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premier. TO OBSERVE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION FOR A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS. Presentation at the SPARC SSG meeting by Michaela I. Hegglin (University of Toronto, Canada) on behalf of: PREMIER Mission Advisory Group (MAG):

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  1. premier TO OBSERVE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION FOR A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

  2. Presentation at the SPARC SSG meeting by Michaela I. Hegglin (University of Toronto, Canada) on behalf of: PREMIER Mission Advisory Group (MAG): Michaela Hegglin University of Toronto, Canada Brian Kerridge Rutherford-Appleton Lab, UK Jack McConnell York University, Canada Donal Murtagh Chalmers University, Sweden Johannes Orphal KIT, Germany Vincent-Henri Peuch Meteo-France, France Martin Riese FZJ, Germany Michiel van Weele KNMI, Netherlands ESA Science Coordinator: Jörg Langen ESA Technical Coordinator: Bernardo Carnicero-Dominguez Science Team Candidate ESA Explorer Mission PREMIER

  3. ESA’s Living Planet Programme Earth Explorer Earth Watch Research driven Operational Service driven Opportunity Missions Core Missions Meteorology w. Eumetsat GMES Sentinel 1 GOCE Launched 17/3/09 CryoSat 2 2010 Meteosat MSG EPS (MetOp) MTG Post EPS Sentinel 2 Sentinel 3 Sentinel 4 Sentinel 5 ADM-Aeolus 2011 SMOS 2009 EarthCARE 2013 Swarm 2010 ? EE 8 2017 ? EE 7 2016 www.esa.int/livingplanet

  4. 24 Call for Ideas 6 ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection Mission Assessment Groups / Phase 0 Reports for Assessment User Consultation Meeting ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection Step 3: Mission Feasibility (Phase A) BIOMASS • 2009-2010 3 Mission Advisory Groups / Phase A CoReH2O Reports for Mission Selection PREMIER User Consultation Meeting ESAC Recommendation / PB-EO Selection Implementation 7th Earth Explorer Mission: Steps to Launch Step 1: Call and selection • March - July 2005 • May 2006 • Spring 2007 - 2008 Step 2: Mission Assessment (Phase 0) • Autumn 2008 • 20-21 January 2009 • February 2009 • 2011 • 2012-2016 Step 4: Implementation (Phases B1, B2, C/D, E1) 1

  5. Scientific justification Atmospheric composition changes are driving climate change Direct radiative forcing by trace gases & aerosol Indirect effects through chemistry and aerosol-cloud interactions Feedbacks via water vapour, cloud & trace gases

  6. UTLS transport The distribution of the radiatively active species O3 and H2O is determined by transport and dehydration processes on multiple time and length scales.

  7. Water vapour Ozone Methane 24 km Pressure (hPa) ~6 km Tropopause Surface temperature sensitivity / unit mass change [relative scale] Radiative impact of composition changes P. Forster, RAF 2008 • Changes in the UTLS have a large impact on surface temperature. • Region of particular sensitivity is between 500-50 hPa. • Depends on opacity and thermal structure.

  8. PREMIER = PRocess Exploration through Measurements of Infrared and millimetre-wave Emitted Radiation Mission objectives: • To investigate processes controlling global atmospheric composition in the mid/upper troposphere and lower stratosphere; a complex region of particular importance for climate. • by resolving 3-D structures of trace gases, thin cirrus and temperature in this region on finer scales than has previously been possible from space • To study links with surface emissions and pollution. • by exploiting synergies with nadir-sounders on EPS-MetOp • PREMIER will quantify: • Relationship between atmospheric composition and climate. • Atmospheric transport processes important to climate and air quality. • Relationship between atmospheric dynamics and climate.

  9. Observation technique Innovation: PREMIER provides horizontal sampling comparable to a nadir sounder! • Nadir-sounding • Near-surface layer seen • between clouds but • Little or no vertical resolution • Limb-emission sounding • High res. vertical profiling • Tenuous trace gases detectable • Day- and nighttime observations • Dense coverage cf solar occultation EPS MetOp PREMIER

  10. PREMIER satellite instruments • mm-Wave Limb-Sounder (MWLS / STEAMR) • Heterodyne multibeam receiver, 1.5-2 km sampling • 310-360 GHz • similar to instrument on Odin, but optimized for UT • IR Limb-Sounder (IRLS) incl. cloud-imager • Imaging Fourier spectrometer, MIPAS-like • 770 – 1650 cm-1 • spectral sampling 0.2 / 1.25 / 10 cm-1 • vertical sampling 2.0 / 0.5 / 0.5 km • Orbit: • sun-synchronous, 817 km, LTDN 9.30h • 8 min ahead of MetOp to provide link to lower troposphere • Measured species: • T, H2O, O3, CH4, PAN, CFC-11, CO, C2H6, HNO3, cirrus clouds

