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The German RES-E Targets and their Long- run Impact on the Power System

The German RES-E Targets and their Long- run Impact on the Power System. Marco Nicolosi 34. IAEE International Conference Stockholm, June 21th, 2011. Agenda. Motivation and research question Methodology Results for different system components Conclusion.

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The German RES-E Targets and their Long- run Impact on the Power System

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  1. The German RES-E Targets andtheir Long-run Impact on the Power System Marco Nicolosi 34. IAEE International Conference Stockholm, June 21th, 2011

  2. Agenda • Motivation and research question • Methodology • Results for different system components • Conclusion

  3. Motivation IRES-E development in Germany Source: BMU, 2010.

  4. Motivation IIOne week in Germany Source: own illustration, data provided by EEX and EPEX Spot.

  5. Methodology ITHEA Model structure

  6. Methodology IIModel structure in Benders algorithm

  7. Variable costs Methodology IIIInput assumptions Considered regions German RES-E targets Source: NREAP 2010, IEA, 2010, EWI, 2010 and BMU 2010.

  8. Capacity development according to RES-E policy

  9. Development of generation mix according to RES-E policy

  10. Utilization of conventional generation capacity

  11. Profit per technology

  12. Consumer cost comparison

  13. Required wind support [EUR/MWh]

  14. Development of relative RES-E wholesale market value

  15. Absolute RES-E wholesale market value and power price development

  16. Price duration curves in 2010

  17. Development of international exchange

  18. The market value of interconnectors

  19. Conclusion • More peak load capacity • Decreasing utilization of generation capacity • Higher price volatility • Flexibility becomes more valuable • Storage • Interconnectors • Peak capacity

  20. Thank you for your attention !! Further questions? Please contact Marco Nicolosi m.nicolosi@ecofys.com

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