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Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement

Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement.

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Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement

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  1. Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices. INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.

  2. Thetanker market_some issues to consider NEP - Oslo6 October 2010 Erik.Ranheim@INTERTANKO.com Manager Research and Projects

  3. Tanker market • Low freight rates • Many deliveries of new tankers • SH hull tankers marginal • Surplus shibuilding capacity building up? • Positive economic growthbut uncertainty • High oil price

  4. Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic rates – until 01 October $/day Current levels Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO

  5. World GDP and oil demand change % Source. IMF/BP/IEA/Fearnleys

  6. Oil demand

  7. World oil demand Increase inMiddle East, USA, China and ROW** Total oil demand 1Q06-4Q11 mbd mbd Source. IEA

  8. European crude oil import by source mbd – import by source mbd total import Source: IEA

  9. N America crude oil import by source Mbd – import by source Mbd total import Source: IEA/INTERTANKO

  10. OECD Pacific crude oil import by source mbd – import by source mbd total import Source: IEA/INTERTANKO

  11. Chinese crude oil demand and production mbd Source: IEA

  12. Middle East oil production Jan - 2000 to Aug - 2010 mbd Source; IEA

  13. FSU petroleum export, crude oil by outlet and total products mbd Russian oil production reached a record of 10.16M barrels per day in September Source: INTERTANKO/IEA

  14. Product import mbd Source; EIA/IEA/SAJ

  15. European product import by source mbd – import by source mbd total import Source: IEA

  16. US gasoline import mbd Source: EIA

  17. US product export mbd Source; EIA

  18. Oil consumption - by product group % shareNorthern winter season less prevalent European fuel oil share of total: 10% US fuel oil share of total: 3% Source: BP/INTERTANKO

  19. Tanker supply

  20. Orders for new tankers - bn $ $ bn investment m dwt 1988-2002, 15 years – inv $109 bn, yearly average $7.2 bn Yrl av $20 bn Yrl av $43 bn Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO

  21. Tanker fleet development number m dwt Increase 2010-2013 10,000 - 59,999 dwt : 10% 60,000 - 79,999 dwt : 20% 80,000 - 119,999 dwt : 14% 120,000 - 199,999 dwt : 40% +200,000 dwt : 30% Total 10,000 dwt + : 23% Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are moved to 2012

  22. Sales for decommissioning and conversion of tankers and combos m dwt Source: Various /INTERTANKO

  23. Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outTankers > 10,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2008Deliveries and orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard Monitor Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are moved to 2012 Fleet 3,837 408.6 m dwt 100% Orderbook 874 116.4 “ 28% of fleet Not DH 800 28.6 ” 7% of fleet

  24. Tanker • Prices & shipyard capacity

  25. Tanker newbuilding prices m $ Source: Clarkson

  26. World shipyards capacity, deliveries and utilisation rates m cgt Source:Worldyards

  27. Short • term • considerations

  28. Industry OECD oil stocks Days forward demand

  29. Floating storageby segment Number Source: EA Gibson

  30. VLCCs arriving AG next 30 days by hull 1 Dec 2006 until 1 Oct 2010 No Source: Pareto Bassøe AS

  31. The future

  32. Long term opportunities • Population growth • Many Chinese Indians African still do not drive cars • Moderate long term economic growth? • EIA long term 1% increase in oil demand • GHG reduction measures? Oslo Opera tunnel quadrillion Btu

  33. The tanker is market facing • Increasing fleet 2010-2012 • Abating demand 2011? • Russian oil moving eastward • Continued high levels of global oil stocks and expectations that demand growth will ease in coming months is weighing on prices. • Weakening relationship GDP growth and oil demand / expansion services relative to manufacturing Conclusion

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