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“New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems” Seonaid Dey

“New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems” Seonaid Dey. DIAMET meeting 7 th-8th March 2011. Supervisors: Bob Plant, Nigel Roberts and Stefano Migliorini. Introduction. Project aims Case study of 08/07/2011 Current work Future plans. Project aims.

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“New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems” Seonaid Dey

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  1. “New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems”Seonaid Dey DIAMET meeting 7th-8th March 2011 Supervisors: Bob Plant, Nigel Roberts and Stefano Migliorini

  2. Introduction • Project aims • Case study of 08/07/2011 • Current work • Future plans

  3. Project aims • Link statistical measures such as multivariate covariances with physical processes and spatial verification measures • Investigate how deterministic techniques can be extended to ensembles • Look into meteorological aspects and scales that are useful for determining predictability

  4. Work so far 1: 08/07/2011 • Convective precipitation • Flooding • MOGREPS-UK 2.2km 12 member ensemble

  5. Work so far 2: Spatial measures Fractions skill score (FSS) 1- perfect match 0- totally different All member pairs Member-radar pairs

  6. Work so far 3: correlations • Vertical (spatial) correlations 3D Fields: Horizontal Divergence Horizontal wind speed Rain rates Wind shear z Field 1 Field 2

  7. Work so far 4: example correlation 09:00- Before precipitation 12:00 - During precipitation

  8. Next steps • Spatial horizontal correlations • Relate correlations to spatial measures • Spatially varying FSS • Other cases Large scale forcing (DIAMET) Local forcing (COPE)

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