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The Questions. Who bears the burden of taxes?Who benefits from government spending?What are the net effects?Who would gain/lose under different possible tax reform packages, and by how much?. May 11, 2011. JH: Tax
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1. Tax Incidence in Thailand Jonathan Haughton
Suffolk University, Boston
Jonathan.haughton@suffolk.edu
For the World Bank.
May 11, 2011
2. The Questions Who bears the burden of taxes?
Who benefits from government spending?
What are the net effects?
Who would gain/lose under different possible tax reform packages, and by how much? May 11, 2011 JH: Tax & Expenditure Incidence in Peru Page 2
3. Example 1: Peru: Tax Revenue Central government tax revenue
11.6% of GDP in 2004
Buoyant since 2002
71% of revenue from indirect tax
Vat: 19% rate; but yields just 4.9% of GDP
Income tax: 3.4% of GDP May 11, 2011 JH: Tax & Expenditure Incidence in Peru Page 3
4. Example 2: VietnamCentral Government Revenue
5. Vietnam: Main taxes (% of GDP)
6. Vietnam: Noteworthy trends Revenue/GDP: 20% to 2000, now 25%
VAT: 7% of GDP (at 10% rate!)
Trade: from 4% to 2% of GDP, despite explosion of imports
All income tax: Peaked at 10% GDP in 2006, but dependent on SOE sector
NB: PIT raises 2% of revenue; surprisingly, not rising
7. Thailand
8. Measuring Incidence (1) Step 1. Make assumptions about incidence
Statutory incidence ? Effective incidence
See Table May 11, 2011 JH: Tax & Expenditure Incidence in Peru Page 8
9. Incidence assumptions VAT: on consumers
Excises: on consumers
PIT: on earners
Business profits: on earners
Other taxes:
Property transfer; local fees and contributions: on payers.
In this study, CIT, trade taxes, natural resource taxes, not included. Incidence covers half of revenue.
10. Partial equilibrium incidence