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Climate Change: the challenges for Farming and Forestry

Climate Change: the challenges for Farming and Forestry. Robin Mortimer Director of Climate Change, Air Quality, Landscape and Rural Affairs. Contents. Background Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation Defra’s Plan Partnership with AONBs. Climate science: Global Surface Temperature.

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Climate Change: the challenges for Farming and Forestry

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  1. Climate Change: the challenges for Farming and Forestry Robin Mortimer Director of Climate Change, Air Quality, Landscape and Rural Affairs.

  2. Contents • Background • Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation • Defra’s Plan • Partnership with AONBs

  3. Climate science: Global Surface Temperature

  4. Climate science: What’s causing the rise?

  5. Climate change: Who does what in HMG? DECC – lead on mitigation policy (tackling the cause - greenhouse gas emissions) Defra – Leads on adaptation policy (dealing with consequences of a changing climate) DfID – support adaptation and mitigation programmes overseas

  6. Background • Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation • Defra’s Plan • Partnership with AONBs

  7. Scale of UK challenge: 80% cut in emissions • Defra is responsible for the majority of non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases. • The Climate Change Act 2008 and the Low Carbon Transition Plan 2009 established the Departmental Carbon Budget framework to cut emissions on the scale shown here.

  8. Scale of UK Challenge - agriculture and waste If we achieve Low Carbon Transition Plan commitments If agriculture stays at 2020 levels Historical If waste reduces 90% from 1990 Agriculture & waste 14% 11% 12% 30% 1990 2006 2020 2050

  9. Scale of UK Challenge: a changing climate

  10. Scale of Challenge - UKCP09 South West in 2050s (Medium Emissions Scenario) Drier Summer rainfall - about 10-30% less Warmer Mean summer temperatures about 2 degrees warmer

  11. Scale of Challenge UKCP09 South West 2080s (10% probability – high scenario) Much drier Summer rainfall - about 50-70% less Much warmer Mean summer temperatures about 6-8 degrees warmer

  12. Background • Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation • Defra’s Plan • Partnership with AONBs

  13. Defra Carbon Budget Plan: Cutting agricultural emissions • Voluntary Action Plan agreed with farming industry to deliver 3MTCO2e cost-saving emissions savings per annum by 2020 (x% cut). • Looking at options for further Government action if this is not on track by 2012. • Opportunities for farmers in renewables and bio-energy • Beyond 2020 – tough choices

  14. Defra Adaptation Plan – Agriculture Agriculture occupies 75% of UK land and is among the first to feel effects of climate change Opportunities: reduced frost; longer growing seasons and/or new crops/livestock species Risks: linked to more extreme and variable weather (storms, flooding, water scarcity/drought, heat stress, increased water pollution); new/more pests/diseases; variability in yield; need to change crops Defra role to support industry in response

  15. Defra Carbon Budget Plan: Forestry • The Read Report shows that Woodland creation provides highly cost-effective abatement. • 10,000 ha more woodland each year for 15 years would make major contribution – if continued to 2050 just 1-2% more land for woodland. • Looking at options to incentivise additional investment in woodland.

  16. Defra Adaptation Plan: Forestry Managing Risks -The interaction of climate change and tree pest and disease outbreaks is of concern. New pests and diseases may establish and existing ones become more aggressive (e.g. oak processionary moth,Phytophthora). Wider benefits – ecosystem benefits of trees and woodland support wider adaptation strategy – biodiversity, flood management, urban cooling, space for recreation

  17. Defra Adaptation Plan: Landscape • Climate change will affect many aspects of our cherished landscapes in the coming decades • Impacts through changes in flora and fauna and human responses to climate change. • Need to have an honest debate about how best we should manage these and other pressures to deliver maximum range of services for people and the environment: but avoiding change is not an option

  18. Illustrative farmed landscape

  19. Background • Scale of challenge: Mitigation and Adaptation • Defra’s Plan • Partnership with AONBs

  20. Defra and AONB Partnership • Defra, National Parks, AONBs and Natural England are working closely together on 2 year climate change Project. • Defra welcomes the Cotswolds Research Project on the Future of Farming and Forestry. • We need an ongoing partnership to respond to change.

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