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Survival Prediction for Pancreatic Cancer. Pancreatic Cancer. 37,170 new cases are expected to occur in the US in 2007 33,370 people will die of pancreatic cancer this year 1-yr and 5-yr survival rates are 26% and 5%. (5 yr survival is the smallest of all types of cancer). Motivation.
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Pancreatic Cancer • 37,170 new cases are expected to occur in the US in 2007 • 33,370 people will die of pancreatic cancer this year • 1-yr and 5-yr survival rates are 26% and 5%. (5 yr survival is the smallest of all types of cancer)
Motivation • No tools to reliably predict remaining lifetime for cancer patients • Most of the tools in the literature are based on regression models built on a subset of the features: molecular markers, tumor characteristics, demographic factors • Physicians, to a large extent, use intuitive assessment based on past experiences
Current Approaches to Survival Studies • Statistical testing for establishing significance of correlation between markers and physical features with survival • Limitations • Survival prediction is not part of the model
Current Approaches • Markov models for disease progression • Limitations • Inadequate state definition (Kay, 1986)
Our approach Sets of markers S2 S1 Sn Evidence In Literature S3 Set of Markers correlated with survival. Death Time to death function. Each state Markov Model