Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Adaption – Lessons from the Bay Area

1. Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Adaption – Lessons from the Bay Area Marc A. Zeppetello, Esq. Chief Counsel San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission

2. SF Bay Plan Policies Climate Change Policy 2: • For large shoreline projects, prepare risk assessment (RA) based on estimated 100-year flood elevation that takes into account best estimates of future sea level rise (SLR) and current and planned flood protection. • RA should identify all types of potential flooding, degrees of uncertainty, consequences of defense failure, and risks to habitat from proposed flood protection devices.

3. Best Estimates of SLR Commission consults “State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance Document” issued in March 2013 by the Ocean Protection Council • By mid-century: 4.5” to 24” SLR (mean 16”) • By end-of-century: 16” to 66” SLR (mean 36”)

4. SF Bay Plan Policies Climate Change Policy 3: • Within areas that RA determines are vulnerable to future shoreline flooding, projects should be designed to be resilient to a mid-century SLR. • If project will remain in place longer than mid-century, an adaptive management plan should be developed to address long-term impacts that will arise based on the RA using best available scientific projections for SLR at end of century.

5. SF Bay Plan Policies Public Access Policy 5: • Public access should be sited, designed, managed, and maintained to avoid significant adverse impacts from SLR and shoreline flooding. Public Access Policy 6: • Public access should either be required to remain viable in the event of future SLR or flooding, or equivalent access consistent with the project should be provided nearby.

6. Oracle School, Redwood CityBCDC Permit 1982.026.08 (June 20, 2016)

7. Oracle School, Redwood CityBCDC Permit 1982.026.08 (June 20, 2016) Special Condition: Adaption to Future Flooding • Inform BCDC staff of flooding of required public access immediately following each occurrence. • When public access becomes regularly inundated with flood waters due to storms or SLR, develop and implement strategies to be approved by Commission to protect public access areas and improvements from flooding and/or SLR.

8. Oracle School, Redwood CityBCDC Permit 1982.026.08 (June 20, 2016) • Regularly inundated: 1 day/month for 3 consecutive months in any 2 years within a 5-year period. • If strategies result in significant visual or physical impact at public access areas, permittees will coordinate with BCDC staff to develop and implement an alternative strategy consistent with the purpose of the public access areas and obtain any necessary Commission authorization.

9. Treasure Island

10. Treasure Island BCDC Permit 2016.005.00 (Sept. 19, 2016) Sea Level Rise Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategy for Rising Sea Levels (2016 Report) • Phase 1 (ferry terminal, breakwaters and western shoreline) will be constructed to accommodate 36” of SLR taking into account a 100-year storm event. • Phases 2, 3, and 4 (north and east shorelines) will be elevated to accommodate 16” of SLR during a 100-year storm event.

11. Special Condition: SLR and Flooding Monitoring5-year Monitoring Report • Describe whether 2016 Report is consistent with most up-to-date guidance. • Present data on land settlement since 2016 throughout the public access areas. • Present data based on observations of water levels at the public access areas, including measurements over monitoring period and photographs of public access areas during king tide events.

12. Special Condition: SLR and Flooding Monitoring5-year Monitoring Report • Document any flooding at public access areas, including tide level, rainfall, source and duration of flooding, damage or necessary cleanup, and duration of access closure. • Assess 2016 Report including whether it should be revised based on findings, site conditions, SLR and storm projections, and updated policy guidance.

13. Special Condition: SLR and Flooding Monitoring5-year monitoring report BCDC staff will notify permittees whether Commission: • Accepts report and recommends no changes in permittees’ approach or the permit; • Recommends revisions on basis that report is incomplete; or • Requires revisions to the 2016 Report and/or permit based on findings and information that reveal substantially different circumstances, where revisions necessary to protect public access.

14. Special Condition: SLR and Flooding MonitoringFlooding Report After any flood event that requires closure of public access, submit monitoring report documenting date, location, tide level, rainfall, source of flooding, how long flooding lasted, any damage or necessary cleanup, how long public accesses was closed (if at all), and photos of flooding.

15. Special Condition: SLR and Flooding MonitoringRemediated Lands • If flooding in any public access area where remediation has occurred and for which no further action letter has not been obtained, permitteesshall notify Commission if any additional cleanup and permitting is necessary.

16. Special Condition: SLR Adaptation Planning and Implementation Phases 2-4.Earlier Adaptation. (Phases 2-4 resilient to 16” SLR.) When 12” SLR (compared to 2000) initiate adaption planning process to protect public access from flooding. • Provide work plan describing adaption approach for review and approval by Commission. • Within 6 months of approval (including any necessary permits), implement measures described in plan.

17. Special Condition: SLR Adaptation Planning and Implementation Phase 1-4. Later Adaption. (Phase 1 resilient to 36” of SLR; Phases 2-4 will be resilient to 36” after early adaptation.) • When 30” SLR (compared to 2000) initiate adaption planning process to protect public access from flooding. • Proposed flooding adaptation measures shall not reduce the size or useabilityof required public access or, if unavoidable, equivalent access must be provided nearby. • Commission approval required for any changes to public access.

18. Adapting to Rising Tides Program

19. Adapting to Rising Tides Program