Probability

1. 7 Probability • Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events • Definition ofProbability • Rules of Probability • Use of Counting Techniques in Probability • Conditional Probability and Independent Events • Bayes’ Theorem

2. Terminology An experiment is an activity with observable results (called outcomes). A sample point is an outcome of an experiment. The sample space is the set of all possible sample points. An event is a subset of a sample space.

3. Ex. Rolling a die once Outcomes: landing with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 face up. Sample Space: S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Events: Impossible event Certain event

4. Ex. An experiment consists of spinning the hand on the disk below two times. Find the sample space. P C W S = {(P,C), (P,W), (P,P), (C,P), (C,W), (C,C), (W,P), (W,C), (W,W)}

5. Events The union of events A and B is the event The intersection of events A and B is the event The complement of event A is the event AC. Ex. Rolling a die once. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {1, 3, 5}

6. Events A and B are mutually exclusive if Ex. When rolling a die, if event A = {2, 4, 6} (evens) and event B = {1, 3, 5} (odds), then A and B are mutually exclusive. Ex. When drawing a single card from a standard deck of cards, if event A = {heart, diamond} (red) and event B = {spade, club} (black), then A and B are mutually exclusive.

7. Probability The probability of an event occurring is a measure of the proportion of the time that the event will occur in the long run. Finding the Probability of an Event Suppose that in n trials an event E occurs m times. The relative frequency of the event E is m/n. If the relative frequency approaches some value P(E) as n becomes larger, then P(E) is called the empirical probability of E.

8. Ex. The table below represents the frequency of certain types of license plates observed by a family on a recent trip. Find the probability distribution. Notice 150 total observations

9. Ex. Assume that when rolling a die each face is equally likely to show up. If event E = {2} then since S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, we have P(E) = 1/6. That is, the probability of rolling a 2 is 1 in 6. Similarly, the probability of rolling any face number is 1/6 .

10. Let S = {s1, s2, s3,…,sn} where each si represents a simple event (all mutually exclusive) and let P(si) represent the probability of event si. The function P, which assigns a probability to each simple event is called a probability function. Also probabilities are between 0 and 1 their sum is 1 add probabilities

11. Finding the Probability of an Event E • Determine a sample space S associated with the experiment. • Assign probabilities to the simple events of S. • If E = {s1, s2, s3,…,sn} (each a simple event) then P(E) = P(s1) + P(s2) +…+ P(sn). If E is the empty set then P(E) = 0.

12. Ex. An experiment consists of spinning the hand on the disk below one time. Assume each outcome is equally likely. A C W Find P(C) and then find Notice S = {C, A, W} each of which has a probability of 1/3.

13. Properties of the Probability Function If E and F are mutually exclusive, then

14. Ex. A local grocery store has kept track of the amount of money spent by its customers on a single visit. The probability table that follows was prepared from that data. Find the probability that if a customer is selected at random, the amount spent by the customer will be • More than $150 • More than $50 but less than or equal to $200 = 0.15 = 0.50

15. Property 4 Addition Rule If E and F are any two events of an experiment, then Subtract overlap E F Note: If E and F are mutually exclusive, then

16. Ex. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards. What is the probability that it is a king or a heart? K = King and H = Heart

17. Property 5 Rule of Complements If E is an event of an experiment and EC denotes the complement of E, then Ex. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 playing cards. What is the probability that it is not a king? K = pick a king,

18. Computing the Probability of an Event in a Uniform Sample Space Let S be a uniform sample space and let E be any event. Then

19. Ex. Suppose that you reach into a box of 12 size AA batteries and you know that 4 of them are dead. Find the probability that a. in one draw you get a good battery. b. in two draws without replacement you get two good batteries.

20. Ex. Three balls are selected at random without replacement from the jar below. Find the probability that a. All 3 of the balls are green. b. One ball is red and two are black.

21. Ex. Refer to the jar of marbles below. Two marbles are drawn at random without replacement. Find the probability that no yellow are drawn.

22. Conditional Probability When the probability of an event is affected by the knowledge of other information relevant to the event. Notation: P(A|B) is read “the probability of event A given that event B has occurred.” Ex. You roll a fair die. Find the probability that you roll a 2 given that your roll is an even number. Knowing it is even restricts the sample space to {2, 4, 6}. So

23. Conditional Probability of an Event If A and B are events in an experiment and then the conditional probability that the event B will occur given that A has already occurred is Which can be written:

24. Ex. In a box of 20 size AA batteries, 10 are brand X and 10 are brand Y. You also know that 3 of the brand X batteries are dead, while 2 of the brand Y are dead. Find the probability that in a (random) draw a. you get a dead (D) brand X battery. b. you get brand Y given that you drew a dead (D) battery.

25. Independent Events If A and B are independent events, then Test for Independent Events Events A and B are independent events if and only if Note: this generalizes to more than two independent events.

26. Ex. If A die is rolled twice, show that rolling a 5 on the first roll and rolling a 4 on the second roll are independent events. (roll 1, roll2) V = 5 on first roll, R = 4 on second roll Therefore V and R are independent

27. Ex. A survey was conducted of workers exposed to equal amounts of asbestos. 35% of those surveyed were smokers. Of those who smoked, 16% developed lung cancer. Of those workers exposed to asbestos that were nonsmokers, 2% had developed lung cancer. 1. What is the probability a randomly selected worker is a smoker, and has lung cancer? Let S = the set that contains all smokers Let L = the set that contains lung cancer workers

28. 2. What is the probability that a randomly selected worker form this survey had developed lung cancer? 3. What is the probability a worker selected at random from the survey is a smoker, given he has lung cancer?

29. Bayes’ Theorem Let A1, A2, …, An be a partition of a sample space S and let E be an event of the experiment such that P(E) is not zero. Then the posteriori probability P(Ai|E) is given by Where Posteriori probability: probability is calculated after the outcomes of the experiment have occurred.

30. Ex 1. The accompanying tree diagram represents a two-stage experiment. Use the diagram to find P(B|D)? 1/3 D 2/3 DC A 1/4 1/2 D 1/2 B 1/2 DC 1/4 1/4 D C 3/4 DC

31. Ex 2. A store stocks light bulbs from three suppliers. Suppliers A, B, and C supply 10%, 20%, and 70% of the bulbs respectively. It has been determined that company A’s bulbs are 1% defective while company B’s are 3% defective and company C’s are 4% defective. If a bulb is selected at random and found to be defective, what is the probability that it came from supplier B? Let D = defective So about 0.17

32. Assignment for Chapter 7 • §7.1 1-6 7-14, 15-20, 22,30,42 • §7.2 1-8, 12, 16, 22, 34, 43 • §7.3 1-6, 7-12, 26, 34, 36, 40, 42 • §7.4 1-4 21, 24, 34, 35-40 • §7.5 1-4, 5-8, 12, 16,30, 38, 46 • §7.6 1-3, 4-6, 8, 10, 24, 36