1 / 13

POWERS PROBABILITIES & PROTEINS

POWERS PROBABILITIES & PROTEINS. The Smallest and The Largest. Mass of an electron 9.11 x 10 -31 kilograms Diameter of living cell 2 x 10 - 8 inches Mass of water .0 x 10 0 grams/cc

cian
Download Presentation

POWERS PROBABILITIES & PROTEINS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. POWERS PROBABILITIES & PROTEINS

  2. The Smallest and The Largest • Mass of an electron 9.11 x 10-31 kilograms • Diameter of living cell 2 x 10 - 8 inches • Mass of water .0 x 10 0 grams/cc • Distance to the sun 9.3 x 10 7 miles • Speed of light 3.0 x 108 meters/sec • National debt 6 x 10 12 dollars • Evolutionary time 1 x 1018 seconds • (30 billion years) • Number of atoms in a mole 6.02 x 1023 • Number of electrons in the 1 x 10 80 • conceived universe

  3. Powers of Ten Name Name 10 -18 atto …. 10 18 quintillion 10 -15 femo…. 10 15 quadrillion 10 -12 pico…. 10 12 trillion 10 -9 nano…. 10 9 billion 10 -6 micro…. 10 6 million 10 -3 milli…. 10 3 thousand 10 -1 tenth…. 10 1 ten

  4. The Evolutionary Premise (I) • “…However improbable we regard (an) event …given enough time it will almost certainly happen at least once ... Time is in fact the hero of the plot…given so much time, the impossible becomes possible, the possible probable, ad the probable virtually certain. One has only to wait: time itself performs miracles.”Dr. George Wald

  5. Evolutionary Premise (II) • “That which has a probability of one percent in a year, such as a 100 year flood, has a 66 percent chance of occurring in 100 years and a 99 percent chance of occurring in 1000 years” Dr. K. E. Boulding

  6. Statistical Evaluation (I) For independent, repeated trials of an experiment with two outcomes, success (p) or failure (q), the probability of a number of successes, k, from a number of trials, n, with a probability, p, for each trial is b = (n, k ) p k q n - k

  7. Statistical Evaluation (II) The probability of no successes, k=0, is b = q n Therefore the probability of at least one success is b = 1 - q n

  8. For large probabilities, such as Boulding uses, calculations follow his premise, but for small probabilities, “virtually certain” success is an illusion. For p = 0.01 and n =100 & 1000 1 - q n = 1 - (.99) 100 = 1 - .36603 = 0.634 = 64.3% 1 - q n = 1 - (.99) 1000 = 1 - .00004= 0.99996 = 99.9% For p = 0.001 and n = 100 & 1000 1 - q n = 1 - (.999) 100 = 1 - 0.9048 = 0.0952 = 9.52% 1- q n = 1 - (.999) 1000 = 1 - 0.3677 = 0.6323 = 63.23%

  9. Protein Translation

  10. A Small Protein Assume a protein of only 100 amino acids (a very small protein). With 20 amino acids the number of possible arrangements of these would be 20100. 20100 = 100130 (approx) For a specific protein, only ONE of these 100130 possibilities is possible.

  11. So, the probability of getting a particular protein by random chance is 1 p = ------ = 0.00000.....130 zeros ..1 10 130 = probability of success q = 1 - p = 0.99999....130 nines = probability of failure

  12. For repeated random trials, the probability for at least one success would be n 1  1 - q n = 1 -  1 - -------  10 130 

  13. To offset this improbability, evolutionary theory demands long time spans. But, even with repetitions a billion times second for 30 billion years the probability is still infinitesimally small, as for n = 10 18 x 10 9 = 10 27 1 - q n = 1 - (0.999.....130 nines..) ^ 10 27 And,  1  1027 p = 1 - q n = 1 -  1 - -------  = 10 -103  10 130

More Related