Grand Challenges in Discrete Event Logistics Systems

1. Grand Challenges in Discrete Event Logistics Systems Daily Recap

2. Monday, 8 March 900 Opening Session 1000 Keynote from Academia (StephaneDauzere-Peres, EMSE, St. Etienne/France) 1100 Break 1130 Keynote from a Software Vendor (Joerg Dickersbach, Wassermann AG, Munich/Germany) 1230 Lunch & Free Time 1400 Panel I: State of the Art/Practice in DELS; Successes & Failures (Horst Zisgen, Peter Lendermann, Benoit Montreuil) 1530 Break 1600 Panel II: State of the Art/Practice in DELS; Successes & Failures (Christian Almeder, Scott Mason, Sven Spieckermann, Arnd Schirrmann) 1800 Dinner

3. StephaneDauzere-Peres • Much available optimization technology, but still a challenge to model practical constraints • Decomposition often essential, but may introduce coordination problems • E.g., how to combine lumpy & continuous variables • What are the limits to efficiency in large complex DELS? • When can operational models be used for tactical decisions?

4. JoergDickersbach • Many “not grand” challenges • Some grand challenges • Achieving ease of use for complex systems • Implementing models so that the system can explain why a (not intuitive) result is returned • Systems that “present” in a manner compatible with users’ knowledge and skill level

5. Panel I: Horst Zisgen, Peter Lendermann, Benoit Montreuil How to identify and resolve the understanding gap between model developers and model users How to manage the data development, collection, rectification, and consumption What is generic versus domain specific? How to cope with humans in DELS? How do we know a DELS model is adding value?

6. Panel I: Zisgen, Lendermann, Montreuil If there’s no steady state, how do our models actually help decision makers? Can we break the contemporary paradigm of physical logistics using analogy to internet? Can we create an open unified modeling framework for DELS (and the physical internet)?

7. Panel II: Almeder, Mason, Spieckermann, Schirrmann What do we ask from models? (understanding, forecasting, decision aiding) Can there be a uniform and validated approach to creating & using simulations for short term decision support in DELS? Decision support tool versus decision support environment Are there generic approaches to leveraging computational capabilities for “reality” constraints?

8. Panel II: Almeder, Mason, Spieckermann, Schirrmann • How do we incorporate risk in DELS models? • How do we integrate sustainment? • Can we transform modeling from an ad hoc practice to an engineering practice? • Common representations, conceptual modeling tools, • New modeling challenges • Health monitoring, performance based logistics • Interoperability in massively global models

9. Tuesday, 9 March 900 Convene: Recap previous day, discuss goals for today 915 Keynote from Industry (Heino Ostermeier, Airbus Spares, Hamburg/Germany): Grand Challenges in Discrete Event Logistics Systems 1015 Break 1045 Panel III: State of the Art/Practice in DELS; Successes & Failures (Russell D. Meller, Lars Moench, Oliver Rose) 1230 Lunch & Free Time 1400 Panel IV: Modeling--How We Think About DELS (CathalHeavey, Volker Nissen, Hans Ehm) 1530 Break 1600 Breakout I: Grand Challenges in Modeling 1730 Breakout Reports and Discussion 2000 (time to be re-confirmed) “Wine and Cheese” Party, sponsored by EADS

10. HeinoOstermeier Aircraft business is changing; in maintenance, transition from parts-centric to customer mission-centric Issues for automation include: data quality, decision support for people, interoperability Issues with conditions or events that were not foreseen in developing/deploying systems Users must understand limitations of the models they are using, and the complexity of their system

11. Panel III: Meller, Moench, Rose Research success factor—focus on specific issue For many basic questions, we have no direct answers In practice, 60% of solutions are custom, vs 40% package software Structure for modeling systems might be based on “base system, operative system, control system, planning system” Reference models for DELS

12. Panel III: Meller, Moench, Rose Many opportunities in algorithm and s/w design More data available than is profitably used Meta-models for problem, solution, tool Model building process (workflow) Expanded criteria and constraints

13. Panel IV: Heavy, Nissen, Ehm Need to move from document based to model based approach for simulation modeling; would support knowledge capture and re-use Need open framework for simulation application development (adaptive?) Need to be able to deal with hybrid goods How can we “industrialize” model development—move beyond hand crafting? Balancing complexity, flexibility, robustness

14. Panel IV: Heavy, Nissen, Ehm Synaptic networks provide adaptive responses; can we make logistics networks like this? Need consistent education for globally distributed system users; use serious games? How can we insure that “master users” will be able to overcome the inevitable limitations of complex decision support systems? Unified framework for material, info, value

15. Breakout I: Grand Challenges in Modeling • In order to think about DELS, or to provide analysis to support DELS decision making • Models, or formal representations of DELS must be provided • Can be implicit or explicit. • Our interest is in explicit models • Physical structure and behavior of the DELS of interest (the DELS “plant”) • Operational, tactical, or strategic decision making (the DELS “control”) • Decision support process itself • Models may be crude approximations or high fidelity representations • To be useful, models must be populated with instance data Focus of the breakout: • Models and modeling processes per se (not the methodology used to analyze the resulting models) • What modeling capabilities (e.g., model creation, model validation, model communication, integration of models with corporate IS) will be available once “Grand Challenges” have been met? • What challenges would have been overcome to attain those capabilities?

