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Water Demand Team Brief Update 4 th August

Water Demand Team Brief Update 4 th August. Otaki M Aramaki T Bengtsson M Otaki Y. I. Work in Progress. An Urban Life-Style　Often Requires More Water. Degree of Urbanisation （％） UN Pop Dept. National Domestic Water Use (lpcd) FAO Aquastat. Suggested Modelling Approach.

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Water Demand Team Brief Update 4 th August

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  1. Water Demand Team Brief Update 4th August Otaki M Aramaki T Bengtsson M Otaki Y

  2. I. Work in Progress

  3. An Urban Life-Style　Often Requires More Water Degree of Urbanisation （％） UN Pop Dept National Domestic Water Use (lpcd) FAO Aquastat

  4. Suggested Modelling Approach • Separate models for urban and rural water use - possible to handle the dynamics of urban and rural water use separately, • One layer for each use category – gives more flexibility, • Gives more accurate picture of where in a country the pressure on water resources is high, • Requires estimates of urban and rural water use for each country – often only rough estimates are possible.

  5. Aggregation done by Shen-san 4 min. Land cover data from Chiba Univ. 0.5° gridcells classified as % Urban area 0.5° Population data from Ciesin Improved gridded map of present domestic water use National boundaries map -Urban use polygon layer -Rural use polygon layer Estimates of urban and non-urban domestic per-capita water use in each country Preliminary matrix finished within the next two weeks

  6. SRES Scenarios Additional assumptions Maps of future water use Maps of future water use Maps of future water use Maps of future water use Maps of future water use • Water use scenarios: • Population • Urbanisation • Economic growth • Political priorities • -Technology • -… Urbanisation forecasts, UN Improved gridded map of present domestic water use

  7. II. Urban scenarios – some remarks

  8. Migration, urbanisation The dynamics of domestic water use Urban development and water use Economic Growth Rural development and water use

  9. High population growth in smaller cities Almost half the population growth between 2003 and 2015 is expected to take place in urban centres with less than 1M inhabitants. • For these smaller cities there are fewer water use data, but often (not always!) per-capita water use is lower, because of: • Lack of financial capacity to invest in infrastructure, • Lower technical know-how and managerial skills, • Less political will and prestige.

  10. Rapid urbanisation – lower per-capita consumption • In developing countries urban newcomers tend to use less water than average citizens because of: • - Lower incomes • - Smaller homes • Lower coverage of piped supply • When cities in developing countries grow rapidly average per-capita consumption can be expected to decrease.

  11. Low High High Low The dynamics of urban per-capita water consumption – four cases Economic Growth Stable or increasing pcc Decreasing pcc Rate of Urbanisation Stable or slightly decreasing pcc Increasing pcc

  12. The next steps • Finalise the estimates of urban/non-urban domestic use, • Create the gridded map of present domestic use, • Define the scenarios in detail (needs to be coordinated with other teams), • Develop the maps of future domestic use, • ???…

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