  11. mm-wave IR – 12mm Probability [%] of transmittance > 55% -50 0 50Latitude / oN -50 0 50Latitude / oN Synergies between IRLS and MWLS(in sounding the troposphere) • IRLS / MWLSobservations to low altitudes controlled by clouds / water vapour. • Higher probability for IRLS / MWLSto propagate down in the extra-tropics / tropics.

  12. Observational requirements • Altitude range: 5 - 55 km with global coverage. • Minimum of a 4-year mission period. • Near real-time observations of multiple trace gases (and clouds) at high 3D-resolution. Typhoon Winnie (20/08/97) Modes: Dynamics: 0.5 km x 25 km x 50 km Chemistry: 2.0 km x 80 km x 100 km Clouds : 0.5 km x 4 km x 8 km PREMIER IRLS dynamics Typhoon MIPAS

  13. Convective uplift in the Indian monsoon GEMS CH4 – Aug to Oct 2003 Height of 1.9 ppmv 18km 0 km • Biogenic emissions from Bangladesh wetlands are lofted into the region • important to climate by convection in monsoon circulation • Structure in the 3-D distribution can affect methane global radiative forcing

  14. GEMS IRLS IRLS+IASI IASI Retrieval Simulations for PREMIER IRLS and IASI • PREMIER captures the structure of the plume in the UTLS. • IASI extends coverage into the lower troposphere i.e. below the limb-range.

  15. Retrieval simulations for PREMIER HCN – Model CO – Model CH3OH – Model Plumes over Atlantic from S.American biomass-burning CO – MWLS HCN – MWLS CH3OH – IRLS Plume seen well by IRLS Plume seen well by MWLS • PREMIER will observe ozone precursors (eg CO & CH3OH) & indicators of biomass burning (e.g. HCN) in individual plumes from tropical burning, boreal forest fires and industrial emissions. • PREMIER will allow us to study long-range transport of such pollution plumes.

  16. 3-D temperature structure produced by gravity waves(Retrieval simulation for PREMIER IRLS) Altitude (km) Gravity waves initiated by flow over Mountains in South America Wave vector Latitude (deg) Locations of COSMIC Profiles for whole day Longitude (deg) Longitude (deg) • Across-track sampling by PREMIER IRLS (dynamics mode) will add the 3rd dimension • Wavelength & propagation direction will be determined unambiguously for the first time • Major advance on COSMIC & HiRDLS in quantifying gravity wave vertical momentum fluxes and their parameterisation in climate models

  17. International context No other mission with capabilities comparable to PREMIER will be launched for at least another decade. Missions under discussion are: NASA/CSA: CASS CSA: STEP ALTIUS (Belgian mission) NASA: GACM NASA: ALICE In addition to meeting its research objectives, PREMIER will complement nadir observations from operational satellites meet global height-resolved monitoring requirements (which will otherwise not be met) for GCOS, WMO/IGACO, GEOSS/CEOS ACC, GMES

  18. Summary and status • For the first time, 3D-distributions of various atmospheric variables will be observed from space in the height range most important to climate. • The high resolution observations will allow a better quantification and characterization of the complex dynamical and chemical processes in the UTLS. • PREMIER will help to establish a comprehensive data base for model validation and development. Particularly important in the light of: • The integration of tropospheric and the stratospheric models. • Increased resolution of CCMs and CTMs within the next few years. • Implementation of cloud resolving models. • Therefore useful for SPARC/IGAC (CCMVal, AC&C, Gravity-wave initiative) • PREMIER will contribute to global height-resolved monitoring and operational applications in mission time-frame (feeds into WMO/UNEP, IPCC & WCRP). • Development schedule is compatible with launch during 2016 as Earth Explorer 7 (PREMIER assessment report). • Selection of one of the candidate missions for implementation by ESA in early 2011 (after user consultation meeting in late 2010).

  19. The vertical distribution of ozone is expected to change strongly due to climate change. • The stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the NH is predicted to increase substantially • In the SH, the signal is dominated by ozone depletion and recovery O3 CMAM simulations from Hegglin & Shepherd (Nature Geosci., 2009)

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