CEPAL - Escuela de Verano

1. CEPAL - Escuela de Verano Inflación internacional en la década de los 2000: Respuestas de política en los países en desarrollo Martín Abeles CEPAL, Oficina en Buenos Aires 31 de julio, 2013 - Santiago, Chile

2. Presentación • Antecedentes y motivación • Modelo heurístico • Introducción a los estudios de caso • Conclusiones y agenda

3. 1. Antecedentes y motivación

10. Precio minorista (IPC) de combustible y energía en Brasil

11. Chile: “Sistemade Protección ante Variaciones de los Precios de Combustibles” (SIPCO)

12. Enfoque convencional I • “The challenge for many emerging and some developing economies is to ensure that present boom-like conditions do not develop into overheating over the coming year. Inflation pressure is likely to build further as growing production comes up against capacity constraints, with large food and energy price increases, which weigh heavily in consumption baskets, motivating demands for higher wages. Real interest rates are still low and fiscal policies appreciably more accommodative than before the crisis. Appropriate action differs across economies... However, a tightening of macroeconomic policies is needed in many emerging economies…” • “Macroeconomic policies in the region should not fall behind the curve, given the risk of overheating. In countries where currencies are not under strong upward pressure on the back of strong capital flows and where monetary policy is still expansionary, policy rates should move faster toward more neutral levels. However, much of the focus should be on fiscal policies, particularly given the historical tendency throughout the region to adopt procyclical policies …” • "Exchange rates should be allowed to continue to act as shock absorbers in the face of pressure stemming from economic conditions in the region that have improved more than those in more advanced economies, primarily because of terms-of-trade gains from high commodity export prices.” IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2011

13. Enfoque convencional II • “Soaring commodity prices have […] raised concerns about a significant increase in underlying inflation via second-round effects. There are clear signs of mounting wage pressures in some major emerging market economies... Dwindling economic slack and persistent inflation in these countries have been pushing up wage demands.” • “Against this backdrop, central banks must remain highly alert to a buildup of inflationary pressures. They should do so even if the evidence may seem at odds with conventional estimates of domestic economic slack and domestic wage developments. Vigilance and a timely tightening of monetary policy in both emerging market and advanced economies will be needed to maintain well anchored inflation expectations, preserve a low-inflation environment globally and reinforce central banks’ inflation fighting credibility.” • “Monetary policy tightening in emerging market economies has been limited by concerns about reinforcing capital inflows and exchange rate appreciation. But alternative policy measures have been adopted to rein in the build-up of financial imbalances. These include macroprudential measures (such as caps on loan-to-value and debt service-to-income ratios), higher reserve requirements and in some cases capital controls (such as taxes on short-term capital inflows). These measures, however, cannot substitute for a tightening of monetary policy and greater exchange rate flexibility.” BIS, Annual Report 2010/11, June 2011

14. 2. Modelo heurístico

15. The model: Structural form

16. The model: Structural form (cont.) where, πt is headline inflation πttis the inflation rate of tradable goods πtntthe inflation rate of non-tradable goods where, πtw* is the international inflation rate of wage-goods πtop*is the international inflation rate of other (“non-edible”) primary goods πtm* is the international inflation rate of manufactures

17. The model: Structural form (cont.) where, πtw is the domestic inflation rate of wage-goods πtopis the domestic inflation rate of other primary goods πtmis the domestic inflation rate of manufactures πtt is the domestic inflation rate of tradable goods nert is the variation in the nominal exchange rate (domestic currency per unit of foreign currency) and λi are the corresponding “decoupling coefficients” (with P i= Pi*NER*Λ; λ = ΔΛ/Λ)

18. The model: Structural form (cont.) where, πtunt is the domestic inflation rate of unregulated non-tradables πtrntis the domestic inflation rate of regulated non-tradables πtntis the domestic inflation rate of non-tradable goods and services wtuntis the nominal wage variation in the unregulated non-tradable sector ϕunt is the labor productivity growth in the unregulated non-tradable sector andτis unit profit margins in the unregulated non-tradable sector (Note that d + e + f + g = 1)

19. The model: Structural form (cont.) where, wtiis the nominal wage variation in the ith sector ε the “inertial inflation” coefficient ϕl labor productivity growth in the “leading” sector (w or op) κa distributional coefficient (degree to which productivity growth in the “leading” sector is passed on to workers) μtm the variation in the mark-up rate over unit labor costs in the manufacturing sector j the weight of labor costs in the gross value of manufacturing production ϕilabor productivity growth in the ith sector ϕtot the average of labor productivity growth in five sectors (weighted by consumption weights) andbttotthe variation in the overall profit share

