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Tuberculosis demand forecast 2014-2016

Photo: Riccardo Venturi. Tuberculosis demand forecast 2014-2016. Brussels, 10 April 2013 Dr Mario Raviglione Director, Stop TB Department World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Funding required.

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Tuberculosis demand forecast 2014-2016

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  1. Photo: Riccardo Venturi Tuberculosis demand forecast2014-2016 Brussels, 10 April 2013 Dr Mario Raviglione Director, Stop TB Department World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

  2. Funding required Largest investment needed for DOTSbut, largest increase needed for: rapid diagnostics/labs and MDR-TB 4.9 4.9 4.7 TB/HIV excl. ART US$ billions Rapid diagnostics, relatedlaboratorystrengthening 2.5 MDR-TB treatment DOTS Available funds (2011)

  3. Funding needs + gaps, by income group 37 low-income (LICs) Bigrelative gap (~60%) in LICs LMICsassumed to increasedomesticfunding. IF NOT muchbiggergap Gap 2014-16: $1.3 b US$ billions Total funding gap 2014-16 US$ 4.3 billion 27 upper-middle income (UMICs) 54 lower-middle income (LMICs) Gap 2014-16: $1.6 b Gap 2014-16: $1.4 b

  4. Funding gaps, US$ billions by region Rest of the World • Biggest gaps in Africa: 59% of total gap, 2014-16 19% • Gap in Asia could be bigger if domestic funding (in India, Indonesia, Philippines etc.) does not grow at projected level Africa Asia 22% 59% • Smaller gaps in Rest of World but critical to fill for MDR response and quality TB care, esp. in Europe Rest of World Africa Asia

  5. Impact: numberstreated Millions treated for TB Number treated for MDR-TB • 17 million people treated for TB, 2014-2016 • 450,000 treated for MDR-TB, 2014-2016

  6. Impact: livessaved Millions Millions Livessaved (TB) Livessaved (MDR-TB) 0.2 million Status Quo Status Quo Status quo implies: • 1.2 million liveslost • Failurein MDR-response • Failureto adoptrapid diagnostic tests

  7. Key messages • In the 118 countries eligible to apply for Global Fundfinancing, US$14.5 billionisrequired for TB care and control 2014‒2016 • There ispotentialto mobilize US$9.7 billion (67%)fromdomestic sources and US$0.6 billionfrom non-GF donorsources • Therefore, the anticipateddemand for Global Fundfinancingisatleast US$4.3 billion 2014–2016, or US$1.4 billion/year • MYTH TO DISPEL: «International fundingnot reallyneeded for TB». • In reality, gaps remainhugeespecially in low-income countries and Africa.

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