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The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on Employment Kathryn Byun byun_k@bls

The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on Employment Kathryn Byun byun_k@bls.gov. Commonly Cited Data from Current Employment Statistics (CES). 1) Construction Industry Employment: Includes work by the construction industry to satisfy demand other than for structures

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The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on Employment Kathryn Byun byun_k@bls

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  1. The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on EmploymentKathryn Byunbyun_k@bls.gov

  2. Commonly Cited Data from Current Employment Statistics (CES) 1) Construction Industry Employment: • Includes work by the construction industry to satisfy demand other than for structures • Does not include employment necessary to satisfy intermediate demand (secondary employment)

  3. Commonly Cited Data from the Office of Occupational Statistics (OOS) 2) Employment in Construction Related Occupations: • Includes employment in the occupation that satisfies demand other than for building structures • Overlook occupations outside of construction

  4. OOSEP Methodology Industry Use Table Direct Requirements Total Requirements ä ä Y ä Market Shares ä Make Table Total Requirements ä ä X Commodity Total Requirements Table * Final Demand = Industry Output

  5. OOSEP Methodology cont. • Ind. Ouput / Ind. Empl. Empl. Multiplier • TRT * Emp. Multiplier = Employment Requirements Table • ERT * FD vector = Industry Employment • Industry Employment Vector * Staffing Pattern Matrix = Occupational Employment

  6. Final Demand

  7. Final Demand for Construction (chained 2000 dollars, millions)

  8. Annual Growth Rate

  9. Divergence from 1950-95 Trend(chained 2000 dollars, millions)

  10. Residential Detail

  11. Nonresidential Detail

  12. Nonresidential Breakout of Commercial and Health Care

  13. Forecasted data for 2016

  14. Average Annual Growth Rates (Final Demand)

  15. Employment

  16. OOSEP Methodology • Final Demand + Intermediates = Industry Output • Ind. Ouput & Ind. Empl. Employment Requirements Table • ERT * FD vector = Industry Employment

  17. Disclaimer The estimates presented from this point on reflect my research alone and are not the official view of OOSEP or the BLS

  18. Employment due to Construction Spending

  19. Employment in the Residential Construction Industry (CES data) vs. Employment due to Demand for Residential Construction (My data)(Wage and Salary Employment, Thousands)

  20. Annual Growth Rates

  21. Employment during the Housing Bubble versus Trend

  22. Could res. trend be shifting up? • More people owning multiple homes • More home owners / Less renters • Replacing a higher percentage of existing structures • Faster population growth (illegal immigration) • More single persons buying homes (higher divorce rate)

  23. Nonresidential Construction Related Employment versus Trend

  24. Could Nonres. trend be shifting down? • Less need for structures with e-business • Telecommuting • Move from manufacturing to services? • Other reasons?

  25. 2007 Employment(Assuming 2006 ERT holds)

  26. Industry Employment

  27. Industries with Construction Related Employment in 2006 (by major sector)

  28. Residential: industries with biggest gains in employment

  29. Residential: industries with biggest gains in employment cont.

  30. Residential: industries with biggest losses in employment

  31. Residential: industries with biggest losses in employment cont.

  32. Nonresidential: industries with biggest gains in employment

  33. Nonresidential: industries with biggest losses in employment

  34. Nonresidential: industries with biggest losses in employment cont.

  35. Occupational Employment (Indsutry Employment Vector * Staffing Pattern Matrix)

  36. Occupational Breakout in 2006(by major sector)

  37. Top 5 occupations

  38. Occupations 6-10

  39. Occupations 11-15

  40. Occupations 16-20

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