Bringing the Fuzzy Front-End into Focus: Knowledge Management, IT, and R&D

1. Bringing the Fuzzy Front-End into Focus: Knowledge Management, IT, and R&D October 30, 1998 Warren D. Siemens Director, Technology Partnerships & Commercialization Sandia National Laboratories

2. Outline • Overview • Knowledge Mapping or Visualization • Prosperity Games™ • Technology Roadmapping • Integration

3. Challenge • How do we effectively build processes for turning changes in customer needs into sustainable competitive advantage? • Where are we now? Who are our competitors, and where are they? • Where do we want to be? … by when? • How should we get there? • Can we get there in time by ourselves? … or should we partner? … and with whom?

4. Tools • Knowledge Mapping: VxInsight™ software helps identify and classify technology efforts of potential customers, partners, and competitors • Prosperity Games™: seminar-style war games applied to complex technical / policy issues • Technology Roadmapping: process to link customer / market needs, products / services, and technologies • Synergy among the three tools

5. Knowledge Mapping

6. Why Map (Visualize) Knowledge? • Amount and availability of information are increasing (data dumping) • Data mining and knowledge management tools are primarily text-based; profiling and agents may miss important information • Current tools do not reveal implicit structure of information • Humans have the capability to process large amounts of information presented graphically

7. Knowledge Mapping: VxInsight™ • Tool to organize and graphically display large linked data sets • e.g., science citation index, hyperlinked web sites • Can provide new insights for policy makers and corporations wanting a better understanding of past, current and future trends • visualize ebb and flow of activity • ‘see’ the leading edge and who is working it

8. Configurable menus Viewfinder (you are here) box Get detailed information from database by clicking on individual data element Choice of landscape rendering Peak labeling based on choice of database fields, dynamically updated during zooming Mouse buttons control navigation; zoom in or out, recenter Cursor position controls rotation and distance from the terrain (OpenGL) Links between data elements may be shown Limit the data shown by date (or other field) ranging using slider SQL query to underlying database lights up matching data elements Software Capabilities

9. VxInsight™ Process Identify the desired database Navigate and explore the resulting 3-D landscape Pre-process the raw data Science Citation Index from ISI • Compute pairwise similarities • Compute X,Y positions using ordination routines • Load into VxInsight™

10. Application: R&D Investment Decisions • Visualize technical fields using publication citation data • Where do we have advantage? • Where do others have a huge head start? • Do the work ourselves or partner?

11. Application: Institutional Profiles • Map of science provides basis for comparison • Qualitative - in which fields does an institution publish? • Quantitative comparison can be done using traditional data-base methods

12. Citation data investigation of technologies (who, what, trends, etc.) profile institutions (customers, competitors, potential partners) Patent data Transactions data import / export monitoring fraud detection Any data where similarity between object pairs can be calculated using keywords, phrases common characteristics direct links VxInsight™: Use With Any Linked Data

13. Prosperity Games

14. What are Prosperity Games? • Free-form simulation games • Games: structured with objectives, rules, players, competition and cooperation • Simulation: contain real-life scenarios and simplified models of real processes • Free-form: teams plan their futures, then execute their plans by negotiation, rather than by using prepared formulas or algorithms • Compressed time • 5-10 years simulated in ~2 days

15. Strengths of Prosperity Games • Greater participation and involvement than seminars or workshops leading to greater advocacy for ideas in real life • Encourages out-of-the-box thinking since consequences are gamed, not real • Can uncover complex relationships and problems very quickly; compressed time constraints can lead to rapid working solutions • Explores the human dimension of planning, negotiation, competition, and their outcomes

16. Strengths of Prosperity Games (cont.) • Teaming and networking are strengthened due to forced personal interaction • Reveals leadership schisms and lack of consensus on an organization’s purpose, vision, goals; success in the game requires some level of agreement on these things • Reveals priorities through the players’ allocation of scarce resources • Educational experience involving many senses

17. Prosperity Game Process GAME DESIGN GAME PLAY Game Objectives Team Planning Identify - Stakeholders - Interactions Negotiation Game Feedback Create - Scenarios - Resources - Supporting info Negotiation Debrief

18. Objectives explore long-term thinking about tech strategies prepare for a roadmap to economic competitiveness Stakeholders domestic and foreign manufacturers, suppliers, governments, public Scenario develop powerful personal data assistant (PDA) Prosperity Game: Electronics Industry 1994

