Issues & Trends: Treading Water

1. Issues & Trends: Treading Water Michael Molenda Indiana University Michael Sullivan Agency for Instructional Technology AECT Convention, November 2002

2. Introduction • Objectives • Report results of 6th annual surveyof status of instructional technologyin corporate, higher education, and K-12 sectors • Compare 2002 data with previous data,seeking trends • Context • Survey is organized around the issues of: • Rates of adoption of IT • Constraints on adoption • Challenges to existing paradigms

3. Overall Themes • Economic trends: impact of recession • 2001 the worst year in Info Tech industry history • 500,000 jobs lost in U.S. • capital investments in IT declining • Tax shortfalls lead to cuts in K-12 and college • Retrenchment in technology expenditures • Adoption trends: struggling to advance • Face-to-face instruction holding ground • Traditional (analog) media remain popular • Faculty still slow to adopt digital … for familiar reasons

4. Corporate Training • Face-to-face (F2F) holding steady; used “always” or “often” at 90% of companies • F2F share of training time steady at about 75% (’01) • share of budget increased 2001 to 2002 • Print materials also continue high usage rate: 83% • Video (63%) and audio (8%) holding steady • Teleconferencing up slightly (“9/11 effect”?) • Audio conferencing (30%), Video conf. (17%), Web conf. (9%) each grew 3% [self-reports of frequent travelers] • Computer-based training (CBT) shifting format • E-learning share of training time still small, 11% (’01) • share of budget did not grow 2001 to 2002 • CD-ROM based training share steady at 42% • Internet/Intranet share growing: 27 to 54%

5. Corporate Training • Trends • “Web-based self-study” added to survey, 33% in 2002 • “Blended training” replacing straight F2F and CBT • 24% of all courses now “blended” (2002 survey)

6. Higher Education • Student Participation(NPSAS 2000) • 10% of all students took DE courses • 40% of these used TV/audio delivery • 60% used Internet delivery • Student Satisfaction • 23% more satisfied (than conventional courses) • 50% equally • 27% less satisfied

7. Higher Education • Faculty Participation(2001)

8. Higher Education • Pace of faculty adoption of Internet-based instruction is slowing; may peak below 50% for more advanced uses • Tools with highest potential for major learning improvement are used least • Faculty accept uses consistent with traditional roles • Analog media (still favored by faculty) conflicting with digital media (favored by administration) • Distance Ed losing its luster at traditional universities • Crash of many high-profile ventures • Successful business model is elusive for dual-mode • Consortia successful if degree granted by brand-name U. • Distance-only schools are thriving

9. Higher Education • Struggling to pay for info infrastructure • Wireless computing has upside and downside • Add-on to existing wired networks • TLTCs growing; valuable for faculty support, but add to cost • Real increase in teaching/learning productivity would require restructuring (cf. Math Emporium)

10. K-12 Education • K-12 funding declining in many states • large chunk of cuts are cuts to technology • in Indiana c. 20% of all cuts • Commercially produced media declining • Venture capital investment down 73% • Computers: School Access • 92% of schools have Internet access • 7:1 ratio, students to Internet-connected computer • Virtual schools take root • but 45% of enrollees are home-schooled or private • serve only 50,000 students total nation-wide (0.1%)

11. K-12 Education • Traditional (analog) media use: • Usage is hard to track, but certainly continues, is supplemental • VHS the dominant format: 80% of titles circulated by regional media centers • video collections dispersed to schools • New (digital) media use: • DVD still scarce • Growth in video streaming of digital video

12. K-12 Education • Computers: Teacher access (NCES 2000) • 99% have access in school • 84% have computer in classroom • Only 10% have 5 or more computers • 82% have computer at home • 75% of these have Internet connection • 27% could access school from home

13. K-12 Education • Teacher use • 50% with computers or Internet in school used them for “classroom instruction” (NCES 2000) • Most frequently used to create materials, info for lesson planning, communication with colleagues • “A majority use computers daily” reported in 78% of all schools (MDR 2002) • Student use • Frequency of use of different applications (Wisc. DPI, 2001) • Every day: word processing, spreadsheets • once a week: online “research” • few times a month: simulations, p/s with real data, e-mail “academic” communications • seldom: integrated learning systems • the major objective is remediation in low SES schools; information gathering in high SES schools (Becker,2001)

14. K-12 Education • Teacher Preparation and Training • “Majority of teachers are at intermediate skill level” reported at 51% of schools • up 11% in one year • Most have access to basic training, but fewer (67%) have access to follow-up training • Most training brief: Most teachers (77%) had 4 days or less of training over past 3 years • Proportion of technology expenditures devoted to training declined from 2000 to 2001 • Barriers to Use, according to teachers • Not enough computers • Lack of release time • Lack to time in schedule for student use

15. K-12 Education • Problem of quality instructional materials: Web has created expectation of free material. (Users want quality content but unwilling to pay for it.) • Software market has shrunk; few companies profitable • Free Web materials not instructional in nature; complaints about quality, curricular match • Problem of infrastructure cost • Schools not prepared for long-term tech costs • IT expenditures dropped between 1999-2001 • computer technology not getting cheaper as penetration increases

16. Conclusions • “Déjà vu” – computer usage patterns appear to be following S-curve of earlier media • TCO is increasing in school and college • Organizational dynamics explain differential patterns of adoption among corporations, colleges, schools