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Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Biodiversity in South Africa

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Biodiversity in South Africa. Michelle Lau ‘12 Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School, Summer 2010. Woodrow Wilson School STEP Program. STEP: The Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy

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Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Biodiversity in South Africa

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  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Biodiversity in South Africa Michelle Lau ‘12 Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School, Summer 2010

  2. Woodrow Wilson School STEP Program • STEP: The Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy • Goals of the program are to develop an understanding of: • The nature of scientific, technological and environmental problems and opportunities • The specialized methods used for analyzing scientific, technological and environmental issues • The dynamics of science and technology in relation to national and international institutions and organizations

  3. Project Background and Goals • Project aims to investigate the potential impacts to biodiversity and agriculture that result from human responses to climate change • Focus on South Africa because it is a region highly vulnerable to climate change and has a large, diverse agricultural sector • First stage involves preparing data and running crop models • Worked closely with Lyndon Estes, post-doctoral researcher of the Woodrow Wilson School in the STEP Program

  4. What I Did: Data Preparation • Before running the crop models, I prepared wheat and maize yield data received from South Africa • Detrended yield data to remove any market influences • Also prepared soils data and climate data

  5. What I Did: Crop Model Runs • Used DSSAT, which models crop yields using soil, climate, and planting information • Performed a Sensitivity Analysis to determine how sensitive the model was to certain variables • Tuned cultivar coefficients

  6. Reflections • Became familiar with new programs, ArcGIS, DSSAT, R • Learned how to work independently and developed research skills • Will continue to work with post-doctoral researcher into the school year

  7. Thank You! • Lyndon Estes, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Woodrow Wilson School and the Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy • Michael Oppenheimer, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs • David Wilcove, Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs • Grand Challenges Internship Program

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