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Transporte y Clima

Transporte y Clima. Cooperacion entre el Gobierno de Mexico, el DF y el Banco Mundial Noviembre 29, 2006 Walter Vergara, World Bank. Variaciones en la temperatura de la superficie del planeta en el hemisferio norte. Houston: We have a problem. 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data;

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Transporte y Clima

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  1. Transporte y Clima Cooperacion entre el Gobierno de Mexico, el DF y el Banco Mundial Noviembre 29, 2006 Walter Vergara, World Bank

  2. Variaciones en la temperatura de la superficie del planeta en el hemisferio norte Houston: We have a problem. • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections

  3. Cambio proyectado de temperaturas para el ano 2100 (IPCC 4AR; 2007) Fuente: Borrador del Cuarto Informe IPCC

  4. Clima peligroso • 0.6 C Blanqueo total de corales en el Caribe • 0.6 C Antarctica occidental pierde volumen de hielo • 1.0 C Retroceso catastrofico de glaciares en los Andes • 1.6 C Perdida irreversble de hielo en Groenlandia • 2-3 C Sabanizacion de la floresta amazonica • 4 C Colapso del gradiente termo-halino • Source: Exeter Conference, 2005

  5. Se proyecta una intensificacion en la fuerza de huracanes como resultado del aumento de la temperatura de superficie del mar Fuente: Webster et al, 2006, unpublished data

  6. Cambio relativo en escorrentias proyectado para el ano 2050 Fuente: P. C. D. Milly1, K. A. Dunne1 & A. V. Vecchia2 Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. . Nature: Nov 2005

  7. Disminucion proyectada de lluvias para el final de siglo. Perez and Mendez, unpublished data, 2006

  8. Emisiones globales de gases invernadero Country Total Ton/GDP Ton/cap (BTA) ton/$Mpp • USA 6.9 720 24.6 • EU-25 4.7 450 10.5 • Germany 1.0 470 12.3 • Japan 1.3 400 10.4 • China 4.9 1020 3.9 • India 1.9 770 1.9 • Mexico 0.5 590 5.2 • Brazil 0.8 680 5.0 • Argentina 0.3 660 8.1 • Total 33.6 • Source: WRI, 2006

  9. Emisiones globales de CO2

  10. Fuente: EIA, 2005

  11. Transporte: Participacion creciente en el problema a nivel global • Region Growth (90-02) current in CO2 share of total transp.CO2 • Europe 25 23% 18% • US & Canada 24% 39% • Japan 20% 5% • China 101% 5% • Latin America 46% 6% • Mexico 21% 2% Source: IEA, 2005

  12. Por tanto, la reduccion de emisiones del sector es clave para enfrentar la crisis Source: T&E, 2004

  13. La senal tecnologica A quien seguimos en terminos de: modelo de transporte urbano, tipo de vehiculos y combustibles, especificaciones y emisiones?

  14. Transporte: elementos de la solucion • Marco (instituciones, regulaciones, incentivos, Kyoto) • Combustibles • Motores y sistemas • Cambio modal

  15. Apoyo del Banco a Mexico en el area de Cambio Climatico • Apoyo institucional y de manejo de informacion. • IDF • Simulador de la Tierra • Analisis de impactos de huracanes • Apoyo a la aplicacion del protocolo de Kioto y programas operacionales del GEF. • Apoyo en el area de adaptacion.

  16. Apoyo del Banco al DF en asuntos de transporte y clima • GEF: Introduction of Climate Friendly Measures in TransportGEF (OP11); US$5.8M, total funding: US$12.2M (US$1.0 M from EMBARQ) • PHRD: BRT Design • World Bank PHRD: US$1.2M • CETF: Provide external peer reviews for formulation of tools for CF and review of field test CETF: US$0.25M • Transport Corridors Project • World Bank Spanish Carbon Fund: Purchase of emission reductions

  17. Proyecto GEF de transporte y clima (aprobado en 2002) • 1. Armonizacion de estrategias en calidad del aire, clima y transporte • 2. Apoyo al desarrollo de un marco regulatorio institucional • 3. Prueba de campo para vehiculos de alta capacidad • 4. Asistencia tecnica y entrenamiento • 5. Diseminacion

  18. Armonizacion de politicas • First Latin American City to formulate a climate action plan, including measures that deal with: • Urban planning • Air quality • Transport • To be released at SBSTA 25 in Bonn, May 2007

  19. Enabling environment for Corridors (removal of barriers) • Design of the institutional framework for management and operation of the corridor • Design of the business structure • Reform of local regulations • Engineering of the infrastructure • Basic design • EIA • Social assessment

  20. Field test of advanced bus technologies • Real time measurements of environmental and financial advantages • Dynamometer and on board measurements: • Provision of CNG and low sulfur fuels • Participants: Ecomex, Allison Drives, Electra-Bus, Pemex, Volvo, Scania, MB, Faw, Ankai

  21. … some results • Measured PM emissions from all of the natural gas fueled buses and from the natural gas, dual-fuel were extremely low • The natural gas buses exhibited the lowest NOx emissions • The series drive hybrid bus exhibited the lowest GHG emissions per passenger-km (30% lower) • CNG vehicles had lower GHG emissions than diesel • Hybrid series bus exhibited the second-lowest NOx emission

  22. Hybrid drives (better energy efficiency, low GHG) • Parallel hybrid drive (Allison, US-Canada) • Series hybrid drive (Eletrabus, Brazil)

  23. CNG vehicles: lower PMs, HMWHCs, NOx emissions, better GHG emissions than diesel • CNG standard (Ankai, China) • CNG articulates (Faw, China)

  24. Mexico: Transport Corridors (Carbon finance-CDCF, for sale of CERs) • Operation of Corridors will result in GHG emission reductions; • Modal shift • Improve energy efficiency of vehicles • Lower congestion • Measuring emissions require combination of measurements and surveys • Credibility is an issue (solid statistical design) • Costs of monitoring have to be kept low

  25. Como se reducen las emisiones de GHG en Metrobus? • by replacing old inefficient technology with modern more fuel efficient, high capacity technology • by improving the flow of vehicles along a corridor, its feeder routes or other corridors within an urban area (through a decrease in travel time for a given distance) • through modal switch from cars and small buses to mass-transit

  26. Metrobus in operation • Besides normal operation, • it is supported through a • careful monitoring system. • ER revenues are used to • Support: • bicycle connectivity • accounting of ERs • Metrobus Master-Plan

  27. Que sigue? • Expand BRT-Metrobus to other avenues in Mexico City (including the first hybrid-dedicated BRT, worldwide) • Support commercialization of advanced bus technologies: CNG-Hybrid • Support improvements in fuel specifications and emission standards • Continue to bring Kyoto protocol resources to support BRTs

  28. Como puede ayudar el Banco Mundial • Mercado de reduccion de emisiones. El Banco tiene 7 fondos con un capital de Euros 1,300 millones para compra de reduccion de emisiones • Adaptacion a cambio climatico. Dos nuevos fondos para apoyar la implementacion de medidas especificas de adaptacion • Apoyo a la investigacion y conocimiento con un nuevo instrumento (CCIG) • Apoyo a la deforestacion evitada, bajo una iniciativa piloto.

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