Managing Drought: A Roadmap for Change in the United States

1. Managing Drought:A Roadmap for Change in the United States Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln U.S.A.

2. Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable Environments: A Roadmap for Change in the U.S. Report online at http://www.geosociety.org/

3. The Cycle of Disaster Management Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience. proactive reactive Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.

4. Components of Drought Risk Management Risk Hazard Vulnerability = x (natural event) (social factors) Meteorological Drought What factors are affecting vulnerability? Are there trends in exposure?

5. What is ‘drought?’ • A deficiency of precipitation from expected or normal that extends over a season or longer period of time and results in water supply that is insufficient to meet the needs of human activities and the environment. • Simply stated, it’s when ‘demand exceeds supply’ but . . . . .

6. 1930s 1950s 1987-present • Key observations: • Drought—normal part of climate • Average annual spatial extent = 15% • Peak spatial extent = 65% • Year-to-year variability • Recent pattern over two decades % Area Affected

7. Previous ‘Calls for Action’ • General Accounting Office • Western Governors’ Association • National Academy of Sciences • Great Lakes Commission • American Meteorological Society • Interstate Council on Water Policy • National Drought Policy Commission

8. National Drought Policy Commission • Report to Congress in 2000 in response to the National Drought Policy Act of 1998. • Recommended creating a National Drought Policy. • National Drought Preparedness Act: 2001, 2003, 2005.

9. Why the sense of urgency? • Multiple severe droughts since 1996 have had severe impacts and have raised concern about increasing vulnerability. • U.S. population is growing rapidly, especially in the water-short western states and the southeast. • Water demand is increasing dramatically, conflicts between water users are increasing.

10. 21% 28% 30% 20% 66% 26% 40% 20% 31% 23%

11. 2000 2001 2002 Improving drought management is a national issue! 2003 2004 2006

13. Why the sense of urgency? • Water supplies are fully or over-appropriated in many river basins. • All levels of government are poorly prepared for drought—reactive, crisis management approach. • Existing water laws and institutions are based on outmoded values and goals.

14. Drought plans exist at the • state, river basin, local and tribal levels of government. • Response oriented • Lack of coordination Bottom Line: No national drought plan or policy currently exists.

15. Why the sense of urgency? • Climate change is likely to increase the frequency, severity, and duration of drought. • Increasing temperatures, increased evaporation, increased heat stress/heat waves • Changes in precipitation amount, intensity, distribution, and form, increased variability • Reduced snowpack, stream flow, ground water recharge, lower reservoir levels

16. Temperature trends (°F per century) since 1920 coolerwarmer 3.6°F 2.7°F 1.8°F 0.9°F PNW warmed +1.5o F during the 20th century

17. Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997 Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49

18. Portland, Oregon • Portland’s water needs by 2040 will increase by 60 mgd, 40 mgd from regional growth; 20 mgd from climate change impacts.

19. Science and Policy Recommendations • Implement a national drought policy as called for by NDPC and drought mitigation planning at all levels of government. • Include the potential impacts of projected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change in drought risk mitigation planning.

20. Science and Policy Recommendations • Create a new ‘national water culture’ that promotes sustainable water management practices to meet long-term societal needs. • Broad educational initiative to foster partnerships between levels of government, universities, and public. • Increased public education on the need for long-term drought mitigation and water resources management.

21. Science and Policy Recommendations • Engage stakeholders within common hydrologic basins in water and drought management planning. • Foster place-based science with community stakeholder involvement as part of public education and outreach for natural resources decision makers, integrating local climate and water information and climate projections.

22. Science and Policy Recommendations • Maintain and enhance existing data networks and data sets, enhance timely delivery of data and information to decision makers and the public. • Fully fund and implement the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). • Foster development of sector-based decision support tools for natural resource managers, agricultural producers, and policy makers.

23. NIDIS passed by Congress in late 2006. Implementation Plan issued by NOAA in June 2007. Multi-agency and organizational effort. Drought Portal under development.

24. Science and Policy Recommendations • Encourage use of risk-based approaches for assessing multiple potential future climate and water management scenarios. • Support research that improves fundamental scientific understanding of drought, i.e., causes, predictability, impacts, mitigation actions, planning methodologies, and policy alternatives.

25. Science and Policy Recommendations • Value water at its full worth in the development of water resource management and drought mitigation plans. • Harmonize roles and responsibilities of cooperating institutions and reduce conflicts to achieve more effective decision making. • Fragmentation of responsibilities within and between levels of government constrains effective drought management.

26. It’s time for action! http://www.geosociety.org/ Visit the NDMC drought.unl.edu dwilhite2@unl.edu