1 / 29

Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting 15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’

Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting 15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’. ERCOT. Summary. Charts show comparisons of Load and Net Load forecasted values to corresponding SCED actuals for calendar year 2013

cheung
Download Presentation

Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting 15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting 15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’ ERCOT Loads in SCED v2

  2. Summary • Charts show comparisons of Load and Net Load forecasted values to corresponding SCED actuals for calendar year 2013 • Load and Net Load forecasts are inputs to indicative ‘look-ahead’ price application • Charts compare forecasted values to first interval, and 15-minute & 30-minute ‘look-ahead’ • Errors are shown in terms of MW as well as % of actual demand (or actual net load) Note: • Results show that improvements to forecast values will be needed in order to move forward on a Real-Time multi-interval optimization framework • Current Short-Term Load forecast application methodology (5 minute granularity) was developed in the Zonal market • There is currently no Short-Term Wind forecast (5 minute granularity) Loads in SCED v2

  3. Terminology • MW Forecast Error in GTBD = Forecast Demand – Actual Demand • % Forecast Error in GTBD = MW Error in Forecast Demand / Actual Demand • Net Actual Load = Actual Demand – Total Telemetered Wind MW output • Forecast Net Load = Forecast Demand – Forecast Wind MW output • MW Forecast Error in Net Load = Forecast Net Load – Net Actual Load • % Forecast Error in Net Load = MW Error in Net Load / Net Actual Load • Actual demand is the GTBD used by SCED Loads in SCED v2

  4. Summary Loads in SCED v2

  5. Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : First Interval Mean = 0.01 MW Standard Deviation = 2.58 MW Loads in SCED v2

  6. Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -3.22 MW Standard Deviation = 251.85 MW Loads in SCED v2

  7. Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -2.53 MW Standard Deviation = 369.07 MW Loads in SCED v2

  8. Forecasted Demand Error (%) : First Interval Mean = 0.000035 % Standard Deviation = 0.00751 % Loads in SCED v2

  9. Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.0031 % Standard Deviation = 0.6842 % Loads in SCED v2

  10. Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.0037 % Standard Deviation = 1.00126 % Loads in SCED v2

  11. Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : First Interval Mean = 0.01 MW Standard Deviation = 2.58 MW Loads in SCED v2

  12. Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -3.22 MW Standard Deviation = 251.85 MW Loads in SCED v2

  13. Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -2.53 MW Standard Deviation = 369.07 MW Loads in SCED v2

  14. Forecasted Demand Error (%) : First Interval Mean = 0.000035 % Standard Deviation = 0.00751 % Loads in SCED v2

  15. Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.0031 % Standard Deviation = 0.6842 % Loads in SCED v2

  16. Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.0037 % Standard Deviation = 1.00126 % Loads in SCED v2

  17. Net Load Forecast Error Loads in SCED v2

  18. Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : First Interval Mean = 0.01 MW Standard Deviation = 2.58 MW Loads in SCED v2

  19. Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -3.22 MW Standard Deviation = 284 MW Loads in SCED v2

  20. Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -2.59 MW Standard Deviation = 456.8 MW Loads in SCED v2

  21. Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : First Interval Mean = 0.000044 % Standard Deviation = 0.00894 % Loads in SCED v2

  22. Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.00478 % Standard Deviation = 0.8855 % Loads in SCED v2

  23. Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.01206 % Standard Deviation = 1.4363 % Loads in SCED v2

  24. Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : First Interval Mean = 0.01 MW Standard Deviation = 2.58 MW Loads in SCED v2

  25. Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -3.22 MW Standard Deviation = 284 MW Loads in SCED v2

  26. Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -2.59 MW Standard Deviation = 456.8 MW Loads in SCED v2

  27. Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : First Interval Mean = 0.000044 % Standard Deviation = 0.00894 % Loads in SCED v2

  28. Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.00478 % Standard Deviation = 0.8855 % Loads in SCED v2

  29. Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead” Mean = -0.01206 % Standard Deviation = 1.4363 % Loads in SCED v2

More Related