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NARCCAP Fourth Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns

NARCCAP Fourth Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research. Boulder, CO April 10 -11, 2012. NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II. A2 Emissions Scenario. GFDL. CGCM3. HADCM3. CCSM3. CAM 3 Time slice 50km. GFDL

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NARCCAP Fourth Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns

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  1. NARCCAP Fourth Users’ Meeting Overview of Climate Change Results Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO April 10 -11, 2012

  2. NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM3 CAM3 Time slice 50km GFDL Time slice 50 km Provide boundary conditions 2041-2070 future 1971-2000 current CRCM Quebec, Ouranos RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz HadRM3 Hadley Centre MM5 Iowa State ECPC RSM Scripps WRF PNNL

  3. Temperature and precipitation changes with model agreement (2080-2099 minus 1980-1999) A1B Scenario

  4. AOGCM-RCM Matrix AOGCMS RCMs

  5. Global - CCSM3 MM5 RCM Change in Winter Temperature CCSM3, 3 RCMs CRCM WRF RCM

  6. Change in Summer Temperature CCSM-driven

  7. CCSM CCSM-driven change in summer precipitation CRCM

  8. RegCM3 CGCM3 Global Model CRCM CGCM - driven Change in Winter Temperature WRFG

  9. CGCM3 – Global RegCM3 CGCM-driven % Change in Winter Precipitation WRFG CRCM

  10. WRF WRF

  11. Change in Summer Temperature WRF

  12. Bukovsky Regions

  13. Southern Rocky Mountains

  14. Southern Rocky Mountains

  15. Southern Rocky Mountains GFDL-driven Annual Temperature

  16. Southern Rocky Mountains CRCM ΔP = - 8 % MM5 ΔP = -15% WRFG ΔP = - 3%

  17. Bukovsky Regions

  18. Deep South

  19. Central Plains

  20. East Taiga

  21. Pacific NW

  22. Pacific SW

  23. Global Time Slice / RCM Comparison at same resolution (50km) A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL AOGCM NCAR CCSM3 Six RCMS 50 km GFDL AGCM Time slice 50 km CAM3 Time slice 50km compare compare

  24. Future-current Summer Temperatures GFDL CM2.1 GFDL AM2.1

  25. RegCM3 in GFDLChange in Summer Temperature

  26. RegCM3 in GFDL% Change Precip - Winter

  27. THE END

  28. Change in Precipitation (%) North Atlantic CCSM3 CGCM3 Southern Rockies

  29. Change in Temperature °C North Atlantic CCSM3 CGCM3 Southern Rockies

  30. Bukovsky Regions

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