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Facts and Myths: Montana’s Aging Population & Its Impacts on The Economy

Facts and Myths: Montana’s Aging Population & Its Impacts on The Economy. Mary Craigle Bureau Chief Census and Economic Information Center (CEIC) MT Dept. of Commerce. Barbara Wagner Chief Economist MT Dept. of Labor and Industry. Fact or Myth?. Montana is the Least Populous State.

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Facts and Myths: Montana’s Aging Population & Its Impacts on The Economy

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  1. Facts and Myths: Montana’s Aging Population & Its Impacts on The Economy Mary Craigle Bureau Chief Census and Economic Information Center (CEIC) MT Dept. of Commerce Barbara Wagner Chief Economist MT Dept. of Labor and Industry

  2. Fact or Myth? Montana is the Least Populous State.

  3. Montana Population: 1,005,141(RANK 44th) Montana’s Population: 2010: 989,415 2012: 1,005,141 Largest Cities: Billings - 104,170 Missoula – 66,788 Great Falls – 58,505 Bozeman – 37,280 Butte – 33,525 Smallest “Cities”: Neihart– 51 Outlook – 47 Ismay – 19 (excludes CDPs) Source: 2010 Census, Census and Economic Information Center

  4. Population Density:6.86 People per Square Mile (Rank 48th) • Slow technology diffusion. • Limited networking between businesses. • Difficult to develop relationships with universities for worker training and research. Source: 2010 Census, Census and Economic Information Center

  5. Why Population Density Matters?Larger Share of Government Services than U.S. Average Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product 2011.

  6. Montana Population Projection Projected Historic 1,267,936 Residents by 2060 903,773 Residents in 2000 Why this matters? Consumers comprise 80% of GDP. Faster Population Growth = Faster Economic Growth

  7. Fact or Myth? Montana is the Oldest State.

  8. Maine is the Oldest State in the Nation:Montana Ranks 7th • 14.9% of Montanans were age 65 or older in 2010. • By 2025, this percentage will rise to 21.8%, placing MT as 4th Oldest State.

  9. Population Projections by Age 2060 Working Age 57.8% 2013 Working Age 65.5%

  10. Dependency Ratio:“Workers” Compared to Old & Young Why this Matters: Montana workers and business owners will face increased pressures to care for the old and young in the future. -Higher Taxes? -Require Higher Wages? -More Caretaking? 2013

  11. Components of Federal Spending Percentage of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office, 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook

  12. Fact or Myth? Montana has the Oldest Workers.

  13. Montana Has Highest Percent of Labor Force Over 65 Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

  14. Montana Labor Force Participation:Aging Population is Reducing Participation Rates Why this matters? Declines in Labor Force Size Will Likely Lead to Worker Shortages Source: Economy at a Glance, Nov. 2013, Research and Analysis Bureau, MT DLI

  15. Labor Force Participation Rate Percent of Population in the Labor Force Source: 2009-2011, American Community Survey

  16. Fact or Myth? Don’t Worry. Younger workers will fill in the gap.

  17. Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Currently, Young Workers have Lower Participation Participation Rates for All Ages have Declined Source: Economy at a Glance, Nov. 2013, Research and Analysis Bureau, MT DLI

  18. Employment Status of the Montana Population

  19. Montana’s Aging Population Under 20 20 to 64 Over 65 Working-age population levels out after 2015. Workers must become more productive to maintain economic growth. Source: Census and Economic Information Center, MT Dept. of Commerce, April 2013

  20. Montana Workers Will Need to Be More Productive • Education • Experience in job • Job Matching • Industry Mix • Urban concentration • Use of technology • Spread of best practices and innovative methods • Business Size

  21. Fact or Myth? Aging Population Also Has Economic Benefits

  22. Montana Personal Income by Industry Since 1930 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income from 1930, SICs to NAICS conversion compiled by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry Research and Analysis Bureau.

  23. Why this matters? Health Care and Trade Providing Growth in Real Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income from 1930, SICs to NAICS conversion compiled by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry Research and Analysis Bureau.

  24. Comparative Industry Employment Federal – 3% State – 5% Local – 11% Private – 81% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2012.

  25. Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers OJT: On-the-Job Training

  26. Fact or Myth? Retirees Contribute Retirement Income to Montana’s Economy.

  27. Components of Personal Income

  28. Growth Comes from All Areas of Income:Highest Growth in Transfers

  29. Percent Wage Growth By Sector Second Fastest Growth in Nation Montana private workers are doing pretty well for wage and income growth right now. Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2012.

  30. Montana Ranks 35th in Per Capita Income (Improved from 47th in 2002) Why this matters? Measure of Standard of Living

  31. Real Per Capita Income Over Time2005 Dollars Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2012.

  32. Age Impacts our Economy • Population growth slowing • Worker shortages with more retirees • Pressure on workers to care for young/old • Changes in components of personal income • Industry demand shifts towards services • Need healthcare worker training

  33. Questions??? Contact Information Montana Department of Labor www.lmi.mt.gov Montana Department of Commerce Census & Economic Information Center www.CEIC.mt.gov Everything You’ve Seen Here Today and More is Available At: http://businessresources.mt.gov/EDAC/meetinginformation.mcpx

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