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Ing. José Luis Luege Tamargo

Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment (CHANGE). March 5, 2009 México City, D.F., México. Drought characterization and monitoring to provide better information during droughts and

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Ing. José Luis Luege Tamargo

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  1. Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment (CHANGE) March 5, 2009 México City, D.F., México Drought characterization and monitoring to provide better information during droughts and inform water allocation decisions: Cooperative monitoring and Planning for Drought in Mexico Ing. José Luis Luege Tamargo Valentina Davydova-Belitskaya & Fernando Romero-Cruz Coordinación General del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional Director General

  2. Monitor de Sequía de América del Norte/ North American Drought Monitor • El mapa es usado por diversas instituciones (INIFAP, CONAFOR, AGROASEMEX, SIAP, CONAGUA, etc.) / The map is used by several institutions. • Se usa como herramienta adicional en la elaboración de dictámenes técnicos de FONDEN y PACC / It is used as an additional tool to provide information for FONDEN and PACC’s technical reports. • Se utiliza como herramienta en análisis y evaluación de riesgos de incendios forestales, particularmente producción de biomasa y estado de vegetación. / It is used as a tool to analyze and evaluate wildfire risks , in particular biomass production and vegetation health. Para su elaboración se aplica proceso estándar en los tres países / To develop the Mexican portion of NADM map the same methodology is applied in three countries. El diagnóstico cubre todo el territorio nacional. / Depiction covers all the country.

  3. INDICADORES DE SEQUÍA / DROUGHT PARAMETERS

  4. DEBILIDADES /WEAKNESSES La red de estaciones usadas es heterogénea y bastante escasa (132 estaciones distribuidas en el país). En la frontera norte este déficit de estaciones es todavía mayor. / The climatic network is heterogeneous and pretty small. Across the northern board this deficit is bigger. El monitor de sequía es una herramienta de diagnóstico y como tal su uso es limitado para la toma de decisiones respecto a planeación. / Drought monitor is a tool for analysis of present conditions, so its use for make decisions and long term planning is limited. El pronóstico climático sirve para extrapolar condiciones de sequía pero no existe un producto que efectúe pronósticos de sequía. / Climate forecast is used to foresee drought conditions, but it doesn’t exist a real drought forecast. Geographical distribution of PRPC stations (NADM data base of 132 stations) • RETOS / CHALLENGES • Incrementar la red de estaciones usadas (¿incluir redes externas?) / Increase the number of climatic stations. • Regionalizar el diagnóstico / Develop blends. • Utilizar nuevas herramientas para desarrollar pronósticos de sequía (por ejemplo redes neuronales) tanto a nivel nacional como regional / Use new tools for developing of drought forecasts (such as neural networks). ?

  5. RETOS / CHALLENGES Actualizarlasdivisiones climáticas, actualmente SON 18 DEBIDO A la ESCASA INFORMACIÓN CLIMATOLÓGICA queestabadisponible al momento de su CÁLCULO. / Update climatic divisions, presently there are only 18, this due to the lack of information available by the time they were calculated. Por ejemplo, Texas, EE.UU., tiene 10 divisiones climáticas. / FOR EXAMPLE, TEXAS ALONE HAS 10 CLIMATIC DIVISIONS… ? ? ? ?

  6. Muchas gracias valentina.davydova@conagua.gob.mx fernando.romero@conagua.gob.mx

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