Jakob Granit, PhD Centre Director & Deputy Director SEI GEF STAP IW Panel Member

1. Dimensions of the Water-Energy-Food-Security Nexus at the Regional ScaleHydrologidagarna 2014Stockholm University Jakob Granit, PhD Centre Director & Deputy Director SEI GEF STAP IW Panel Member

2. Structure of presentation • Context – WEF Nexus • Cases • Conclusions • Further work

3. Failure of meeting citizen and customer demands – the “bottom billion”

4. Water

5. Water scarcity: Aggregated global water supply gap estimated to be 40% by 2030 assuming no efficiency gains WRG 2030 Climate variability increases water resources challenges More than 75% of river flows are allocated to agriculture, industries or domestic purposes Water resources can be abundant but lack of investment makes them unavailable for exploitation

6. Indicators of water quality degradation Vörösmarty et.al., 2010) (Robert J. Diaz & RutgerRosenberg, 2008) • 80% of the world’s population is exposed to high levels of threat to human water security (HWS) • large scale transformation of water systems through land cover change, urbanization, industrialization and hydrologic infrastructure • Dead zones in coastal oceans have spread exponentially since the 1960s • Coastal eutrophication fueled by riverine runoff of fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels

7. Transboundary freshwater resources – the collective action dilemma G • Water (surface & ground) crosses boundaries • About 279 TB river basins in the world, 45% earth surface(Backer 2011) • Political & physical boundaries at local, national & international levels Recognizing: • The political economy in sovereign states differ • Underlying power asymmetries to consider, (Zeitounand Warner 2006) • Only 20% of all multipartite basinsfeature multilateral organisations,(Dombrowsky,2007) • 7 arebasinwide, • Cooperationcomparedto conflict appears to be the norm in TB systems(Giordano and Wolf 2003) Granit 2012

8. Energy

9. Unequal consumption of energy Nilsson et.al. SEI 2012

10. Growing energy consumption trends & links to climate change Quadrillion Btu Source: International Energy Outlook IEO 2010,Reference case • World energy consumption forecast to grow by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 • Fossil fuels expected to continue supply much of the energy used worldwide • 85% of global energy supply in 2008 • Availability of shale gas and oil is increasing • Renewable energy is relatively the fastest-growing source of electricity generation • Globally 13 % of primary energy demand is met by renewable energy • Almost 80 percent of the increase is in hydroelectric power & wind power • Present emission trends put the world plausibly on a path toward 4°C warming within this century. (WB 2012)

11. Food

12. Crop area available is being reduced FAO, 2011

13. Fertilizer use in agriculture is increasing significantly FAO

14. Nexus

15. Development opportunities/benefits in the nexus – conceptual model 3. Industry & urbanization • Domestic use • Industrial use • Waste water treatment • Tourism 4. Ecosystem services • Water quality management • Biodiversity & conservation • Flood & drought protection • Navigation Tradeoffs Granit 2012, based on Phillips, D., Allan, A., Claassen, M., Granit, J., Jägerskog, A., Kistin, E., Patrick, M. & Turton, A. (2008). 1. Energy production Water use in all steps of the thermal energy value chain Water storage for hydropower Water for bio fuels 2. Primary production Agriculture (irrigation & rainfed) Forestry Fisheries

16. Energy links to water withdrawal & water consumption • Global water withdrawalpatterns – lowefficency • 70% Agriculture; 20% industry; 10% households (IWMI 2007) • Regional differences & trends in waterwithdrawal • EU: 44% for energy production, 24% for agriculture, 17% for public water supply, 15% industry (EC 2007) • USA: 40% Irrigation, 39% Thermoelectric generation, 14% Public & domestic supply, 7% Industry (US Department of Energy 2006) • Global consumptive use part of total water withdrawal for electricity generation is about 3-5% (15% of the world’s total water withdrawal, IEO 2012) • Security of supply is important to guarantee power generation • Return flows to be managed; temperature & quality

17. Case South Eastern Baltic Sea Region

18. South Eastern-Baltic Sea RegionA micro-region defined by its transboundary waters lacking cooperative frameworks

19. Key water challenges in the micro-region – affects the economy as a whole Granit, J. J., Lindström, A., Dimitrevsky, V., Guterstam, B., Hellström, M., Kindler, J., Kramen, L., Okruszko, T., Paukstys, B., Smorodinskaya, N. & Sorby, L. (2011).

21. The Water-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus and entry point for Neman cooperation? Water for energyproduction • In the thermal power production process: pump, cool, treat (nuclear, coal, oil, biomass) • In hydropower generation Energy (electricity) for water management and supply to users • Pump, Treat, Store Ecosystem services • Degradation of watersheds Energy Markets • Price, imports • Baltic Energy Market Integration Plan (BEMIP), BaltLink,

22. Case Euphrates and Tigris Region

23. Options for Cooperative Action in the Euphrates & Tigris Region - A hydro-economic model to support basin-wide dialogue Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012). • Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey • Lack of cooperative arrangements • Major regional issues: salinity, dust and haze, loss of ecosystem values, health and loss of economic opportunities • 2 yrs projectwithgovernmentstakeholders & regional organisations • Remote sensing, GIS & publicly available data • Baseline hydropower value: USD 3.5 billion/y • Irrigated agriculture USD 4.8 billion/y • Shadow values for environmental flows • Range between 286 to 515 million USD • Modelling & results can improve dialogue between riparian countries on regional integration benefits • Measures to improve water use efficeny, Iraq • Nucleus for institutional framework: Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012).

