1 / 39

13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale)

chars
Download Presentation

13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology10 January 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model and Production Advancements for 2013 with Targeted Improvements for Reliable Convective Weather Guidance in the National Airspace System NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMBCurtis Alexander, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Tanya Smirnova, Eric James, Patrick Hofmann, Ming Hu, John Brown, and Georg Grell

  2. Hourly Updated NWP Models 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale) Replaced RUC at NCEP 05/01/12 WRF, GSI, RUC features 13km RUC (mesoscale) 3km HRRR (storm-scale) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RAP, hourly 15-h fcst 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  3. RAP and HRRR Resources 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  4. Key Advantage of 3-km HRRR HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones 13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast 13-km Resolution Parameterized Convection 3-km Resolution Explicit Convection 07 June 2012 ACCURATE STORM STRUCTURE ACCURATE ESTIMATEOF PERMABILITY NO STORM STRUCTURE NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY 5 PM EDT observed 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  5. Verification of RAP-ESRL vs HRRR 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  6. HourlyHRRRInitialization from RAP 13z 14z 15z 13 km RAP Obs Obs Obs GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR HM Obs HM Obs HM Obs Cloud Anx Cloud Anx Cloud Anx 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs Refl Obs Digital Filter Digital Filter Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 3-km Interp 3-km Interp 3-km Interp 3 km HRRR 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst

  7. RAP HRRR RADAR Reflectivity 00z init 00z 12 Aug 2011 RAP HRRR no radar Convergence Cross-Section

  8. RAP HRRR RADAR Reflectivity +1h fcst 01z 12 Aug 2011 RAP HRRR no radar Convergence Cross-Section

  9. Radar Reflectivity Verification Eastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dBZ 11-21 August 2011 CSI 13 km CSI 40 km HRRR radar RAP radar HRRR radar RAP radar HRRR no radar RAP no radar HRRR no radar RAP no radar • 3km HRRR forecasts improve upon RAP 13km forecasts, especially at coarser scales much better upscaled skill • Radar DDFI adds skill at both 13km and 3km 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  10. RAP andHRRRConfig 2012 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  11. RAP andHRRRConfig 2013 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  12. HRRR Forecast Behavior 2012 (1) Coarse 00-hr analysis (2) Convective “spin-up” during forecast period (3) Low echo top bias (4) Latency of 2-3 hrs (5) Single HPCS reliability 2013 Targets (1) 3-km scale at 00-hr (2) Reduced “spin-up” during forecast period (3) Optimal echo top bias (4) Reduced latency of 1-2 hrs (5) Dual HPCS reliability RAP/HRRR Model Development and Evaluation 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  13. RAP and HRRR Changes 2013

  14. 2013: Cycled Reflectivity at 3 km 13 km RAP 13z 14z 15z Obs Obs Obs GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR HM Obs HM Obs HM Obs Cloud Anx Cloud Anx Cloud Anx 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs Refl Obs Digital Filter Digital Filter Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 3-km Interp 3 km HRRR 15 hr fcst 1 hr pre-fcst 1-hr Reduction In Latency for 14z HRRR 3-km Interp Refl Obs

  15. Latent Heating (LH) Specification Temperature Tendency (i.e. LH) = f(Observed Reflectivity) LH specified from reflectivity obs applied in four 15-min periods The observations are valid at the end of each 15-min pre-fcst period NO digital filtering at 3-km Hour old mesoscale obs Latency reduced by 1 hr -60 -45 -30 -15 0 LH = Latent Heating Rate (K/s) p = Pressure Lv= Latent heat of vaporization Lf = Latent heat of fusion Rd = Dry gas constant cp = Specific heat of dry air at constant p f[Ze] = Reflectivity factor converted to rain/snow condensate t = Time period of condensate formation (600s i.e. 10 min) Observed 3-D Radar Reflectivity Time (min) -60 -45 -30 -15 0 Model Pre-Forecast Time (min) 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  16. Latent Heating (LH) Specification Many options for weighting LH specification vs model LH Two approaches including: 100% specification for the entire pre-forecast hour (b) Time-varying with linear ramp down to 0% specification at 1 hr Option (b) permits more “free model” behavior before additional DA Experiment 1b “Ramp” Experiment 1a “Fixed” 0 1 1 Observed Radar Reflectivity (3-D) Based Latent Heating Weight Weight Model Microphysics Latent Heating 0 0 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 Model Pre-Forecast Time (min) Model Pre-Forecast Time (min) 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  17. Obs 0000 UTC11 June 2011 0-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA 0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (fixed) 0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration

  18. Obs 0100 UTC11 June 2011 1-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA 1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (fixed) 1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Convective systems more mature even by 1-hr

  19. HRRR Reflectivity Verification 3-day retrospective period 09-12 June 2011 (36 runs) Forecasts every 2 hours > 25 dBZ Composite Reflectivity Eastern half of US With 3-km fixed radar DA With 3-km ramp radar DA Without 3-km radar DA Bias = 1.0 Upscaled to 40-km grid Native 3-km grid Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr Benefit persists until 4 hrs Very similar skill at longer lead times

  20. HRRR Reflectivity Verification 14-day retrospective period June 2011 (160 runs) Forecasts every 2 hours > 25 dBZ Composite Reflectivity Eastern half of US With 3-km ramp radar DA Without 3-km radar DA Bias = 1.0 Upscaled to 40-km grid Native 3-km grid Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr Benefit persists until 4 hrs Very similar skill at longer lead times

