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Evolution of Horizontal Inequalities in Madagascar, 1999- 2005

Evolution of Horizontal Inequalities in Madagascar, 1999- 2005. David Stifel (Lafayette) Felix Forster (Lafayette) Chris Barrett (Cornell). Oxford University April, 2008. Overview. Introduction Economic Context Data and Group Dimensions Welfare Ordering of Groups

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Evolution of Horizontal Inequalities in Madagascar, 1999- 2005

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  1. Evolution of Horizontal Inequalities in Madagascar, 1999- 2005 David Stifel (Lafayette) Felix Forster (Lafayette) Chris Barrett (Cornell) Oxford University April, 2008

  2. Overview • Introduction • Economic Context • Data and Group Dimensions • Welfare Ordering of Groups • Econometric Estimates & Differential Returns to Assets • Concluding Remarks

  3. The Setting: Madagascar Economic Context: • Sustained growth in late 1990s • 2001-02: Political crisis • General strikes • Destruction of key infrastructure • 2004-05: • Strong Depreciation of Currency • Rise in international oil and rice prices • Phase-out of Multi-Fibre Agreement • Average Growth: 5 %

  4. Data • Enquête Périodique Auprès des Ménages (EPM), • Nationally representative integrated household survey • Collected by Institut National de la Statistique • Years: 1999; 2001; 2005 • Sample Size: 5,120; 5,080; 11,781 • Repeated Cross-sections

  5. Data • Commune Census, 2001 • Conducted by: • Ilo program of Cornell University • National Malagasy agricultural research institute (FOFIFA) • INSTAT • Covered 1,385 out of 1,392 communes • Used for Remoteness

  6. Measures • Welfare: Per Capita HH Expenditure (Consumption) • Remoteness: Cost of transporting 50kg sack of rice to market – 5 Quintiles + Urban • Gender of HH head: temporarily, permanently female-headed, male-headed • Education of HH head: highest educational attainment – none, primary, secondary(+) • Land holdings: less than 1 HA, 1 – 5 HA, 5+ HA • Ethnicity: Merina ethnic group, other

  7. Distribution of Per Capita Consumption by Education of Household Head

  8. Distribution of Household Expenditure by Temporary/Permanent Female-Headedness

  9. Distribution of HH Expenditure by Remoteness (by Year)

  10. Distribution of HH Expenditure by Land Holdings

  11. Distributions of Per Capita Consumption by Ethnic Group

  12. Determinants of Per Capita Household Consumption

  13. Differential Marginal Effects of Education on Per Capita Consumption

  14. Differential Marginal Effects of Education on Per Capita Consumption

  15. Differential Marginal Effects of Land Holdings on Per Capita Consumption

  16. Differential Marginal Effects of Land Holdings on Per Capita Consumption

  17. Conclusion Three Key Messages • Core group of persistently poor households: • Uneducated • Land poor • Rural & remote • Female-headed • Vertical Inequalities within groups • Persistent horizontal inequalities associated with multiple different identities • Some offsetting or even overcoming (women’s education) • Some reinforcing (land poor)

  18. Conclusion Policy implications: • Gender & Marital Status – what mechanisms? • Land redistribution – not politically feasible • Education & Remoteness – amenable to interventions • Targeted interventions • Unidimensional vs. multidimensional • Education – offset gender & geographic disadvantages

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