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Hurricane Charley Aug. 2004

Hurricane Charley Aug. 2004. Rapid Intensification and Trough Interaction By: Andy Latto. Objectives. What is trough interaction? EFC Theory (Eddy Flux Convergence) Potential Vorticity – PV Model’s incorporating and forecasting trough interaction. Trough Interaction.

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Hurricane Charley Aug. 2004

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  1. Hurricane CharleyAug. 2004 Rapid Intensification and Trough Interaction By: Andy Latto

  2. Objectives • What is trough interaction? • EFC Theory (Eddy Flux Convergence) • Potential Vorticity – PV • Model’s incorporating and forecasting trough interaction.

  3. Trough Interaction • Dynamical and thermodynamic interaction between a hurricane vortex and upper level trough. • Trough needs to be close but not too close to storm for positive interaction (< 400 to 1000km) • Trough acts as a catalyst and storm responds positively or negatively.

  4. Trough Interaction Theories • EFC – • PV 2 – Added heating (omega) aloft forces a stronger thermal gradient below. • Enhanced outflow due to increase in upper level flow. • Potential Vorticity: According to QG Theory, added positive vorticity advection increasing with height causes low level ascent.

  5. Hurricane Charley August 2004

  6. Hurricane Charley • Rapid Intensification: -24 hPa in 6 hours

  7. Models Used GFDL AVN Global Model 100KM resolution Good for synoptic scale flows Bad for hurricane intensity • Uses Axi-symmetic vortex • Adds in asymmetric vortex • Triple-nested movable mesh • 1/12 degree resolution • Good for hurricane intensity • Problems with initialization

  8. GFDL Aug . 12th 00Z Initialization

  9. GFDL Aug 13th 06Z Initialization

  10. GFDL Aug 13th 18Z Initialization

  11. AVHRR imagery SST Aug 12th

  12. GFDL Aug 13th 00Z Initialization

  13. GFDL Aug 13th 00Z 18hr. forecast

  14. AVN Aug 13th 6 hour forecast

  15. GFDL Aug 13th 00Z 18hr forecast

  16. GFDL Aug 13th 18Z initialization

  17. AVN Aug 13th 00Z 18 hour forecast

  18. Results / Conclusion • EFC and PV during trough interaction can either strengthen or weaken a TC • Excess vertical shear caused by either PV of EFC is negative factor for intensification. (Balance is important) • Rapid intensification of TC’s is believed to need trough interaction, in part to occur. • Better data analysis, more offshore vertical data, and incorporation of data/equations into models necessary for accurate forecasting of trough interactions. • Lots theories at work here, and more work needs to be done to confirm these ideas.

  19. ANY • QUESTIONS???????????????????????????????????????????? • References are in typed paper

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