US Army Corps of Engineers - Climate Preparedness and Resilience

1. US Army Corps of Engineers - Climate Preparedness and Resilience Kate White, PhD, PE Kathleen.d.white@usace.army.mil Disaster Recovery and Resiliency Webinar April 2014

2. Outline • Climate is changing and will continue to change • Effects vary regionally and impact hydrologic cycle and oceans in many ways • Climate preparedness is more cost-effective than disaster response • USACE may be able to assist Tribes to improve climate preparedness and resilience Atmospheric CO2 has increased about 35% since the start of the industrial revolution, now > than at any time in the last 800,000 yrs

3. Multiple Indicators Measured over Decades Establish that Earth’s Climate is Warming, Impacting Hydrologic Cycle & Ecosystems White arrows indicate increasing trends in measurements Black arrows indicate decreasing trends in measurements All measured trends are consistent with a warming climate source: NOAA NCDC, 2012; Kunkel et al., 2012

4. Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Climate change adaptation is largely about Climate change mitigation is largely about Carbon Water

5. Adaptation to Climate Change and Extreme Events Climate Preparedness and Resilience Benefits: Current Generations Future Generations DISASTER

6. Economic Case for Preparedness: NYC Wastewater

7. It’s Not All About Big Infrastructure Reuters Rick Wilking Sept 2013 CO Reuters Rick Wilking Sept 2013 CO http://www.jandgconcrete.com/Files/Resources/ConcretePipe/ACPA%20EconomicCostsofFailure.pdf

8. It’s Not All About Extreme Events, but Combinations, Too • “Sea level along much of the eastern U.S. was higher than normal for much of June and July 2009, enough to cause significant attention from coastal communities because of the lack of coastal storms that normally cause such anomalies....” • “… unique in that the NE winds were not at a multi-year high or the Florida Current transport at its low. But the coupled effect of the two forces created SL residuals that were at highest levels all along the East Coast.”

9. Working with the Corps • The USACE Tribal Nations Program implements the DoD American Indian/Alaska Native Policy and the USACE Tribal Policy Principles • We acknowledge the wisdom that Tribes bring to the table and how our programs, projects and activities are enhanced by their input. • The primary goals of our program are: • (1) to consult with Tribes that may be affected by USACE projects or policies • (2) to reach out and partner with Tribes on water resources projects. http://www.usace.army.mil/Portals/2/docs/civilworks/tribal/CoP/2012_tribal_wrguide.pdf

10. Example: Quileute Nation Relocation • USACE is currently working with the Quileute Nation on village relocation out of the tsunami inundation zone to higher ground via Tribal Partnership Project (TPP) funding • Potential future preparedness and resilience activities: • Possible Master Plan components for the village relocation; • Possible Ecosystem Restoration Projects on the Quillayute River; • Continued coordination and discussion on the seawall and maintenance of the navigation channel

11. Example: Rio Grande Adaptation Pilot • USACE is conducting climate change adaptation pilot studies in a number of regions • Information developed for these pilots can be used by Tribes in preparing their own adaptation plans and for studies: • Española, NM (General Investigation) includesclimatetrends and projected climate projections in planning sustainable ecosystem restoration for flood risk reduction and watershed management restoration for three Tribes in the Española region of northern New Mexico Historic http://www.corpsclimate.us/rccpad.cfm

12. Example: Santa Clara Pueblo • USACE is partnering with Santa Clara Pueblo on a Section 203 General Investigation study, the Santa Clara Pueblo Watershed Assessment • Address likely future changes to watershed hydrology on the Pueblo’s lands based on observed climate trends and projected climate changes • Special attention to flood risk and water resources development at the Pueblo, including impacts of wildfires • Also builds on the adaptation pilot study Tree scars http://www.corpsclimate.us/rccpad.cfm

13. USACE Progress on Climate Preparedness and Response • USACE progress may benefit Tribes • Policy and guidance based on consistent approaches resulting from collaboration with aligned agencies and partners • Science translation to inform decision-makers, based on best available and actionable science • Tools and methods for use at working staff level • Screening level assessments of vulnerability to climate change that will be refined over time • Training and capacity building • Geospatial tools support knowledge transfer http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/ 13 http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/dcpInterface.html

