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What is the Pileus Project?

Climate Change and the Tart Cherry Industry in the Great Lakes Region: Introducing the Pileus Project : 18 January 2005. What is the Pileus Project?. Climate. Skiing. Compre-hensive. Golf. Components of the Pileus Project. TOURISM. AGRICULTURE. Tart Cherry Industry. Corn & Wheat

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What is the Pileus Project?

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  1. Climate Change and the Tart Cherry Industry in the Great Lakes Region: Introducing the Pileus Project:18 January 2005

  2. What is the Pileus Project?

  3. Climate Skiing Compre-hensive Golf Components of the Pileus Project TOURISM AGRICULTURE Tart Cherry Industry Corn & Wheat Quality

  4. Pileus Project Players MSU Core Team Agriculture Climate Dr. Jeffrey Andresen Dr. Roy Black Tourism Dr. Julie Winkler Dr. Jeffrey Andresen Tracy Beedy Dr. Costanza Zavalloni Dr. Don Holecek Dr. Sarah Nicholls Galina Guentchev Krerk Piromsopa Lori Martin Charles Shih Jeonghee Noh Administration/Coordination/Communications Dr. Peter Sousounis Jeanne Bisanz

  5. Overall ProjectObjectives (Agriculture) • Cultivate research partnerships with tart industry stakeholders to establish research goals, identify specific needs, and provide expertise. • Create physically-based models to quantify past and projected impacts of climate and climate variability on the tart cherry industry. • Develop decision-support tools for weather and climate-related risk management for tart cherry production, grain quality & the tourism/recreation industry.

  6. Hart

  7. How might past and potential future climates impact….. Tree phenology? Tart cherry production? Economic cost of production? Net returns over time? The need for insurance?

  8. Stakeholder are KEY Cherry Marketing Institute Northwest Horticulture Research Station Cherry Bay, Inc. National Agriculture Statistics Service Tart Cherry Industry Task Force Individual cherry growers

  9. Socioeconomic Scenarios Climate Observations or Scenarios Ecological or Activity (e.g. fruit tree or tourism/ recreation) Model Economic Model(s) Risk/ Decision Making /Policy Framework Land use change scenarios

  10. Temperature Phenology Solar radiation Precipitation Vapor pressure Winter mortality LAI ET, PET Soil water Disease pressure Yield

  11. Simulated vs. Observed Reproductive Phenology Southwest Lower MI, 1976-2003 Number of observations Mean difference (days) Mean absolute difference (days) Stage 2 - Side Green 10 - 1.60 6.40 4 - Tight Cluster 8 - 1.50 3.11 6 - First White 5 - 3.20 4.40 7 - First Bloom 4 2.75 4.25 8 - Bloom 26 0.56 3.90 9 - Petal Fall 9 - 1.44 2.55 Weather data: Eau Claire, MI Location of observations: SWMREC and Berrien County

  12. Simulated historical day of the year of Stage 2 ‘Side Green’ (red line = 9 year moving average)

  13. Bud Stages and Damage Temperatures Side green Green tip Tight cluster Open cluster -12.2 C - 6.7 C - 5.6 C - 4.4 C Threshold temperatures from Dennis and Howell, 1974 Source pictures: Mark Longtroth and Dennis and Howell

  14. Projected Climate of the Great Lakes Region • Mean air temperatures are projected to increase 1-3C by the end of this century. • Projected trends in precipitation are unclear, with some climate simulations suggesting a wetter climate and others a drier climate. • Future changes in the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, a key factor for cherry production, remain unknown.

  15. Simulated fraction of viable buds in the period 1990-2050

  16. Projected Average Annual Returns per AcreSouthwest Lower MI (2020-2050) per Acre

  17. Potential benefits of the Pileus Project • Development of simple crop models that can be used to evaluate the impact of future climate trends and variability on tart cherry production • Providing a better understanding of historical climate trends, variability, and their past impacts on the tart cherry industry • Explicit incorporation of climate into a framework that may assist in economic decision-making

  18. Questions?

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