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  35. Improve • Improve the Effectiveness of Code Inspections • Factors • Size of unit (LOC) • Preparation time (LOC/hour) • Inspection time (LOC/hour) • Number of reviewers • Measure • Number of identified defects www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  36. Improve • Improve the Effectiveness of Code Inspections • Conduct DOE • Determine most effective combination of factors • Verify DOE results • Pilot test using real project www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  37. Control • Establish Performance Standard for Code Inspections • Defects/KLOC • Monitor Performance • Take action when unacceptable performance observed www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

  38. Questions www.estm.biz © 2002 ESTM Associates, Inc.

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