:-)

1. :-) • Yes, upon popular demand: Next quiz: Friday January 14 (chapters 9 and 10) • After that: Wednesday January 19 (12 to 14) – possibly or on final (more likely) • Make up classes – see you tomorrow  • Thursday January 13 – 12.45 to 1.45 pm (Khoury 309) • Thursday January 20 – 12.15 – 2.00 pm (film starts at 12.30) – Hariri Auditorium. Film: The End of the Line (2009)

2. Homework to all – on the web • (1) How do I personally contribute to climate change? (examine your lifestyle — from your diet to your consumption to your home). Note: To answer this question, you should examine your ‘footprint.’ What is an ecological footprint. As explained by the Happy Planet Index, “[t]he ecological footprint of an individual is a measure of the amount of land required to provide for all their resource requirements plus the amount of vegetated land required to sequester (absorb) all their CO2 emissions and the CO2 emissions embodied in the products they consume. This figure is expressed in units of ‘global hectares’. The advantage of this approach is that it is possible to estimate the total amount of productive hectares available on the planet. Dividing this by the world’s total population, we can calculate a global per capita figure on the basis that everyone is entitled to the same amount of the planet’s natural resources.” • So, to answer question (1), go to one  The Global Footprint Network website (http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/), and read the information they have, and then you can go to one of the following sites:  The Ecological Footprint Quiz (here), or The Global Footprint Network (and assume we live in Turkey), or go to the website of the World Wildlife Fund and spend 5 minutes calculating the information (here) – but keep in mind that that calculation is designed for folks living in the UK so some of the questions won’t apply to you. There are other sites, of course. The links I provided are a selection of those sites.  One other avenue you may use is an excel sheet to calculate your footprint with more accuracy and detail. Go here: http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=ecological+footprint+xls&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8 • (2) What will I actually change in my behavior? • (3) Assuming I have ultimate power in the world, what new world would I create? What is my vision for a healthier world — healthier from an environmental perspective, recognizing that the environment cannot be separated from the economy and from our philosophies.

3. Homework • To all: • “Me and Climate Change” • Due January 17 • To those of you who gave Homework 15 to 20% • Summarize one peer-reviewed article from the scientific literature on the topic of ‘impact of climate change on…?’ The article must be NO older than 2007. Include the article with your summary. • Due January 21 • John (15%); Mustafa (20%); Omar (15%); Joelle (15%)

4. Chapter 10 - continued

5. Gradients of species richness • Habitat area and remoteness: Island biogeography • Latitudinal gradients • Gradients with altitude and depth • Gradients during community succession

6. Island biogeography • Number of species on islands decreases as island area decreases. Species-area relationship • What is an island? • Islands of land in a sea of water • Lakes - Islands in a sea of land • Mountaintops – high altitude islands in a low altitude ocean • Gaps in a forest canopy – island in a sea of trees • Islands of particular geological types, soil types, or vegetation types

7. Island biogeography • Species-area relationships: one of the most consistent of all ecological patterns • Is the impoverishment of species on islands more than would be expected in comparably small areas of mainland? • Why do larger areas contain more species? • Encompass more different types of habitat – not enough of an explanation • Island size and isolation: number of species on an island determined by a balance between immigration and extinction; this balance is dynamic; and extinction rates may vary with island size and isolation

8. Island biogeography • The number of species on an island should eventually become roughly constant through time • This should be a result of continual turnover of species, with some becoming extinct and others immigrating • Large islands should support more species than small islands • Species number should decline with the increasing remoteness of an island - MacArthur and Wilson’s theory’s predictions

9. Latitudinal gradients • Increase in species richness from the poles to the tropics • Why? • No clear explanation. • Latitudinal gradient intertwines components previously discussed…

10. Gradients with altitude and depth • Decrease in species richness with altitude – akin to that observed with latitude - -in terrestrial environments • Other studies: increase with altitude; other studies: hump-shaped patterns • Productivity and temperature? Productivity and growing season? Stress with extremes? • In aquatic environments: change in species richness with depth strongly similar to terrestrial gradient with altitude

11. Skip – patterns in taxon richness in the fossil record

12. Summary • Richness and diversity • Productivity and resource diversity • Predation intensity • Spatial heterogeneity • Environmental harshness • Climatic variation • Disturbance • Environmental age • Island biogeography • Gradients in species richness

13. Sustainability - Extra readings for this chapter

14. sustainability • What is sustainability? • In the foreseeable future? What about uncertainties? • Will there always be a technological fix? • Jevons Paradox • Sustainability: encompasses economic and social and ecological conditions • We are not separate from nature; we are a part of nature

15. Human population • What is the human population problem? • What do we need to know to answer the question: how many people can the Earth support?

16. Human population • Growth to present: more than exponential • If exponential growth, rate of increase per individual is constant. Population as a whole grows at an accelerating rate because the pop growth rate is a product of the individual rate (constant) and the accelerating number of individuals • Remember intraspecific competition: rate of increase per population decreases as population size increases! • Human pop: individual rate of increase has been increasing! More than exponential growth – unsustainable sooner

19. Human population • Present size of global human population is unsustainably high. ~ 6.867,040,600 (as of 11.37 am today) • Not the size but the distribution over the Earth that is unsustainable. Urbanized pop: ~ 50% (1800: 3%; 1950: 29%; 2000: 47%) • Rate of growth rate is unsustainable. Before agricultural revolution of the 18th century, human pop doubled every 1000 years. Now: 39 years • Not the size but age distribution • Not the size but uneven distribution of resources.

