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23.8.2007

TOLERATE research meeting Progress by FMI: results & planned actions Kirsti Jylhä. Thanks to material: Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Ari Venäläinen, Seppo Saku, Tiina Kilpeläinen, Teija Seitola. 23.8.2007. Objective:.

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23.8.2007

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  1. TOLERATE research meeting Progress by FMI: results & planned actions Kirsti Jylhä Thanks to material:Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Ari Venäläinen, Seppo Saku,Tiina Kilpeläinen, Teija Seitola 23.8.2007

  2. Objective: The production of key climate indicators - monthly average precipitation and temperatures - extremes of various typical return periods for - recent past/current climate (RPCC) - enhanced (future) climate (FC)

  3. Deliverables from FMI to SYKE by August 2007 • A draft for the report by Venäläinen et al. (2007): Sään ääri-ilmiöistä Suomessa. (Aspects about climate extremes in Finland) Raportteja 2007: x, Ilmatieteen laitos. (about 75 pages, including Appendices) • Two data files for changes in monthly mean temperature and precipitation: • - 2.5 ° x 2.5° grid covering Finland and the surroundings • Both multi-model mean changes based on 19 global climate models • and projected changes separately from a subset of the models (7 GCMs) • A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios • future periods 2020-49 and 2070-99, control period 1971-2000 Work in progress: changes in precipitation amounts with return periods of 10 and 100 years

  4. Recent past/current climate (RPCC) • 12 weather stations in Finland • Daily data from ~ 40 – 60 years Peaks-over-threshold(POT) method (Generalized Pareto distribution)using the eXtremes Toolkit (developed in NCAR) Ref. Venäläinen et al. (2007)

  5. max75th percentilemedian25th percentilemin RPCC 12 stations Precipitation (mm) Precipitation (mm) Return period (years) Returnperiod (years) Return level estimates for precipitation amounts:rather large inter-stationdifferences Precipitation (mm) • random variability • the relatively short periods of data (in digital form) • spatial variation of climate Return period (years) Ref. Venäläinen et al. (2007)

  6. max75th percentilemedian25th percentilemin RPCC Return level estimates for duration of spells with only a small amount of precipitation* 12 stations *Total accumulated rain amountduring the time periodremains below a fixed threshold (10, 50, 100 or 200 mm) Ref. Venäläinen et al. (2007)

  7. Emission scenario (Gt C/vuosi) Future climate FC Projected warming in Finland Annual mean temperature 1971-2000 => 2020-2049 Scenario Temperature rise (ºC) A1FI 2.3 (1.2 – 3.3) A2 2.0 (1.1 – 2.9) A1B 2.1 (1.1 – 3.1) A1T 2.5 (1.4 – 3.7) B2 2.2 (1.2 – 3.2) B1 1.9 (0.9 – 2.9) Change in temperature (ºC) Multi-model means and 5-95% rangesof the model resultsbased on a Gaussian fit Based on 19 GCMs,employed in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report Ref: K. Ruosteenoja

  8. Future climate FC Projected increases in precipitation in Finland Annual mean precipitation amount 1971-2000 2020-2049 Scenario Response (%) A1FI 8 (3 – 13) A2 6 (2 – 11) A1B 7 (2 – 12) A1T 8 (3 –14) B2 7 (2 – 12) B1 7 (2 – 11) Change in precipitation (%) A measure of natural variability Ref: K. Ruosteenoja

  9. Projected changes in monthly mean temperature (°C) in Finland by 2020-49* Emission scenario (Gt C/vuosi) Change in temperature (ºC) • Larger changes in winter than in summer • Little differences between the various emission scenarios J F M A M J J A S O N D *relative to 1971-2000

  10. One-day precipitation amount (mm) with a return period of 10 and 100 years on the basis observations and climate model simulations (an example, Turku) Return level (mm) Regional climate model experiments

  11. Two-weeks precipitation amount (mm) with a return period of 10 and 100 years on the basis observations and climate model simulations (an example, Turku) Return level (mm) Return level (mm) Regional climate model experiments

  12. One-month precipitation amount (mm) with a return period of 10 and 100 years on the basis observations and climate model simulations (an example, Turku) Return level (mm) Regional climate model experiments

  13. 90th percentile of the monthly mean daily maximum temperature in summers 1961-1990 in a regional climate model experiment driven by ERA40* *ERA40= a global atmospheric analysis of conventional and satellite observations in 1957-2002

  14. Projected changes (%) in heavy precipitation vs. mean precipitation in winter and summer 5-95% ranges among the 19 AR4-GCMs

  15. Deliverables from FMI to SYKE by August 2007 • A draft for the report by Venäläinen et al. (2007): Sään ääri-ilmiöistä Suomessa. (Aspects about climate extremes in Finland) Raportteja 2007: x, Ilmatieteen laitos. (about 75 pages, including Appendices) • Two data files for changes in monthly mean temperature and precipitation: • - 2.5 ° x 2.5° grid covering Finland and the surroundings • Both multi-model mean changes based on 19 global climate models • and projected changes separately from a subset of the models (7 GCMs) • A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios • future periods 2020-49 and 2070-99, control period 1971-2000 Work in progress: changes in precipitation amounts with return periods of 10 and 100 years

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