1 / 14

Trends in Mortality and Morbidity and why you should care

Trends in Mortality and Morbidity and why you should care. Nigel Bradshaw. Mortality is improving, isn’t it?. And its not just the lads. Less selection in mortality rates. Put another way Is underwriting becoming less effective?. Overall critical illness trends OK?.

chaz
Download Presentation

Trends in Mortality and Morbidity and why you should care

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Trends in Mortality and Morbidityand why you should care Nigel Bradshaw

  2. Mortality is improving, isn’t it?

  3. And its not just the lads

  4. Less selection in mortality rates Put another way Is underwriting becoming less effective?

  5. Overall critical illness trends OK? Source: UK actuarial working party, accelerated CI for selected offices

  6. However storm clouds are brewingBest Estimate Avg Change % pa, England & Wales, 1980-2000 Men, aged 40 - 60 Source: UK Actuarial Trends in Critical Illness Summary of Trends in CI Incidence and Mortality

  7. Size of Balls Indicates Relative Importance of Cancer Site, measured by Incidence Rates in 1997. Cancer, post-smoking, shows especial concerns Source: UK Actuarial Trends in Critical Illness

  8. And its harder to interpret selection

  9. One reason is settlement delay CMI Critical Illness InvestigationDistribution of delays between diagnosis & settlement. All CI claims 1998-99.

  10. No selection allowing for the settlement delay CMI Critical Illness InvestigationInitial selection “discounts”, male n/smokers. Accelerated, lives,1999, A/E as % of Du 5+ A/E

  11. Similar for females CMI Critical Illness InvestigationInitial selection “discounts”, female n/smokers. Accelerated, lives,1999, A/E as % of Du 5+ A/E

  12. Should we care? • Doubling the effect of selection on a 25 year term assurance can reduce rates by 5% • An extra 1%pa improvement in mortality rates can reduce rates by 3% • A 2%pa worsening in critical illness experience could cost £6m on a £10m pa book of business. • Reducing underwriting costs by £40 could improve profitability by £1m on a £10m pa book of business

  13. Can we do something? • Yes and No • Yes • You can manage underwriting appropriately for your distribution and product set • You can build products that can be reviewed effectively • You can select lives for long-term risk profile as well as to avoid immediate anti-selection • No • You cannot alter national and global trends

  14. CMI Critical Illness Investigation – office differentials Accelerated business, non-smokers, all durations, lives, 1999 100A/E for 5 largest offices + remaining offices combined A last thought

More Related