Going Green: Carbon reduction through nature CaRe-Lands Cluster event June, 25th 2014

1. Going Green: Carbon reduction through nature CaRe-Lands Cluster event June, 25th 2014

2. Will Day

3. Going Green: Carbon reduction through nature Will Day GrandhotelterDuin June 2014

5. The Biosphere Human Society The Economy

6. August 20th

8. The great acceleration • Northern Hemisphere average surface temperature • Population • GDP • Foreign investment • 1750 • Species extinctions • 1950 • Motor vehicles • 1850 • New Scientist 2008 from Steffen et al 2004

9. With a population of 8.3 billion people by 2030,we’ll need… 50%more energy 40%more water 35%more food • Source: OECD; Dan Hammer, Center for Global Development

10. The Food-Water-Energy Nexus Land Energy Food Water

11. Scarce resources

13. Worsening per capita water availability

15. To meet the increasing demand froma growing population, we will needto produce more food in the next40 years than has been produced inthe previous 8,000 years. Jason Clay, Senior Vice President WWF

16. There is less land than you think • Land area of all countries, in billions of acres • 37.1 Total • 3.5 • Arable land • Source: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin

17. Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

18. Food production is very energy intensive • + • + • Fossil Energy we put in… Agricultural Production Transportation Processing Industry Packaging Material • Food Energy we get out! Food Retail Commercial Food Service • Household Storage & Preparation • Food Energy Available • Source: University of Michigan study by Hellar and Keoleian done in 2000 Food Energy Available

20. Expected growth in biofuel demand

21. 000,000?No • 7,200,000,000?

22. Country population: past, present, future • This interactive visualisation depicts dramatic population changes, based on data released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affiars/Population Division for 1950 – 2010 and a projection for 2100.

27. Stern Review

30. Trust in institutions to operate in society’s best interest TRUT

32. What can we expect? • Changing rainfall and weather patterns • Sea level rise • Loss of habitat • Loss of biodiversity • Increasing extreme weather • Migration

33. What is the impact? • Growing global demand for food production • Requirement for renewable energy • Shorter supply chains • Africa as the world’s bread basket? • Massive urban growth

34. It’s not as simple as we might think • Crops bad, trees good? Need to understand the science • Cities bad, countryside good? – can’t be competition – Costa Rica • Land use change on it’s own insufficient - ‘Reducing emissions in the land use sector cannot compensate for a lack of reduction in industrial emissions.’

35. Who does what best? Government – Environment Minister, Regulators, Planning authorities, Protected areas Market – Commercial agriculture, Rural economies. Green growth NGOs/civil society – lobby, advocate, consume, vote, educate

36. Technology?

37. Why Sustainable Development? • Not ‘sustained…’ • Should be ‘common sense’ • Joined up – economics, politics, environment, social • Chinese Vice-Minister – the most important • conversation • Helps think beyond short term commercial and • political timetables • Politically inconvenient

38. Imperatives….. • Decarbonise the global economy – vital and urgent • Recognise the true value of nature and of the services • we derive from it – health, water, food, fibre, fuel • Protect our threatened biodiversity • Appreciate the need for successful rural economies • Make better informed planning decisions • Help legislators and citizens understand why • land use, and the longer term, matters • Work together

39. Thank you Dank u william.day@phonecoop.coop