14. Summary • Climate is changing • USACE is working to understand the impacts that affect our mission and operations • Partnering helps us all prepare for the effects of climate change • USACE guidance and tools may help support Tribes as they plan for climate preparedness and resilience

15. Background slides

16. Single Days and Single Years Don’t Tell Us About Climate Climate change refers to changes in the mean and the extremes of the distribution of weather Natural climate variability – cold years and warm ones – will persist through the periods of faster and slower climate change even as the climate baseline moves, as in this temperature plot where inter-annual variability is shown on top of the climate change trend source: NOAA NCDC, 2012; Kunkel et al., 2012

17. Climate is Changing in Part in Response to Fossil Fuel Combustion Global average temperature and CO2 concentrations have risen substantially since 1880 Most of the warming in the past 50 years has been over land and in the Northern Hemisphere Year-round average temperatures in the U.S. have already risen 2°F in the past 50 years Even the coolest average years since 1980 were all warmer than the 20th century average source: NOAA NCDC, 2010; USGCRP, 2009

18. Warming Projected to Continue in all Emissions Scenarios CMIP5

19. Sea Level Change Relative Sea Level (RSL) Variations of the United States (1854 to 2006) http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

20. Days over 100°F Changing Arctic Sea Ice Declining Arctic Sea Ice Coverage

21. Changing Snow 50-yr trends in precipitation 50-yr trends in snow water content

22. Very Heavy Precipitation Percent changes in the annual amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events, defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2011

23. Climate Change Commitment Requires both mitigation (Avoiding the unmanageable) and adaptation (Managing the unavoidable) Mitigation Adaptation

24. EO 13653 Definitions • Preparedness: • Actions taken to plan, organize, equip, train, and exercise to build, apply, and sustain the capabilities necessary to prevent, protect against, ameliorate the effects of, respond to, and recover from climate change related damages to life, health, property, livelihoods, ecosystems, and national security • Resilience: • Ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions

25. Strategy: Policy and Guidance • Overarching Policy released by ASA-CW 3 June 2011 requires USACE to mainstream adaptation (see http://corpsclimate.us/adaptationpolicy.cfm) • Consistent Datums: • ER 1110-2-8160 Policies for Referencing Project Evaluation Grades to Nationwide Vertical Datums • EM 1110-2-6056 Standards and Procedures for Referencing Project Evaluation Grades to Nationwide Vertical Datums • Sea Level Change: • 1986, letter – consider changing sea levels • 2000, ER 1105-2-100 – sensitivity to historic and NRC high rate sea level change • 2009 and 2011 EC 1165-2-211 and 1165-2-212 – use 3 scenarios • 2013 ER 1100-2-8162 (supersedes 1165-2-212) – use 3 scenarios, signed • 2013 ETL 1100-2-xxx, adaptation, expect before March 2014 • Post-Sandy Flood Risk Recovery Standard: • 2013 ECB 2013-33, Application of Flood Risk Reduction Standard for Sandy Rebuilding Projects • Hydrology: draft ECB on qualitative methods, expected April 2014 25

26. Tools to Implement Policy and Guidance Strategy • Datums (Datum CoP): • USACE Survey Monument Archival and Retrieval Tool (U-SMART) database • Datum compliance tracking tool • Sea Level Change: • Sea level change calculator available to public, web accessible • Sea level calculator supporting Interagency Sandy Sea Level Rise tool • Comparison tool for USACE and NOAA scenarios, draft for NRC 2013 • Simplified method for extreme water levels (waves, tides, surges) in development • Post-Sandy Flood Risk Recovery Standard (FRRS): • Sandy FRRS calculator supporting Interagency Sandy Sea Level Rise tool • Hydrology: • Regional literature syntheses in development, complete CY14 • Developed consistent nationwide (unregulated) hydrology at HUC-4 watershed level for CONUS based on statistically downscaled climate data • Web tool to easily access this hydrology is in development • Phased vulnerability assessments • Coastal (by project) • Watershed (HUC-4 level) 26