20. The baseline closure (no “policy action”: nert = λt = 0) • Inflation in the Baseline closure • Variation in manufacturing’s mark-up rate in the Baseline closure • Variation in profit share in the Baseline closure

21. Four (policy-related) variations/closures • Case 1: XR appreciation (proxy inflation targeting regimes) Results: πtC1 < πtBASE μtm,C1< μtm,BASE bttot,C1 < or = bttot,BASE

22. Four (policy-related) variations/closures (cont.) • Case 2: Selective “decoupling” (variation in import tariffs, export duties, domestic taxes, subsidies, etc.) Results: πtC1 < πtC2 < πtBASE; μtm,C2 > μtBASE> μtm,C1 < or = bttot,BASE bttot,C2 indeterminate vis-à-vis bttot,C1

23. Four (policy-related) variations/closures (cont.) • Case 3:Real Exchange-rate targeting Results: πtC3 > πtBASE> πtC2 > πtC1 (μtm,C3 = 0) > μtm,C2 > μtBASE> μtm,C1 > or = btC1 btC3 > btBASE > or = btC2

24. Four (policy-related) variations/closures • Case 4:Combines Cases 2 and 3 Results: πtC1< πtC4 < πtC3 , but indeterminate vis-à-vis πtBASE andπtC2 (μtm,C4 = μtm,C3 = 0) > μtm,C2 > μtBASE> μtm,C1 bttot,C1< bttot,C4< bttot,C3 , but indeterminate vis-à-vis bttot,BASE andbttot,C2

26. 3. Introducción a los estudios de caso

27. Tipología de respuestas al alza de los precios internacionales de alimentos Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de Demeke y otros, 2008, Jones y Kwiecinski, 2010

28. Respuestas nacionales al alza de precios internacionales de alimentos por región(Numero y porcentajes de países de cada región que aplican cada instrumento) Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de políticas alimentarias FAO-GIEWS (2008), Jones y otros (2010), Bianchi y otros (2009). a Nivel de significación 0,05 del test t de comparaciones de columnas a partir de pruebas bilaterales que asumen varianzas iguales.

29. Tipología de países según posición en el balance comercial alimentario y evolución términos de intercambio Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de USDA y UNCTAD

30. Tipología de países según posición en el balance alimentario de los cuatro principales granos respecto al consumo y exportaciones de minerales, petróleo y energía sobre el total exportado Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de USDA y UNCTAD

31. Permeabilidad a la presión “apreciatoria”: Taxonomía de respuestas nacionales Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de estimaciones del BCRA

32. Clusters de políticas frente al alza de precios(Método de Ward – Medida de Jaccard y de Dice) Fuente: CEPAL

33. EVOLUCIÓN DE LA INFLACIÓN (1)(En porcentajes, variación interanual)

34. Transmisión de los precios internacionales a los mercados internosPeríodo 2006/08 (variaciones de promedios trimestrales, en porcentajes)(a)

35. 4. Conclusiones y agenda

36. Conclusiones y agenda • El modelo heurístico sugiere: • La creciente preocupación por la tendencia a la apreciación cambiaria asociada a las políticas de estabilización en la región en años recientes, debería traer aparejado un esfuerzo más consistente de diseño de instrumentos de intervención específica; • Ese esfuerzo analítico implica re-discutir las causas de la inflación, reconsiderando el papel de los costos y las pujas de ingresos. • El análisis de los casos sugiere: • Los instrumentos existen y tiene aplicación práctica, pero son virtualmente omitidos del análisis por los estudios macroeconómicos convencionales. • No existe una respuesta única ni óptima: se presentan “configuraciones” de políticas, en buena medida asociada a factores estructurales • Necesidad de integrar el análisis de los efectos de este tipo de instrumentos (no convencionales para el análisis macroeconómico) más sistemáticamente en el campo “heterodoxo”.

37. Gracias!

38. Back up

39. Precios internacionales de commodities e inflación: Canales de transmisión The Caribbean South America ↑P* ↓TOT ↑ TOT ↑ πHeadline ↑πNon-core ↓ NER ↑ W ↓ RER ↑ PNon-tradables ↓ i* ↓(G – T) ↑ i ↓ CA ↑ πCore

40. Las cuatro soluciones para la variableπt

41. Sliding export tariffs on food staples: The cases of Powder milk and corn in Argentina Export Parity Price = FOB Price (1 – Export Tariff)

42. Sliding import tariffs on food staples: The case of Sugar in Perú Import Parity Price = FOB Price (1 + Import Tariff)

46. Síntesis de los Estudios de Caso

47. ESTRUCTURA DEL COSTO FISCAL POR GRANDES OBJETIVOS DE POLÍTICA (1) (en porcentajes sobre el total)