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Gain insights into the current state of U.S. corn and soybean crops, including supply and use data, harvest progress, storage issues, and export trends. Understand the impact of renewable fuel standards and crude oil prices on the market. Explore bio-based market opportunities and input costs. Stay informed on futures trades and economic conditions. Useful resources and expert analysis provided.
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Crop Situation & Outlook 2009 Ag Outlook and Management Seminars Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911
U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA
U.S. Corn Harvest Progress Source: USDA
Iowa Corn Harvest Progress Source: USDA
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA
U.S. Soybean Harvest Progress Source: USDA
Iowa Soybean Harvest Progress Source: USDA
Storage Issues Source: Hurburgh and Elmore, ICM News, 10/15/09
World Corn Production Source: USDA
World Soybean Production Source: USDA
Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS
Exports & Advance Sales(1st 11 weeks of marketing year) Source: USDA, FAS
2009 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS
2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS
Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) 50% GHG Emission Reduction 60% GHG Emission Reduction 20% GHG Emission Reduction If construction started after Dec. 2007
Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD
Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX
Dept. of Energy Projections Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Draft Lifecycle GHG Reductions Source: EPA, May 2009
Bio-based Market Opportunities Source: Informa Economics, Biobased Multi-Client Study, March 2006
Biobased Pathways Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025
Corn 1990 - 2006
Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC
Soybean Futures Trade Source: CFTC
Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT
Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Oct. 30, 2009
Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Recession: Are we done yet? • Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices for the 2009 marketing year • Continued weakness in the dollar helping exports • Most important ag. statistics: Harvest progress, crop production, feed demand • USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $3.55 for corn and $9.20 for soybeans • Futures Nov. 19: Corn $3.79, Soy $9.85 • 2010/11 based on futures Nov. 19: Corn $4.21, Soy $9.80
Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/