24. Characterization- Hydropower

25. Historicalflows at Hit, Iraq 1937-73 vs 1974-98

26. Characterisation- IrrigatedAgriculture

27. Satellite wetland classification – 2000

28. Case Southern Africa Development Community

29. Southern African Development Community (SADC)

30. Hydropower capacity developed and potential of regional significance 5,500 MW Developed 39,000 MW potential 4,885 MW Developed 13,500 MW potential Africa 63 Transboundary basins 782 MW Developed 1000 MW Pump Storagepotential Sources: WB 2009 TransboundaryFreshwater DisputeDatabase 2000 SIWI 2010, Paper 16 ORASECOM (verbal)

31. Oil, gas & Coal deposits

32. Windenergy potential

33. Solar energy potential

34. Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) - Mechanism to drivefurther power system & market integration

35. Conclusions

36. 1. Policy cohesion in energy and water called for • Water is a central component in today’s and tomorrow’s energy mix • Water is critical for fuel production and power generation • Power is needed to manage water and supply it to consumers • World energy consumption forecast to grow by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035 • Water scarcity and quality degradation due to multiple demands • Real issue in many part of the world • Water and energy policies are and have been developed in isolation • Urgent need to break this trend (Europe´s World #21, Special Section on water) Granit, J. (2012) Europe’s World Summer 2012

37. 2. Power planning tools need to assess all available energy and water resources at the appropriate scale • Energy assets such as HEP, oil, coal, wind, solar, and bioenergy are spatially distributed in all regions globally • Water (surface & ground) crosses boundaries • Political & physical boundaries at local, national, & international levels • Upstream & downstream issues • The generation of RE electricity through e.g. hydropower and bioenergy provides a direct feedback loop to water management • HEP and other indigenous power sources provide future price security and reduces foreign exchange requirements for fuel purchases • Using tools such as SEA allows for a systematic, and comprehensive process of evaluating power program development • The environmental effects and its alternatives • Using the findings in publicly accountable decision-making • Climate change mitigation & adaptation Granit, J., King, R. M. & Noël, R. (2011)

38. 3. Regional power market development improves efficiency and reliability • States cooperate when the net benefits of cooperation are perceived to be greater than the net benefits of non-cooperation Grey et. al. 2009 • Electric power trade can transfer the benefits from transboundary water management to load centers supporting integration in a region • Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) • Co-management of electricity networks in a market will get each country access to a larger set of cost-effective energy sources • Many countries already share electricity grids • Eg. Nordic Power Market (NORDPOL); Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the emerging East African Power Pool (EAPP); Mediterranean power pool • Power and transbounday water cooperation offers a rationale for wider expansion supporting broader economic integration Granit, J. & Claassen, M. (2013)

39. 4. Large scale water storage has a key role to play in the nexus from a regional perspective • Large-scale water storage supports economic development, builds water security and buffers against increasing rainfall variability • Large potential still exists • Well-designed water storage and hydropower systems can enhance both climate change adaptation and mitigation • HEP is a renewable source of fuel for electric power generation that efficiently can enable other RE sources in a power system • Hydropower & pumped storage can support the deployment of other sources of Renewable Enegy (RE), peaking capacity • Environmental and social consequences at the local and regional levels need to be addressed up-front when developing water storage • See eg: World Bank Safeguard policies; WCD; Equator principles; UNEP Dams and Development; IHA Hydropower sustainability Assessment Protocol Lindström, A., Granit, J. & Weinberg, J. (2012)

40. Further work

41. Methodology approaches- assessing the nexus in a continuum • Qualitative approach (light approach) • Stakeholder driven dialogues threats and opportunties • E.g. Transboundary Waters Opportunity (TWO) analysis (SIWI 2008) • Scenario based approaches (Shell, 1972 -; SEI 2013, Sweden Green Growth) • Specialist reviews • Quantitative indicator based approach • Publicly available data supported by country data • Country surveys based on well-defined questionnaires • Describing the basin • Identify key insecurities in the WEF nexus • Food & nutrition • Water supply, flood and drought etc. • Energy availability and access • Ecosystem services • Stakeholder dialogues to identify opportunities and barriers • Cooperative analysis and next steps • Quantitative modelling approaches (comprehensive) e.g: • SEI integrated Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Long Range Energy Alternatives System Planning (LEAP) Model (SEI 2012) • Hydro-economic modelling (SIWI 2012) • Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water Model (CLEW) (KTH 2011) • Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approaches: EU/Espoo Convention, World Bank (2007) Granit, J., Fogde, M., Hoff, H., Joyce, J., Karlberg, L., Kuylenstierna, J. and Rosemarin, A. (2013)

42. Thanks to Andreas Lindström, Marius Claassen, Kevin Rosner, • Charles Heap, David Purkey and many more