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August 15, 2008 Messages That Matter CSTA Annual Conference Harbinger Capital Research. David Prince 416 932 2819 telephone 416 932 0612 facsimile www.harbcap.com web. WHAT PERCENTAGE ARE TECHNICIAL TOOLS USED IN YOUR DAILY TRADING DECISIONS. 1 0% – 25% 2 25% – 50%
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August 15, 2008 Messages That Matter CSTA Annual Conference Harbinger Capital Research David Prince 416 932 2819 telephone 416 932 0612 facsimile www.harbcap.com web
WHAT PERCENTAGE ARE TECHNICIAL TOOLS USED IN YOUR DAILY TRADING DECISIONS • 1 0% – 25% • 2 25% – 50% • 3 50% - 75% • 4 75% - 100 %
DO YOU USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AS A PRICING MECHANISM OR AS A SCREEN TO FIND MORE MEANINGFUL ANALYSIS • 1 PRICING ONLY • 2 75% PRICING, 25% DISCOVERY TOOL • 3 25% PRICING, 75% DISCOVERY TOOL • 4 DISCOVERY ONLY
Bloomberg Las Vegas IndexDaily – June 30, 2003 – August 12, 2008 SOME CYCLE – EVEN GAMBLING SHARES ARE LOSERS! 2003 NOW Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
WCI Communities 9 1/8% Coupon Yield 05/01/12Yield Chart - Daily – April 30, 2007 – August 13, 2008 YIELD !! YIELD MADE NEW HIGH JULY 14, 2007 Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
US Dollar Index SpotMonthly - June, 1989 – August, 2008 DXY INDEX: EURO - 57.6% SWED KRONA 4.2% SWISS FRANC 3.6% BRIT POUND 11.9% EUROPE IS 77.3% ! HUGE DECLINE SHOWS MONEY FLOW OF PETRO-DOLLARS TO PETRO-EUROS FORMIDABLE RESISTENCE AT 80 Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Euro and GB Pound vs. US Dollar Weekly - June 29, 2001 – August 13, 2008 EURO HIGH FOR POUND IN NOV. 2007 BRITISH POUND Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Brazilian Real and Chinese Yuan Weekly - June 30, 2001 – August 13, 2008 MAJOR REVALUATION OF CHINESE YUAN SHOWS SOLID ADVANCE OF BRAZILIAN REAL OVER THIS COMMODITY CYCLE Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Cdn Dollar, Aust Dollar in US DollarsDaily - June 30, 2004 – August 13, 2008 C$ AUS $ Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
ISM Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing Indices Monthly - December 31, 1990 – July 31, 2008 NON-MANUFACTURING – DOTTED LINE ISM MANUFACTURING – SOLID LINE Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Uranium Spot and Crude Oil FuturesWeekly – December 31, 2001 – August 13, 2008 WTI CRUDE FUTURES PRICE PER BARREL SPOT URANIUM PRICE PER POUND EXPECT A REPEAT FOR OIL PRICING Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Gold Futures & Platinum FuturesWeekly - March 19, 2004 – August 13, 2008 DOUBLE TOP PLATINUM HISTORICALLY PLATINUM LEADS GOLD GOLD PLATINUM ALREADY 30% DOWN Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
PCE Deflator – Year over YearMonthly – December 31, 1990 – June 30, 2008 BREAK OUT FOR PRICING Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
US Industrial Bonds – A+ and B+ Rated 10 Year- YieldsDaily – March 27, 2003 – August 12, 2008 CORP B+ RATED CORP A+ RATED HIGHER RISK PREMIUM Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
10 Year Yields – Euro and UKWeekly – April 9, 2003 – August 13, 2008 UK 10 YR GILTS GENERIC RECENT DECLINE ON ECONOMIC WEAKNESS EURO 10 YR GENERIC Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
US Import Prices Ex: Petroleum Yr/Yr RateMonthly – September 30, 1989 – July 31, 2008 THIS IS WHAT MOST ECONOMISTS ARE MISSING: THE US IMPORTS WAGES! THIS MEANS FINISHED GOODS PRICES ARE GOING HIGHER US 10 YEAR YIELD S AT 3.89% ARE LOW DUE TO ECONOMIC CONCERNS BUT GIVE NEGATIVE REAL RETURN JUNE 30/08 LEVEL OF 7.3% TODAY’S RELEASE IS 8% FOR JULY YR/YR Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
US 10 Year Treasury – YieldMonthly – December 14, 1988 – August 14, 2008 INTEREST RATE LEVEL WHEN LAST HOUSING CRISIS OCCURRED AND DEFLATOR LEVEL BELOW CURRENT READING Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
US 2 Year Swap Rates Daily – June 30, 2003 – August 13, 2008 CREDIT MARKET RISK ALERT GIVEN STRONLY ON JULY 11, 2007 Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Bloomberg World Home Builders IndexWeekly – August 13, 2003 – August 13, 2008 TWO TOP WEIGHTS NOW JAPANESE COMPANIES TOTAL MARKET CAP OF THESE 26 GLOBAL PUBLIC COMPANIES IS NOW $63.2 BILLION Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Bloomberg World Financial IndexDaily – August 13, 2003 – August 13, 2008 MARKET CAP REPRESENTED IS $8.8 TRILLION USD 1052 MEMBERS Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Bloomberg World Retail IndexDaily - August 13, 2003 – August 13, 2008 BIG WEIGHTS: WMT 17.4% MCD 5.5 CVS 4.1 HD 3.5 TGT 2.9 209 MEMBERS Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
Bloomberg World Energy IndexDaily – August 13, 2003 – August 13, 2008 371 MEMBERS TOP WEIGHTS: XOM 8.8% GAZP 5.6 BP 3.9 CVX 3.7 FP 3.7 Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
TSX Cumulative Advance/Decline LineDaily – August 15, 2005 – August 12, 2008 SHOWS SAME READING AS NYSE GAVE IN 1999 Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
S&P/TSX IndexDaily – August 15, 2006 – August 13, 2008 NEW ALL TIME HIGH PULL BACK LOW FOLLOWED BY Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008
WHAT IS THE BETTER PROBABILITY? • 1 GAMBLING IN VEGAS • 2 INVESTING IN VEGAS
Bloomberg Las Vegas IndexDaily – June 30, 2003 – August 12, 2008 SOME CYCLE – EVEN GAMBLING SHARES ARE LOSERS! 2003 NOW Source: Bloomberg Harbinger Capital Research for CSTA Annual Conference 2008 26
DO YOU ANTICIPATE GREATER USE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OVER THE NEXT YEAR • 1 YES • 2 NO
August 15, 2008 Messages That Matter CSTA Annual Conference Harbinger Capital Research David Prince 416 932 2819 telephone 416 932 0612 facsimile www.harbcap.com web