NOAA’s C limate A ssessment P roactive R esponse I nitiative ( CAPRI )

1. NOAA’s Climate Assessment Proactive Response Initiative(CAPRI) 2011 Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Vancouver, BC October 25, 2011 Rob Neely and Ben Shorr

2. CAPRI and the NOAA Mission • Developed by NOAA’s Damage Assessment, Remediation and Restoration Program (DARRP) • DARRP mission: protecting and restoring coastal and marine resources threatened or injured by oil spills and releases of hazardous substances • Fulfills NOAA trusteeship for marine habitat, species, including anadromous fish

3. Why CAPRI? • Magnitude, timing of threats to coastal/marine resources from oil spills/hazardous substance releases could be directly affected by shifts in environmental conditions attributable to climate change: • Increases in sea level; • Changes in precipitation and seasonal runoff patterns; • Increased intensity/frequency of storm surge events; • Synergistic impacts from these and additional factors.

4. Why CAPRI? • NOAA developed CAPRI as proof of concept with Puget Sound as Pilot Project. • Demonstrates a means by which program will continue to be able to achieve its mission under evolving circumstances as a result of climate change.

5. What is CAPRI? • A scalable framework for developing a “Vulnerability Index” for a coastal area. • Displays relative vulnerabilities of individual sub-regions. • Pilot project developed Vulnerability Indices for four areas within Puget Sound. • Uses web-based and user-friendly mapping tool: Environmental Response and Management Application (ERMA).

6. Snohomish Estuary Lower Duwamish River Commencement Bay Nisqually Estuary/ Olympia

7. How does CAPRI work (Step 1)? • Step 1 – Assign scores ranking level of sensitivity, importance, or threat. • Step 2 – Apply interaction between attribute scores and climate change factors. • Step 3 – Calculate Category Indices and Resource Threat Indices. • Step 4 – Calculate “Combined Vulnerability Index” (CVI) based on Ecosystem/Species and Facility Vulnerability Index and Human Use and Facility Vulnerability Index

8. Corresponding Raw Data Elements Snohomish Pilot Study Area Example Area

9. Ecosystem Sensitivity to Sediment Contamination 2100 / 1.5 Meter Scenario

10. Ecosystem/Species Sensitivity Score 2100 / 1.5 Meter Scenario

11. How does CAPRI work (Step 2)? • Step 1 – Assign scores ranking level of sensitivity, importance, or threat. • Step 2 – Apply interaction between attribute scores and climate change factors. • Step 3 – Calculate Category Indices and Resource Threat Indices. • Step 4 – Calculate “Combined Vulnerability Index” (CVI) based on Ecosystem/Species and Facility Vulnerability Index and Human Use and Facility Index

12. How does CAPRI work (Step 2)? • Climate change factors are scored on a scale of zero (minimal change) to four (significant change). • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007) contains latest findings on climate change science and projections for the 21st century. • CAPRI considers two climate change scenarios and four projection years (2025, 2050, 2075, 2100) in assigning scores (ensemble forecasts developed by UW Climate Impacts Group). • IPCC’s A1B emissions scenario forecast conditions applied at the regional scale. • 1.5 meter SLR by 2100 scenario – to account for possibility of higher rates of sea level rise, CAPRI also runs scaled-up A1B-max scenario.

13. How does CAPRI work? (Step 2) • Puget Sound pilot considers three factors: • Inundation from sea level rise; • Changes in air temperature; • Structural habitat change. • Climate change forecast condition interaction with scored elements for “importance” and “likelihood of contaminant release”.

14. How does CAPRI work (Step 3)? • Step 1 – Assign scores ranking level of sensitivity, importance, or threat. • Step 2 – Apply interaction between attribute scores and climate change factors. • Step 3 – Calculate Category Indices and Resource Threat Indices. • Step 4 – Calculate “Combined Vulnerability Index” (CVI) based on Ecosystem/Species and Facility Vulnerability Index and Human Use and Facility Index

15. Ecosystem/Species Index 2100 / 1.5 Meter Scenario

16. Ecosystem/Species Facility Index 2100 / 1.5 Meter Scenario

17. How does CAPRI work (Step 4)? • Step 1 – Assign scores ranking level of sensitivity, importance, or threat. • Step 2 – Apply interaction between attribute scores and climate change factors. • Step 3 – Calculate Category Indices and Resource Threat Indices. • Step 4 – Calculate “Combined Vulnerability Index” (CVI) based on Ecosystem/Species and Facility Vulnerability Index and Human Use and Facility Index

18. Combined Vulnerability Index 2100 / 1.5 Meter Scenario

19. What are the next steps for NOAA’s CAPRI? • CAPRI Website: http://www.darrp.noaa.gov/northwest/puget_sound/index.html • White Paper and executive summary. • ERMA Website: https://www.erma.unh.edu/pugetsound • Data layers, functionality enhancements in ERMA: • Legends, metadata, analytical methods descriptions; • Additional data layers (e.g., temporal inundation); • Enhance ERMA analytical functions. • Outreach – conferences, prospective partners, stakeholder workshop, etc. • Increased peer review. • Partnerships and funding opportunities.