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How Emerging Markets Emerge: An Indian Perspective

How Emerging Markets Emerge: An Indian Perspective. A Presentation to Perchstone & Graey’s 6 th Annual Law Series by Indian High Commissioner Mahesh Sachdev (Lagos, May 24, 2012). A Snapshot of India. Population : 1.21 Billion (2 nd Largest) on 1.3.2011

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How Emerging Markets Emerge: An Indian Perspective

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  1. How Emerging Markets Emerge: An Indian Perspective A Presentation to Perchstone & Graey’s 6th Annual Law Series by Indian High Commissioner Mahesh Sachdev (Lagos, May 24, 2012)

  2. A Snapshot of India • Population: 1.21 Billion (2nd Largest) on 1.3.2011 • Area: 3.2 mn sq kms (7th Largest) • Polity: Parliamentary Democracy under 1950 Constitution with electoral college of over 714 mn; 15 General Elections in 60 years. • Media: ~70,000 Publications, 1,400 TV Stations, 100 m on Internet • GDP: PPP: $4.46 Tn (World’s 3rd Largest); Nominal: $2.0 Tn (10th) • Composition: Services:58%, Ind.:28%, Agric.:14% • GDP Growth: 10.4% in 2010; 6.9% in 2011-12; 6.9% in 2012 (proj.) • Trade/GDP: 40%; Exports: $303 bn; Imports $489 bn (2011-12) • Fixed Investment/GDP: 32.2% • Market Cap/GDP: 100% Approx. Fiscal Deficit:5.9% of GDP • Cumulative Foreign Investments on 31.12.10: $198 bn (FDI); $172 Bn (FII); $ 92 bn (Investments Abroad) • Mixed Economy under Independent Regulators

  3. Nigeria-India: Current Picture • Nigeria’s 2nd Largest Trading Partner ($16.4 bn in 2011; N2I: $13.728 bn; I2N:2.648 bn) • Largest Investor in Nigeria in 2010 ($ 5 bn) • Indian Cos are Nigeria’s 2nd Largest Employer • Pole Spot in IT, Health, Steel, Power X-mission • Growing Medical Tourism, Education & Training • Incoming Projects: Power, Petro-Chem, Health • Growing P2P Contacts: 33,000 Visas in 2011 • ~35,000 Indians in Nigeria (<0.2% of Population)

  4. Nigeria-India Business Ties • Indians Began Arriving in Lagos 1890s • Initially in Trade & Textiles; Expanded to IT, Telecom, Pharma, Agric., E&P, Mfr-ing, Steel, Transport, Services, Distribution & Retailing, etc • Role of Indian Business Professionals • Growing Nigerian Business Presence in India • Indian Businesses in Nigeria Have Their Sub-Sets: • Nigerian-Indian Groups • India-Based Groups • Third Country Based Indian Groups • Indian Professionals

  5. India’s Economic Re-Emergence • India was World’s Top 2 Economy till 1815 • Decline due to Colonisation & Missed Industrial Revolution • Resuscitation since Independence in 1947 with 5-Year Plans since 1951; 12th FYP Recently Launched • Phases: 1951-1983; 1984-91, 1991-2012

  6. India’s Economic Transformation • From Typical Primary Sector Economy to Services Sector Driven • From Insular Self Sufficient to Globalised • From Public Sector Led to Private Sector Dominated • From Licence Raj to Opportunity Driven • From Govt Controlled to Self-Regulated

  7. Drivers for Indian Economic Growth • Incremental & Careful Economic Planning • Creating Macro-Economic Conditions • Cohesion & Continuity Thru Consensus • Leveraging Size, HR & Frugal Innovation • Improving Regulation and Oversight • Govt as Mediator among Stake-Holders • Globalisation & Reforms at Indian Pace • Monitoring Data and Trade Policy Aspects

  8. India & Global Context • 20 Years of Liberalisation & Globalisation • India’s Rising Share of Global Economy • Knowledge-Based Economic Interface • Rise of Indian MNCs & Professionals • Innovation & Rise of New Economy • Downside of Globalisation: Jobs, Decline of Old Economy, Inclusion, Urbanisation, Regulatory Challenge & Corruption

  9. Current Economic Agenda • Launch of 12th Five Year Plan • Global: High Commodity Prices; Falling Demand; Macro-Economic Instability; EU; Protectionism; Terror & Piracy • Domestic: Coalition Politics, Subsidies; Infrastructure; Agric • Challenges: Boost Growth & Confidence, Curb Inflation &CAD, Reforms, Impart Skill • Austerity or Stimulus?

  10. Post-Emergence India? • Long Way to Go in Creating Modern & Prosperous India • Sustaining Inclusive Growth & Equity • Infrastructure: Physical & Human • KBE, Skill-Acquisition • Mainstreaming Rural Economy • Energy Security • Manage Credibility thru Transition

  11. Thank You and Wishing You All Productive Ties with India! Comments & Questions are Welcome: hc.abuja@mea.gov.in

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