Stage Two Assess Threat and Risk

1. Stage Two Assess Threat and Risk Gold Public Order Commander 4.4

2. Stage Two • What are our priorities? • Probability • Seriousness • Imminence • Police only problem • Control measures • Hierarchical mitigation Assess Threat and Risk and Develop a Working Strategy

3. What is a Threat? ‘Threat may be summarised as the source of actual or potential harm (i.e. anything that can cause harm)’ ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

4. The Purpose of a Threat Assessment The purpose of a threat assessment is to provide commanders with clarification of: • What is known • The likely threats • The police responsibility for mitigation. A threat assessment informs the proportionality of the police response

5. Threat Assessment • Who feeds it? • Do we use SAG to oversee threat assessment? • No one nationally agreed model Officers are expected to exercise professional judgement ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

6. Identification Intent Capability Threat Assessment The threat posed can be viewed in these terms: • Identification (of the individuals) • Intent (to cause harm) • Capability (to cause harm) and our ability to determine accurately. Also identified should be the required: • Immediacy of response necessary.

7. What is a Risk? • Risk refers to the possibility of harm occurring, and has been widely accepted as the measurement of both likelihood and impact of an event which could cause harm • Impact x Likelihood = Risk ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

8. Catastrophic 5 M H VH VH VH Significant 4 M H VH VH VH IMPACT Moderate 3 M M H H H Minor 2 L L M M M Insignificant 1 L L L L L Negligible 1 Rare 2 Unlikely 3 Possible 4 Probable 5 LIKELIHOOD

9. What is a Strategy? ‘The overall intention of managing and resolving a police operation.’ ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

10. The Purpose of a Strategy The purpose of a strategy is to establish a set of objectives relevant to the knowledge of the situation and the analysis of the threats and risks presented. ACPO (2010) Manual of Guidance on Keeping the Peace

11. The Strategy should……. • Be unique for each incident • Avoid generic strategies • Be communicated to all personnel employed on an event • Be written in plain language to avoid confusion • Be recorded as part of the audit trail with the rationale.

12. The Strategy should…… • Give careful consideration to the potential liabilities that may be incurred before defining strategic intentions that assume roles for which the police may have no responsibility • Be regularly reviewed, particularly where a change/handover of command occurs • Include event specific operational matters or constraints, if Gold considers that they are relevant to the strategy intentions

13. The Strategy should include: • Create ‘headline’ strategic intentions which reflect the role of the police, local strategic objectives and set the tone (policing style) • Should identify anticipated outcomes • Partners • Include narratives to explain each intention.

14. Examples of Strategic Intentions • To provide a lawful and proportionate policing response • To maintain public order • To prevent crime and provide a reasonable and proportionate response if crime is committed • To work together with event organisers / participants and other agencies to minimise criminal activity and anti-social behaviour associated with the event • To provide an appropriate counter-terrorism response and security advice, commensurate to the threat level

15. Questions