Rural Territorial Dynamics in Latin America

1. Rural Territorial Dynamicsin Latin America Manuel Chiriboga OECD 7th Annual Rural Development Conference "Developing rural polices to meet the needs of a changing world” Quebec, Canada, 13-15 October

2. KEY CHALLENGES • Changes in rural and national societies • Diversification of the rural economy • Urbanization and new urban-rural relations • Decentralization • New social and economic actors Corollary: • Rural ≠ agricultural • Agriculture-led only rural development questioned

3. KEY CHALLENGES Corollary: • Same policy has different impact in different regions • Different regions have different capacity to participate in development opportunities 2. Preparatory work for the WDR 2008 • Relationship between economic growth, poverty reduction and greater income equality, varied by large regions

4. KEY CHALLENGES Corollary: • A split between economically-integrated and socially-integrated or left behind regions • Is there room for place-based development policies even in regions that lack a natural competitive advantage? 3. Mainstream ‘Washington Consensus’ rural development strategy (e.g., WDR 2009) • Economic development policies for those products, firms and regions with comparative advantages • Social policies for the rest

5. RURAL TERRITORIAL DYNAMICS PROGRAM • A research-based program on rural economic growth, social inclusion and environmental sustainability in Latin America and its policy implications. • 19 territories in 11 countries, 5 years With a large network of partners

6. FIRST PHASE OBJECTIVES First Phase: • Changes in development outcomes as indicators of development dynamics • What are the changes over time in development outcomes at the local level in the participating countries? • Aggregate economic well-being (proxied by average per capita consumption and/or income) • Poverty (proxied by the incidence of poverty) • Economic inequality (proxied by the gini coefficient of per capita consumption or income)

7. METHODS • Combines • Population censi – representativeness • Household surveys – richness of data including income or consumption • Small Area Estimates (Elbers, Lanjouw, Lanjouw 2003)

8. MAPPING CHANGES AT THE MUNICIPAL LEVEL • Different behavior of indicators: Win = W or (+), Lose = L or (-) • 400 million persons, 73% of Latin America • 10 thousand municipalities • Change over last two censi (1990s – 2000s) • Average per capita income (or consumption) • Incidence of poverty • Gini coefficient of per capita income (or consumption)

9. DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES

10. TRENDS IN BRAZIL, 1991 - 2000

11. TRENDS IN PERU, 1993 - 2005

12. TRENDS IN MEXICO, 1990-2005

13. TRENDS IN CHILE, 1992-2002

14. NEXT STAGES Understanding initial findings: • In depth research in 19 territories to explain differences in development outcomes • Based in both qualitative and quantitative methods

15. INITIAL FINDINGS • Pro-development coalitions in territories matter • Inclusive Institutions and local business climate are key to equitable growth • Social Capital in territories enhance pro-poor growth • Effective and Inclusive Governance can make the difference

16. CAPACITY BUILDING • Support to subnational equitable growth strategies • Capacity development at subnational level • Policy dialogue and incidence at subnational, national and international levels • Support to innovative practices already being implemented • Networking amongst territories and with territories outside Latin America on public policies and best practices

17. NEXT PRESENTATIONS Territorial policy responses in: • Chile • Brazil • Mexico How public programs in these countries intend to correct disparities and create new opportunities for rural populations?

18. www.rimisp.org/dtr Rimisp - Latin American Center for Rural Development Funded by