16. Breakout 1 Teams

17. Report Out I

18. Wednesday, 10 March 900 Convene: Recap previous day, discuss goals for today 915 Panel V: DELS Analysis/Synthesis Methodology (John Fowler, Martin Grunow, Stefan Nickel) 1030 Break 1100 Breakout II: Grand Challenges in DELS Analysis/Synthesis 1230 Lunch & Free Time 1400 Breakout II Report Out & Discussion 1500 "Wednesday Afternoon Outing"

19. Panel V: Fowler, Grunow, Nickel Many of “grand challenges” identified in previous Dagstuhl, still applicable—how to change that? Validating large complex models to gain insight on structural properties, beyond “it depends” Data both abundant and in short supply Network design complicated by number of facility types, echelons, recycling; re-design

20. Panel V: Fowler, Grunow, Nickel Hard to incorporate “practical” issues in large network models—routing, risk, health monitoring, multi-model integration What should we be trying to do with models? Models as “games” – what is the game engine? Is “optimization” the right goal? What errors/mistakes result from trying to “optimize” but failing?

21. Breakout II: Grand Challenges in Analysis/Synthesis • It is not enough to have representations of DELS • We must be able to use those representations to support decisions, • Predict the results from taking specified decisions • Identify the “best” decisions to take, etc. Focus of the breakout: • What analysis/synthesis capabilities will be available once “Grand Challenges” have been met? • What analysis/synthesis challenges would have been overcome to attain those capabilities?

22. Breakout 2 Teams

23. Breakout 2 Report Out Model based management : models are ubiquitous; used to describe/understand the enterprise, the data space, the decision space, the kpi used, etc. Need tools to navigate, manipulate, experience, query, aggregate these models across geography, time, organization, etc. Universal analysis/synthesis tools appropriate to the model and the purpose: unified, open, language, etc.

24. Wednesday Afternoon Outing 1500 Departure from Dagstuhl 1600 Sightseeing 1700 Wine Tasting 1830 Dinner 2000 Leave for Dagstuhl 2100 Arrive @ Dagstuhl

25. Thursday, 11 March 900 Convene: Recap previous day, discuss goals for today 915 Panel VI: Network Governance and Decision Aiding (Herbert Kopfer, Paul Valckenaers, Andreas Fink) 1030 Break 1100 Breakout III: Grand Challenges in Network Governance and Decision Aiding 1230 Lunch & Free Time 1400 Breakout IV: Grand Challenges in Network Governance and Decision Aiding 1530 Break 1600 Breakout Reports and Discussion 1800 Dinner

26. Breakout III: Grand Challenges in Network Governance and Decision Aiding • DELS are changing through the emergence of global networks for producing and support a product or family of products • Design and manufacturing…through sustainment…to end-of-life treatment • Ford “world car”, Airbus 380/Boeing 787, Lockheed Joint Strike Fighter, Apple iPhone • These programs invariable grow a network of relationships among firms that may collaborate on the program yet compete outside the program • Networks must be robust, reliable, fast, and efficient Focus of the breakout: • What new challenges do these changes bring in terms of governing these networks and in providing quantitative analysis to support governing decisions? • What kinds of R&D is needed to meet these challenges?

27. Breakout 3: Background One way in which DELS are changing is the emergence of global networks for producing and support a product or family of products, from design and manufacturing, through sustainment and to end-of-life treatment. Examples abound, whether it is the Ford “world car”, the Airbus 380, Boeing 787, Lockheed Joint Strike Fighter, or the Apple iPhone.

28. Breakout 3: Charge These programs invariable grow a network of relationships among firms that may collaborate on the program yet compete outside the program. These networks must be robust, reliable, fast, and efficient. What new challenges do these changes bring in terms of governing these networks and in providing quantitative analysis to support governing decisions? What kinds of R&D is needed to meet these challenges?

29. Breakout 3 Teams

30. Breakout IV: Grand Challenges in Network Governance and Decision Aiding Repeat Breakout III with different discussion groups Refining the identification of the challenges and of the needed R&D

31. Breakout 4 Teams

32. Breakout Alt Teams

33. Friday, 12 March 900 Panel VII: Future of DELS Research and Practice (Dirk Mattfeld, Leon McGinnis) 1030 Break 1100 Wrap Up Session 1200 Adjourn & Lunch

34. Special Issue of Computers in Industry Submission deadline: June 1st, 2010 Completion of first-round reviews: September 1st, 2010 Revised papers: November 1st, 2010 Target of the second (last) round of reviews: December, 31th, 2010 Target for sending the accepted manuscripts to the publisher: February 1st, 2011

35. Breakout Sessions

36. Wrap-Up Plenary Try to integrate what has been learned or proposed during the previous 4 days Create a prioritized list of the DELS Grand Challenges