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The Florida Economic Environment: Outlook for Retail Sales

The Florida Economic Environment: Outlook for Retail Sales. Tony Villamil The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (WEG) Florida Retail Federation Annual Meeting The Shores Resort Daytona Beach, Florida November 12-14, 2007. Economic Growth Drivers of the Economy of Florida: A Framework.

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The Florida Economic Environment: Outlook for Retail Sales

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  1. The Florida Economic Environment: Outlook for Retail Sales Tony Villamil The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (WEG) Florida Retail Federation Annual Meeting The Shores Resort Daytona Beach, Florida November 12-14, 2007

  2. Economic Growth Drivers of the Economy of Florida: A Framework

  3. US Economic Driver of Florida

  4. Global Economic Driver of Florida

  5. What Do US/Global/Business Climate Drivers Imply for Florida? Sources: Enterprise Florida, Inc., Labor Market Statistics and Visit Florida 2006 - *Preliminary.

  6. From the Macro Florida Economy to Indicators of Retail Sales

  7. Florida Consumer Confidence Index: Reflects Concerns on the Economic Outlook for 2008 Source: University of Florida BEBR. Data is based on December observations of each year. *2007 is based on November data.

  8. $ Crude Oil/Barrel: Higher Gas Prices Likely to Follow Source: Energy Information Administration and 2007. Data is based on December observations of each year. *2007 is based on Future December Price as of 11/12/07 closing.

  9. Florida Single-Family Median Home Prices: The “Net Wealth” Effect Source: Florida Association of Realtors and 2007 WEG Estimates.

  10. Florida Unemployment Rate: Still Satisfactory, but Trend is Up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Florida Labor Market Statistics. Data is based on December observation of each year. *2007 is based on October data.

  11. Slowdown in Florida Taxable Sales in 2007 is from High-Activity Levels: Reflecting a More Subdued Economic Environment and “No Hurricanes”

  12. Florida Taxable Sales* Source: Florida Economic & Demographic Research Database. *August of each year.

  13. Florida Total Retail Sales Source: UCF, Sept 2007 Forecast and WEG Estimates for 2007-2008.

  14. Outlook for Corporate Activities in Florida Strong • Global Economic Driver • Trade, goods and services (global merchandising) • Financial – international private banking, Foreign Direct Investment • International visitors, conferences and conventions • Cluster Development (the New Florida) – the “poles” of growth • Life Sciences • Telecommunications • Logistics • Aviation • Fashion and Entertainment • Environmental Technologies • Commercial real estate/public construction

  15. Outlook for Corporate Activities in Florida (cont.) Soft • Consumer-related spending • Retail sales (auto dealers, furniture, appliances): “big ticket” • Population-driven retail sales • Residential-fixed investment (multifamily) • Real estate-related manufacturing and services • State and local government spending (watch clients with heavy dependence on public contracts)

  16. Concluding Observations • “The best of times (opportunities) and the worst of times (risks)” • Fluid and uncertain outlook: a no-nonsense approach to business based on: 1. Core competencies 2. “Smart” expense management 3. Credit quality 4. Emphasis on marketing mix for “thinner consumer wallet” • Property tax issues are far from resolved (business climate) • Monitor/input Taxing and budget reform commission • Income method for business property? Caps on local spending? • Property insurance • “No hurricanes” and market-based solutions • Current approach relies too heavily on State (taxpayers) and …..luck!

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