  21. 0-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA Obs 1800 UTC29 May 2011 0-h fcstwith fully cycled 3-kmDA 0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration

  22. 6-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA Obs 0000 UTC30 May 2011 6-h fcstwith fully cycled 3-kmDA 6-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Fully Cycled 3-km DA shows improved structures

  23. HRRR Forecasts for Aviation HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones CoSPA: Collaborative effort: ESRL/GSD, NCAR/RAL, MIT/LL Provide 0-8 hr thunderstorm intensity and echo top guidance to aviation community HRRR 15 UTC 08 July 2011 6 hr forecast valid 21 UTC CoSPA 17 UTC 08 July 2011 4 hr forecast valid 21 UTC Observation Valid 21 UTC 08 July 2011 VIL Blend with CIWS Echo Top 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  24. New HRRR ET Diagnostic Current 2012 HRRR ET Diagnostic In each column starting from the top model level, locate the height of the first model level (if any) where HRRR reflectivity ≥ 18 dBZ Proposed new HRRR ET Diagnostic In each column starting from the top model level, locate the height of the first model level (if any) where HRRR reflectivity ≥ 18 dBZ (2) If and only if (1) is satisfied, repeat search through model column and locate the height of the first model level where HRRR reflectivity ≥ 11 dBZ (3) Interpolate between model level height identified in (2) and height of next level above to estimate exact 11 dBZ height Calibration of echo tops to produce improved bias 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  25. New HRRR ET Diagnostic HRRR 4 hr forecast Observation 01z 21 June 2012 Old 2012 Echo Tops (kft) Current 2012 low bias in echo tops 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  26. New HRRR ET Diagnostic HRRR 4 hr forecast Observation 01z 21 June 2012 NEW 2012 Echo Tops (kft) Calibration of echo tops to produce improved bias 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  27. HRRR ET Diagnostic Verification New ET Old ET Eastern US 03-km BIAS 344 runs 08-25 July 2012 25 kft 30 kft Optimal Optimal Optimal 40 kft Optimal 35 kft 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  28. HRRR ET Diagnostic Verification New ET Old ET Eastern US 40-km CSI 344 runs 08-25 July 2012 30 kft 25 kft 40 kft 35 kft 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  29. Current “Single” HPCS Dataflow HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones Public Users ESRL Jet Zeus Obs RAP Primary HRRR Primary RAP Backup HRRR Backup HRRR grids HRRR grids Obs NCEP/NCO Everything Depends on Jet and ESRL Availability Obs Data (Radar, Satellite, Lightning, Conventional) 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  30. Planned 2013 Dual HPCS Dataflow HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones Public Users ESRL Jet Zeus Obs RAP Primary HRRR Primary RAP Backup HRRR Backup HRRR grids HRRR grids HRRR grids Obs Obs NCEP/NCO Obs Data (Radar, Satellite, Lightning, Conventional) 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  31. HRRR Reliability HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  32. HRRR Reliability HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  33. HRRR Reliability HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones HRRR 12 hr fcstavailability Includes all missed/incomplete runs CoSPA Evaluation Periods Development and Upgrade Periods 3 month running average 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  34. HRRR Reliability HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones HRRR 12 hr fcstavailability Excludes three (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs CoSPAEvaluation Periods Development and Upgrade Periods 3 month running average 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  35. HRRR Reliability HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones HRRR 12 hr fcstavailability Includes all missed/incomplete runs Jet Maintenance Jet (HRRR primary) Zeus (HRRR backup) 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  36. HRRR Reliability HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones HRRR 12 hr fcstavailability Includes all missed/incomplete runs Jet or Zeus (union) 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  37. HRRR Reliability HRRR (and RAP) Future Milestones HRRR Milestones HRRR 12 hr fcstavailability Excludes three (or fewer) consecutive missed/incomplete runs Jet or Zeus (union) 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  38. HRRR Transition to NCEP • Current – 1 computer running HRRR • NOAA/ESRL – Boulder • Current reliability: 97% for last 12h months (allowing up to 3h gaps) • 2013-14 – 2 computers running HRRR – interim solution • Boulder – computer 1 • Fairmont, WV – computer 2 • Expected reliability to increase further to 98.5-99% via coordination of downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers • Est. 2015 – NCEP running HRRR • NOAA/NCEP computing budget – will allow no increase before 2015 • Conclusion: Interim HRRR computing for 2012-14 on 2 sites to provide “real-time experimental” HRRR from NOAA for NWS, FAA, DOE/energy users 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

  39. Summary and Plans • Moist bias reduced in 2012 RAP and HRRR • Reduced false alarms, lower precipitation bias • GSI enhancements and WRF upgrade to v3.3.1 • Reflectivity diagnostic consistent with microphysics • Science: Focus on 3-km assimilation for 2013 • 3-km variational analysis • 3-km non-variational cloud analysis • 3-km radar reflectivity data assimilation • Technical: Reduced latency for 2013 (2-3 hrs now) • Approximate 1-hr reduction in execution time (1-2 hrs) • Faster post-processing with parallelization • Direct GRIB2 generation 16th ARAM Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 10 Jan 2013

More Related