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THOR as of 2011-03-21

THOR as of 2011-03-21. What is it all about?. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. NADW – North Atlantic Deep Water 1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 /s. 20 Years Prediction: THOR and its 5 Core Themes. Core Theme 1 MOC Variability. Core Theme 5 Technological Advancements.

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THOR as of 2011-03-21

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  1. THOR as of 2011-03-21

  2. What is it all about? Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation NADW – North Atlantic Deep Water 1 Sv = 106 m3/s

  3. 20 Years Prediction: THOR and its 5 Core Themes Core Theme 1MOC Variability Core Theme 5Technological Advancements Core Theme 2Model Uncertainty Core Theme 4Prediction & Predictability Core Theme 3 Observations

  4. Project Structure Governing Board (GB) Scientific Steering and Executive Committee (SSEC) Project Management and Coordination (UHAM) International Advisory Panel Gender Panel CT 1: Quantifying and modelling THC variability using palaeoclimate observations and simulations (MPI-M, MetO, UPMC, UiB, IFM-GEOMAR, NERSC, CNRS) CT 2: Assessing sources of uncertainty in ocean analyses and forecasts(DMI, MPI-M, MetO, UPMC, UiB, IFM-GEOMAR, NERSC) CT 3: Observations of the North Atlantic THC(UiB, UHAM, IFM-GEOMAR, HAV, MRI, NIOZ, NERC, SAMS, MPI-M) CT 4: Predictability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation(KNMI, MPI-M, MetO, ECMWF, UREAD, IFM-GEOMAR) CT 5: Technological Advancements for Improved near-realtime data transmission and Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Data Assimilation (IFM-GEOMAR, UHAM, UiB, NERC, ECMWF, KNMI)

  5. 5 Universities |9 Research Institutes |6 Governmental Operational Institutions Marine Research Institute Iceland Faroe Marine Research Institute Finnish Meteorological Institute University of Bergen Nansen Environmental Research Concil Scottish Association for Marine Science Danish Meteorological Institute University of Hamburg Max-Planck-Institute of Meteorology IFM-GEOMAR at University of Kiel Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Rocal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research MET Office UK ECMWF – European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts University of Reading Center for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Natural Envirnment Research Concil Université Pierre et Marie Curie Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Commissariat a I’Energie Atomique

  6. Analysis of Millennium-scale numerical experiments and paleo-records Core Theme 1: Understanding Variability Atlantic inflow into the Nordic Seas The observations and the model simulation show predominantly multidecadal-scale variability and a similar long-term evolution Otterå, Bentsen, Drange & Suo, 2010

  7. The figure shows how the vigor of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) (, in red) (Mjell et al. in prep) and basin wide temperature (AMO in blue, after Gray et al., 2004) have co-varied over the past 400 years. Core Theme 1: On-going Work i.e. Relation between newly observed overflow strength and the basin-wide temperature changes:

  8. i.e. melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, impact on the Ocean fresh water – salinity distribution after 30 years Input of 0.1 Sv around Greenland east & west east only west only Biastoch, 2010 Core Theme 2: Assessing Model Uncertainties Ocean reanalyses and observations, sensitivity experiments

  9. Core Theme 2: On-going Work Passive tracer release along the coast of Greenland After 3.5 years Working hypothesis: The effect of additional runoff on the convective activity in the interior Labrador Sea is weaker in models which resolves eddies. Coarser resolution models applying parameterizations which tend to cap the area with freshwater from the sides

  10. Core Theme 2: On-going Work Collapse of convection in the LS The coarse simulation is less effected by additional freshwater due to lower initial overturning and lack of initial deep convection in the Labrador Sea

  11. Core Theme 3: Observing the AMOC

  12. Volume transport of DSOW and EGC at Denmark Strait sill section (1995-2010); D. Quadfasel (IFM-UHAM) Transport data sets Hydrography data sets Volume and heat fluxes of Atlantic waters at Hornbanki section (1994-2009); S. Jónsson (MRI) Core Theme 3: On-going Work Heat content of central Labrador Sea from K1 T time series (1997-2009); J. Fischer (IFM-GEOMAR) Volume transport of DSOW from Angmag-ssalik array and T,S time series (1994-2009); D. Quadfasel (IFM-UHAM), S. Dye (CEFAS) Volume transport for deep western boundary current at the exit of the Labrador Sea (1997-2009); J. Fischer (IFM-GEOMAR) Volume fluxes of FBC overflow (1995-2010), IFR inflow (1997-2010) and CTD standard sections; B. Hansen (FFL) Volume fluxes of inflow of Atlantic waters in FSC (1994-2008), overflows at FSC and WTR (2003-2008) and CTD standard sections ; T. Sherwin (SAMS) Volume fluxes of MOC and mooring profiles of T,S at 26.50N (2004 - ongoing); S. Cunningham (NOCS/NERC) Volume fluxes and T,S time series for Central Irminger Sea (2002-2009); J. Fischer and J. Karstensen (IFM-GEOMAR) Volume fluxes in the Irminger Sea and CTD sections Between Greenland and Ireland (2003-2008); H. van Aken (NIOZ)

  13. Data + Model = Synthesis Core Theme 4: Prediction and Predictability Forecasts Hindcasts – ocean only initialisation Köhl pers. con. 2010 PREDICATE: Sutton, 2004

  14. i.e. Result: Optimal perturbations initial uncertainty forecast uncertainty reference forecast ensemble forecasts Core Theme 4: On-going work reality Optimal perturbations for decadal climate predictions are: • climate perturbations which grow most rapidly • consistent with the observational uncertainties • useful for: • efficient perturbations in ensemble forecasts • identifying regions where additional observations would be most valuable to improve predictions

  15. Core Theme 4: On-going work Example optimal perturbations in temperature Bergen CM EC-EARTH HadGEM1 IPSL CM4 MPI Ed Hawkins UREAD, in prep

  16. Core Theme 5: Technological Advancements Real true data transmission from moorings Data assimilation in coupled models

  17. Core Theme 5: On-going 1. Real true data transmission from moorings The Bergen System (accomplished)

  18. Core Theme 5: On-going 1. Real true data transmission from moorings The Kiel System (testing)

  19. Core Theme 5: On-going 2. Data assimilation in THOR coupled model • coupling: replacement of seaice- and ocean- compartments of the PlanetSimulator by MITogcm plus seaice • configuration: coarse resolution setup with an atmosphere on a T21 grid and 5 sigma levels, and the MITogcm on a 5.625º grid having the North Pole shifted to Greenland, using 15 vertical levels • testing: coupled system with single CPU on a notebook, performance is approx. 30 model years/day

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