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An Adaptive Management Model for the Red River Basin of the North

An Adaptive Management Model for the Red River Basin of the North. Adaptive Management. Elements of Adaptive Management. Workshop Sequence. Bounding the Problem. Actions Human activities and inputs we are interested in manipulating – the “levers” Indicators

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An Adaptive Management Model for the Red River Basin of the North

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  1. An Adaptive ManagementModel for the Red River Basin of the North

  2. Adaptive Management

  3. Elements of Adaptive Management

  4. Workshop Sequence

  5. Bounding the Problem • Actions Human activities and inputs we are interested in manipulating – the “levers” • Indicators Critical system outputs that we will use to assess the effects of actions • Driving Variables Factors external to system such as weather, commodity prices • Space Extent and resolution • Time Extent and resolution

  6. Adaptive Management Models • Dynamic simulation models (not optimizations) • Intended to understand system dynamics not generate detailed predictions. • Interdisciplinary – look at interactions between hydrology, agriculture, crop diseases etc. • Policy relevant • “Aids to thinking” - Explore alternative hypotheses and scenarios • What if …Climate change, policy change, etc.

  7. The Red River Basin of the North

  8. Study area (Ecoregions)

  9. Red River Basin (~125,000 km2)

  10. THEN NOW

  11. Digital Elevation Model data

  12. Population estimates for the Red River Basin on a 1 km2 grid

  13. 1997 Red River Flooding

  14. 1997 Flooding at Grand Forks

  15. Flood and Fire Damage at Grand Forks

  16. St Vincent in 1997 Flood

  17. Commodity Price Trends

  18. North Dakota Census Data

  19. Red River Basin Model

  20. Broad Project Objectives • To distill from the multiplicity of causal factors a simple systems model that can be used to explore the natural, economic and social dynamics observed in the Red River Basin. • To use the model to explore alternative policies with stakeholders and decision makers

  21. Issues to explore with model • Land use interactions with hydrology. • Impacts of policies, incentive programs etc. • Crop diseases in response to cropping patterns. • Feasibility of alternate crops and crop rotations. • Water quality issues. • Impacts of climate change. • Land use interactions with wildlife.

  22. Detailed Objectives of first Phase • Explore initial sub models for: • Farm economics • Crop diseases • Crop production • Driving weather/climate variables • Hydrology routine to generate inputs to other models • Etc … • Framework for linking sub-models at the basin level. • Initial compilation of datasets at the basin level. • Plan for continued of model development and analysis.

  23. Conceptual Model

  24. Draft (!) Balaton Conceptual Model

  25. Styles of Modelling

  26. Current Model Status

  27. Hydrologic Units

  28. STATSGO and CANSIS Soils data

  29. Administrative areas (counties, rural municipalities)

  30. USGS Land Use/Land Cover System Legend (Modified Level 2) Value Code Class Name 1 100 Urban and Built-Up Land 2 211 Dryland Cropland and Pasture 3 212 Irrigated Cropland and Pasture 4 213 Mixed Dryland/Irrigated Cropland and Pasture 5 280 Cropland/Grassland Mosaic 6 290 Cropland/Woodland Mosaic 7 311 Grassland 8 321 Shrubland 9 330 Mixed Shrubland/Grassland 10 332 Savanna 11 411 Deciduous Broadleaf Forest 12 412 Deciduous Needleleaf Forest 13 421 Evergreen Broadleaf Forest 14 422 Evergreen Needleleaf Forest 15 430 Mixed Forest 16 500 Water Bodies 17 620 Herbaceous Wetland 18 610 Wooded Wetland 19 770 Barren or Sparsely Vegetated 20 820 Herbaceous Tundra 21 810 Wooded Tundra 22 850 Mixed Tundra 23 830 Bare Ground Tundra 24 900 Snow or Ice 100 NO DATA Land Cover for the Red River Basin

  31. Ecoregions relevant to the Red River Basin

  32. Locations of centers of VEMAP weather cells

  33. Spatial Representation

  34. Nested Time Steps

  35. Implementation Model developed for Windows PC Visual Basic Microsoft Access Uses ArcView 3.2 at present for mapping Uses Excel for chart and tabular output

  36. Running the Model Various run time options Weather data options Can vary scope of model Critical to manage indicators …

  37. Viewing outputs Multiple saved scenarios Indicators at various time steps and spatial resolutions View maps at a time View charts/tables for one or more spatial units or indicators

  38. Hydrology Sub-model • Initial model implemented • Penman Monteith Equation • Some model analysis completed • Model has not yet been refined based on observations

  39. Example Model Output

  40. Water contributed to flow from different hydrologic units in June

  41. Tension soil water in May

  42. Tension soil water available in August

  43. Flow at Fargo

  44. 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks

  45. 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average)

  46. 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average)

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