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2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II

2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II. The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output. Zoë O. Ambargis. 65 th Annual AUBER Fall Conference Indianapolis, IN October 8-11, 2011. Outline of Today’s Talk. Comparison of annual and benchmark multipliers

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2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II

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  1. 2008 Annual I-O Update of RIMS II The Effects of Changes in National and Local Economic Conditions on the Model’s Output Zoë O. Ambargis 65th Annual AUBER Fall Conference Indianapolis, IN October 8-11, 2011

  2. Outline of Today’s Talk • Comparison of annual and benchmark multipliers • Motivation for making comparisons • Factors contributing to differences

  3. Annual Update of RIMS II • Incorporates most recent data • More recent information about economy • Improvements in statistical methods • Evaluating the results shows • Changes in national and local economic conditions • Changes in technology

  4. Annual vs. Benchmark • Annual: • 2008 annual I-O and 2008 regional • Benchmark: • 2002 benchmark I-O and 2007 regional • 2002 benchmark I-O and 2008 regional

  5. Multipliers are Generally Lower Aggregate-level Final-demand Output Multiplier Statistics

  6. National Factors • Economic conditions • Hollowing out of U.S. economy • Increase in imports as a share of gross output • Changes in value added as a share of gross output • Increase in personal saving rates • Methodological improvements • Calculation of compensation in 2008 annual I-O table

  7. Imports U.S. Import Coefficients

  8. Compensation and Value Added Shares of Total Industry Output

  9. Personal Spending RIMS II Regional Personal Spending Rate U.S. Personal Tax and Saving Rates

  10. Regional Factors • North Carolina • Decline in furniture, paper, wood products, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts, and financial services • Louisiana • Increase in mining, real estate, transportation, and management services • Wyoming • Increase in mining, support activities for mining

  11. Summary • 2008 annual I-O multipliers generally lower than 2002 benchmark multipliers • National and regional effects • Effects of technical change • Implication on estimated impacts

  12. Thank You Zoë O. Ambargis RIMS II Section, Regional Product Division U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Phone: 202-606-5343 E-mail: RIMS@bea.gov 12

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