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Preparing for the Future Jonathan Capstick

www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation. Preparing for the Future Jonathan Capstick. Adaptation. Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future. Looking to the Future: misconceptions. Predictions Come True Technology Solves One Future First World Comes First

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Preparing for the Future Jonathan Capstick

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  1. www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Preparing for the FutureJonathan Capstick

  2. Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future

  3. Looking to the Future: misconceptions Predictions Come True Technology Solves One Future First World Comes First Space 1999: living on the Moon

  4. But we know about some key risks Unavoidable climate change Risks of not cutting emissions Population Increases Peak Oil

  5. Protect & Survive “The danger posed by climate change cannot be denied Future generations will look back and wonder why we refused to act Why we failed to pass on an environment that was worthy of our inheritance.” President Obama Global warning: Sydney dust storm just the beginning

  6. Adaptation vs mitigation – the balance Adaptation and Mitigation. We cannot have one without the other. We filled the cup – we need to deal with the consequences This is a key principle of Stern

  7. What is adaptation? Understanding Assessing Action

  8. Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future

  9. Evidence: Projections www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation • Copenhagen • UK’s 80% goal • Prepare for the impacts • Protect • Seize opportunities • Common Goals Ancient glaciers are disappearing faster than ever (24th Sept)

  10. Strategic Planning: Risks and Opportunities Probability VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Some climate variable

  11. Emissions Pathways • IPCC Emission Scenarios • High • Medium • Low • World Stabilisation Scenario • Peak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4% www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation GHG Increase GtCO2e Where we are now

  12. Range of Futures www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low Global Average Temperatures Where we are heading Temp Rise degC

  13. What are they based on? www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Global Average Temperatures Some change is certain Temp Rise degC Where we need to be

  14. 2080s – A Possible Future Significant Changes Our houses, infrastructure and natural environment are not adapted Changes to how we use land, water International effects

  15. Summer average temperature www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 2 to 3ºC increase 3 to 4ºC increase Unlikely to be less than 2.00C or greater than 6.40C for SE 2080s 4 to 5ºCincrease But we could see 5 times the number of very hot days & the hottest day of the year could be up to 10ºC higher South-East England central estimate Medium emissions 15

  16. Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures 2060s 2040s 2003 Source Met Office Hadley Centre Summer Temperatures in context www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation We are already committed to this from past emissions alone 35 000 people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of 2003 – effective planning is essential

  17. Summer rainfall www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 10% to 20% decrease 20 to 30%decrease 30% to 40%decrease Unlikely to be less than -49% or greater than +6% for SW, 2080s South West central estimate Medium emissions 17

  18. Winter rainfall www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 0% to 10%decrease 10% to 20%increase Unlikely to be less than +3% or greater than +35% for NW, 2080s 20% to 30%increase But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North North West central estimate Medium Emissions 18

  19. Sea level rise www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Central Estimate Possible Outcome High++ scenario: 2100 Rises up to 1.9 m 19

  20. Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future

  21. What are we doing already? www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 21

  22. Adaptation Team – Our Framework

  23. Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) National – Regional - Local

  24. Adaptation Reporting Power www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation • key sectors to report on the impacts to them of climate change • Primary lever for Govt • Consultation just ended Current Vulnerability to Climate Change No Existing Comprehensive Regulation Relating to Adaptation Responsible for National Infrastructure Energy Water Electronic communications Emergencies Health & social care Transport Environment

  25. Adaptation Crystal Balls Evidence - Projections & CCRA Action Now Action in the Future

  26. Adaptation in the Short Term www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 2008 2009 2010 2011/2 Website LRAP Climate Change Act UKCIP NI188 Guidance LA support Projections launch & rollout Adpt Sub Committee 1st report CC Risk Assessment Adaptation Sub- Committee National Programme Departmental Adaptation Plans Statutory Guidance General Election Regional Strategies

  27. No Fate But What We Make Ambassadors for action on Climate Change Providing Help to others Working together

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