19. Prosperity Games / Roadmap Links • National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) game had influence on the Electronics Manufacturing Technology Roadmaps developed and published in 1994 • many game participants participated in the roadmap workshops and writing • Biomedical Technology PG included preliminary roadmapping activities that started the roadmap process in an effort sponsored by SNL, DARPA, and the Koop Foundation

20. Prosperity Games: DOE Labs Activities • Several games • Prosperity-Diversity Game • Future@Labs Game • Industrial Partnership Game • Outcomes and influences • Council on Competitiveness National R&D Summits • Legislation to Congressional committees • Changes in Sandia business planning, development, partnership processes

21. Technology Roadmapping

22. What is Technology Roadmapping? • Needs-driven technology planning process to help identify, select, and develop technology alternatives to satisfy a set of product needs • identifying critical product needs that drive technology selection and investment decisions • helping to identify and select appropriate technology alternatives • driving implementation planning by specifying what levels of technology performance are needed when

23. Strengths of Technology Roadmapping • Links investment decisions to business requirements by organizing information • Builds consensus about needs and the alternatives to address them • Mechanism to help forecast developments in targeted areas • Identifies critical technologies and gaps • Framework to coordinate R&D efforts within companies or industries

24. Technology Roadmapping Process Phase I - Preliminary - Yes, we have a problem that needs a roadmap! - Define scope and boundaries - Provide leadership, sponsorship, and resources Phase II - Roadmap Development Phase III - Follow Through - Critique and validate - Develop an imple- mentation plan - Review and update as needed

25. Identify product or focus ID technology alternatives / timelines ID Critical system requirements Prioritize and recommend alternatives Specify major technology areas Document Technology drivers / targets Phase II: Roadmap Development

26. NEMI Roadmap (Electronics Mfg.) Example Roadmap Categories Board Assembly Subcategories Electronic Interconnection Substrates RF Communications Technology Photonics Manufacturing Packaging Board Assembly Precision Electromechanical Assembly Mfg Information & Management Systems Sensors & Automation Rapid Physical & Virtual Prototyping Low Cost Equipment Data-driven Processes PCMCIA CIM & SPC Components

27. explore RM PG RM start RM visualize results pre-RM data pre-PG data visualize results KM Partnership Development Tools: Integration • Knowledge Mapping • identify strengths, current fronts, trends • Prosperity Games • identify need, plan, validation • Technology Roadmapping • identify needs, drivers, gaps, plans • Synthesis of tool outputs aids in ensuring robustness of R&D efforts in face of change

28. Prosperity Games / Roadmapping Links • Biomedical Technology PG included preliminary roadmapping activities that started the roadmap process in an effort sponsored by SNL, DARPA, and the Koop Foundation • National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) was designed to test / validate the concepts developed in the roadmap

29. Knowledge Mapping / Prosperity Game Links • Pre-game • Develop map to show main technical areas of focus for Prosperity Game • Query map for first-cut list of who should attend • good for large companies; can use personal contacts and networking for small companies • Post-game • Use knowledge map to explain areas in which player behavior did not follow expectations • Forecasting based on game trends overlayed on map

30. Knowledge Mapping / Roadmapping Links Pre-roadmap • Develop map to show main technical areas of focus for Roadmap • Query map for first-cut list of who should attend • 70% of top 30 industry and government orgs in a 92-94 semiconductor manufacturing map participated in the NEMI roadmap development

31. Knowledge Mapping / Roadmapping Links Post-roadmap • Monitor progress on Roadmap technologies • where is work moving ahead? behind schedule? • R&D trends / vectors • should the roadmap be updated?

32. Roadmap Monitoring: Example • Anisotropic con-ductive adhesive - new component attachment work • Packaging concern: thin-film stability - new work • Automated guided vehicle system - application

33. Roadmap Monitoring: Example • Neural networks - technology of choice for quality, process control, etc. for electronics manufacturing in years 2001 and beyond • work spreading to fuzzy logic systems and simulated annealing algorithms

34. explore RM PG RM start RM visualize results pre-RM data pre-PG data visualize results KM PG RM KM Technology Planning Tool Evolution Theory - before KM Optimum - with KM

35. KM PG RM 1 2 3 4 Tools Meet the Challenge 1. Where are we now? … Who are our competitors; where are they? 2. Where do we want to be? … by when? 3. How should we get there? 4. Can we get there in time by ourselves? … or should we partner? … with whom?

36. Who to Contact For further information: David Beck, Acting Manager Technology Planning Tools phone (505) 843-4230 fax (505) 843-4228 dfbeck@sandia.gov