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Verification of forecasts against analysis - some problems

Exploring cross-verification methods of GME and ECMWF forecasts against analysis and each other, evaluating operational and experimental forecasts for accuracy using different aggregation types and area means.

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Verification of forecasts against analysis - some problems

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  1. Ulrich Damrath Verification of forecasts against analysis - some problems

  2. Overview: • Cross verificationagainstanalysis • Verificationof GME and ECMWF forecastsagainstownanalysisandagainstanalysisoftheothercentre • Verificationof operational forecastsof GME and experimental forecastsof GME • Verificationof COSMO-EU forecastsagainstownanalysisandagainstanalysisof ECMWF forshortestranges • Verificationfor different aggregationtypes • Useofareameans • Useof different climatologies UD

  3. Verification of GME and ECMWF forecasts against the own and the other analysis (one of the best cases) UD

  4. Verification of GME and ECMWF forecasts against the own and the other analysis (one of the worst cases) UD

  5. Verification of COSMO forecasts against the own and the analysis of ECMWF UD

  6. Conclusions: • Verification against analysis may lead to useful results if: • Forecast times are greater than about 24 hours. • Analysis schemes of the models to be compared have nearly the same properties. • Otherwise: • Numbers are calculated - but no results! • Results concerning the use of averaged fields could be expected. • When using a new climatology changes in long term time series concerning the anomaly correlation coefficient should be mentioned an interpreted. UD

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