20. A note on that 18th agricultural revolution • Justus von Liebig, ‘Organic Chemistry in its Application to Agriculture and Physiology,’ 1862 edition • ‘high farming’ of British agriculture • Transportation over long distances of food and fiber from the country to the city – with no provision for the recirculation of social nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, which ended up contributing to urban waste and pollution in the form of human and animal wastes [Foster, Ecological Revolution, 2009] • Imperial policy of robbing the soil resources

21. Industrial, imperial agriculture • Liebig… • “Great Britain deprives all countries of the conditions of their fertility. It has raked up the battlefields of Leipsic, Waterloo and the Crimea; it has consumed the bones of many generations accumulated in the catacombs of Sicily; and now annually destroys the food for a future generation of three million and a half of people. Like a vampire it hangs on the breast of Europe, and even the world, sucking it lifeblood without any real necessity or permanent gain for itself.” • Industrialized capitalist agriculture maintained by importing guano (bird droppings) from Peru and bones from Europe • Guano imports increased from 1,700 tons in 1841 to 220,000 tons only 6 years later! • Law of restitution – main principle of rational agriculture - forgotten

22. Predicting the future • Projection vs prediction • Projection – an estimate; a forecast - based on the status of today, assuming that things will go on in the future as they have in the past • Prediction – requires an understanding of what has happened in the past and how the present is different from the past • Remember: global pop = smaller populations + smaller populations etc • Demographic transitions • Birth and death rate: high; birth rate only slightly > death. So? • Death rate declines; birth rate stays high. So? • Birth rate also declines; = or < death rate. So? • Why these changes?

23. This (past) unique decade (2000-2010) • Old > young • Urban > rural • Women: fewer children; just enough to replace themselves and the father in the next generation • Why?

24. Population growth in the Arab world

25. Actual and projected population growth of the Arab region (millions) Source: UN-ESCWA 2001

26. Decrease in fertility rates Source: UNFPA data

27. Population growth (actual and projected) (millions) Source: UN Population Division. 2002 Revision. World Population Prospects

28. Rural to Urban migration (1961-2003) Source: World Bank data

29. Rural to Urban migration (1961, 1980, 2003) Source: World Bank data

30. Rural to Urban Migration (1961, 1980, 2003)

31. Population density(inhabitant per km2) (2006)

32. Ecological Footprint (gha/person) Source: WWF 2006

33. 2 future inevitabilities • If b = d, then is the population problem solved? • 1 – age structure • Either: few young to take care of many old • Or: many young still reproducing • 2 – pop growth has its own momentum. Even with b = d, many years before a stable age structure were established • World’s population is expected to grow from 6.3 billion in 2000 to 8.9 billion in 2050

34. Global carrying capacity? • Given that no population can grow forever [why?] • Finite space. Finite resources. • Variation in the estimates since 1970: from 1 billion to 1,000 billion! • De Wit (1976): how many people can live on Earth if photosynthesis is the limiting process? -> 1,000 billion. Assumed that water and minerals are not limiting! And assumed a vegetarian (vegan?), minimalistic lifestyle • Hulett (1970): if we all live like the US, including food, renewable and non-renewable resources,  1 billion • Kates (1988): assumed vegetarian diet – 5.9 billion; 15% animal products caloric intake: 3.9 billion; 25% - 2.9 billion

35. 9.5 billion?

36. Have we already passed it? • Wackernagel (2002): • 1961: people were using 70% of the biosphere’s capacity • 1999: people were using 120% • Thus: global carrying capacity exceeded when our population turned 6 billion Read the living planet (must read it for the final exam) Gandhi: there is enough for people’s need, but not enough for people’s greed. We need the concept of “enough.’

37. “Harvesting” living resources from the wild • Fisheries • Same logic to be discussed applies to all harvesting of any natural resource – from fish to trees to soil nutrients • Re-read the excerpt from ‘eating animals’ regarding fish

38. fisheries • Overexploitation • Figure 12.5

39. Global marine fish harvesting

40. fisheries • Overexploitation • Integrate all that we have learned about populations (remember chapter 5) • Populations in the absence of exploitation can be expected to settle around their carrying capacity; exploitation will reduce their numbers • Exploitation, by reducing the intensity of competition, increases the net number of recruits to the population per unit time (Figure 12.6)

41. Pop size increases from right to left Increasing rates of exploitation take pop from right to left

42. MSY: max sustainable yield • MSY: largest harvest (# of individuals killed) that can be removed from the pop regularly and indefinitely. • Problems… • Treat pop as number of similar individuals…ignores size, age class, and differential rates of growth, survival and reproduction • Treats environment as unvarying • Practice: impossible to obtain a reliable estimate. Why? • Does not consider other criterions for management. Such as?

43. MSY – thru fixed quotas/efforts Fixed quota or fixed effort • Fixed quota: same amount removed every year. Problem? • Frequently used. • Fixed effort: constant harvesting effort (number of ‘trawler-days’; number of ‘gun-days’ • Beyond MSYs: Know the Peruvian anchovy example.

44. now 2/3 of the world’s major fish stocks are currently being fished at or above capacity In the past 50 years, more than 90% of large predatory fish have been eliminated. Source: Worldwatch, Vital Signs 2005, www.worldwatch.org -- re-read excerpt from ‘eating animals’

45. Read the article

46. Farming of monocultures • What is a monoculture? • “Only monoculture can maximize the rate of food production. This is because it allows the farmer to control and optimize with high precision the density of the populations, the quantity and quality of their resources and often even the physical condition of temperature and humidity.” • True? • details…details

47. monocultures • (1) Disease? • (2) Waste? • (3) Climate Change? Resilience? • (4) Input from where? [Remember England] • (5) Centralization? Pressure? [Wikileaks] • (6) Where is the food going actually?