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Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA ): Model Description and Applications

Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA ): Model Description and Applications. Bruce Junkins, Suren Kulshreshtha & Marie Boehm Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Sheperdstown, WV, October 2, 2001. Objectives.

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Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA ): Model Description and Applications

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  1. Canadian Economic and Emissions Model for Agriculture (CEEMA):Model Description and Applications Bruce Junkins, Suren Kulshreshtha & Marie Boehm Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Sheperdstown, WV, October 2, 2001

  2. Objectives • Develop a model to assess impacts of mitigation strategies on • GHG emissions from the agriculture and agri-food sector • economic indicators • Estimate 1990 GHG emission levels • Forecast 2010 GHG emission levels based on business as usual scenario • Estimate impact of selected options on GHG emission levels and economic indicators for the sector

  3. Modeling Framework • Based on an existing policy analysis model (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model - CRAM) • Greenhouse Gas Emissions module links levels of agricultural activities to emission coefficients • Integrated model (Canadian Economic Emissions Model for Agriculture - CEEMA) incorporates science with policy analysis • CEEMA goes beyond primary agriculture and IPCC accounting to include forward and backward linkages (farm inputs, off-farm transportation, food processing)

  4. Schematic of the Components of CEEMA Land Base Non-land resources Uncultivated Land Cultivated Land Technology of Production Economic Optimization Model (Canadian Regional Agricultural Model) Product and Input Markets Farm Input Demand Level of Crop and Livestock Production Shipments and Trade Producer and Consumer Surplus Science of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimation of coefficients Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector

  5. Policy Model – CRAM • Static, non-linear optimization model • Maximizes producer + consumer surplus • Integrates all sectors of primary agriculture • Regional supply/demand • Inter-provincial and international trade • Government policies/subsidies • Transportation and handling • Land is the only resource constraint • Crop supply response determined by relative profitability of alternative crops

  6. CRAM • Regional Coverage • 29 crop production regions • 22 in the Prairie region • 1 each in other provinces • Provincial level for livestock, dairy and poultry • Land types • Cropland • Hayland • Improved Pasture • Unimproved Land

  7. Crop Production Regions in CRAM Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba

  8. CRAM - Field Crops Fallow/Stubble Split (West) Wheat Durum Canola Lentils Tillage Practices (West) Intensive Moderate No-till West Wheat (4 grades) Durum Wheat Feed Barley Malting barley Canola Flax Oats Lentils Field peas Potatoes Hay Pasture Other crops East Wheat Soybeans Feed barley Corn grain Corn silage Potatoes Hay Pasture Other crops

  9. Cattle basic herd Cows Heifers Calves Bulls Cattle feedlot operations Steers Heifers Hogs Sows Growers Dairy Cows Heifers Calves Fluid milk Industrial milk Poultry Chickens Layers Turkeys CRAM - Livestock

  10. CRAM - Economic Coverage Crops Area planted Production costs (variable) Yields Prices Trade Food demand Feed demand Livestock Animal numbers Production costs (variable) Yields Prices Trade: - live animals - meat Meat consumption Other Government payments Consumer and producer surplus Transportation costs Handling costs

  11. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Module • 100 year Global Warming Equivalent estimates of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions • Emission coefficients based on latest scientific information • biophysical models (CENTURY) • expert opinion (AAFC Research Branch, IPCC and Environment Canada) • Disaggregate approach - emissions of each GHG are estimated for each region, crop and livestock production activities, and source of GHG emissions • Estimated emissions = emissions coefficient * production activity level • Flexibility in method of summation (e.g. total agriculture and agri-food sector vs. IPCC/Inventory methodology)

  12. CEEMA Accounting of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Sector

  13. CEEMA Accounting of the Agricultureand Agri-Food Sector (cont’d)

  14. GHG Emissions from Agriculture (million tonnes CO2 equivalents)

  15. Agriculture and Agri-Food Table Options Report • Soil nutrient management • Better matching of N to crop requirements • Soil Management* • Increase use of no-till • Decrease use of summerfallow • Increase use of permanent cover • Grazing Management* • Decrease cattle stocking rates + complimentary grazing + rotational grazing • Change Animal Diets • Reduce protein intake, additives (hogs. poultry, dairy) • Agroforestry • Shelterbelts * Soil Sinks

  16. % change 2010 Target Nut. Mgt. Summerfallow Grazing Shelterbelts No-Till PCP Animal Diets Total Reductions Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (CENTURY)

  17. 2010 Target Nut. Mgt. Summerfallow Grazing Shelterbelts Animal Diets PCP No-Till Percent Change in CO2-Eq EmissionsRelative to 2010 Baseline (Expert Opinion) % change Total Reductions

  18. Canadian Submission to the UNFCC (proposals related to Kyoto Protocol Article 3.3) • Estimate scale of sink potential for 1st commitment period • Land based accounting • Improvements to Table analysis • Low, medium and high adoption rates of BMP related to change in soil carbon • Cropland management • frequency of no-till • frequency of summerfallow • Grazing land management • conversion of cropland to permanent cover • intensity of pasture and grazing land management • Shelterbelts

  19. Estimated Total Agricultural Emissions and Sinks in 1990 and 2010 Tg CO2 Eq.

  20. Importance of Net GHG Accounting Example: Estimated Impacts of 1 m ha Permanent Cover and Cattle Increase on GHG Emissions (2010) Tg CO2-Eq. Increased carbon sequestration on grazing land. Decreased N2O emissions from fertilizer due to less land under annual crops. Increased CH4 and N2O emissions due to expanded livestock herd. Net emission reductions of 0.6 million tonnes per year. If no livestock increase, then could be an additional 1 Mt reduction.

  21. Impacts of agriculture on GHG emissions go beyond the primary sector Importance of soil sinks GHG reduction targets may be achievable through a series of actions based on existing technology Trade-off between GHG reduction and increased agricultural production (especially livestock) Measures to promote adoption of mitigation practices Uncertainty of GHG coefficients Environmental co-benefits Key Messages

  22. Collaboration with broad research community Analyze additional mitigation scenarios as input to National Business Plan Targeted Measures and Domestic Emissions Trading Working Groups Improve economic component of CEEMA (better regional disaggregation and farm level production data) Incorporate price of carbon for analysis of emissions trading options Improve GHG coefficients based on scientific research reflective of Canadian conditions Improve links to agri-food sector and transportation of bulk commodities Analysis of non-food markets (biofuels, strawboard) Investigate the dynamics of climate change, potential impacts and possible adaptation Future Activities

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